California Chrome's odds?

[Izzy2742]

In the past ten years, the average odds of the Kentucky Derby favorite has been 4.44

They have won 4/10 runnings. The worst finish was 18/19 in 2009 (Friesan Fire)

The shortest odds was 2-1 (Big Brown), the longest 6-1 (Lookin At Lucky)

The question is, assuming Califronia Chrome is the post-time favorite, what do you think his post-time odds will be? What would you consider "fair" odds?

Please note the above facts are only from the last ten KDs.

[Stillriledup]

It depends on how he trains over the track, how he looks in the mornings leading up to the race, the post draw and whatnut.

If all goes well, and the clockers love him and the reports are that he's thriving, maybe 7-2 or 4-1. Hard to see any horse in a 20 horse field that's under 7-2.

[goatchaser]

It depends on who gets the most feel good story on Derby Day TV. Which I must say Totally ruins the KTY Derby coverage for me. I'm like why is this all about the people? Their sad story. Honestly..I just don't care. Show the Damn race!!

[lamboguy]

we still have a few more prep races to be run, if CALIFORNIA CHROME draws post position #10 he will be between 8/5-2/1. if he draws the rail he would be 4-1 or more.

[Robert Goren]

I think the bias in betting against west coast horses coming east will keep at 7/2 or higher. If he had ran this way in Florida, he would be 5/2. IMO

[DeltaLover]

Looking elsewhere!

I really do not think CC deserves to be the favorite. SAD was a joke especially if you consider the fact that he was running against a few Maidens! His pedigree seems to be on the weak side and more important he has already peaked his form for the year.

I hope the hype will keep on though as it will create some pretty good betting opportunities on other more difficult to spot horses as Wicked Strong was last Saturday!

[horses4courses]

He won't take much money from the NY, FLA areas that contribute much to the pools at CD.
There is, also, a strong school of thought questioning the validity of his races and numbers in California.
That will affect his popularity at the windows throughout the country.
I'll be surprised if he goes off less than 3-1.

[Greyfox]

California Chrome is obviously a very powerful running colt.

The fact that a California bred colt has not won the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1964, that's 50 years, suggests that his final odds will definitely be higher than 5/2 on Derby Day.

[sbcaris]

How many Derby starters in the last 50 years have started in the Ky Derby?
If the percent of starters is equal to the percent of winners there would be no disadvantage?

[sbcaris]

What I meant was how many Derby starters in the last 50 years were bred in California? How many of these were actual contenders?

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

What I meant was how many Derby starters in the last 50 years were bred in California? How many of these were actual contenders?

I don't know.
California in 2012 had a foal crop of 1,600 according to the Jockey Club.
The U.S. total foal crop was 22,500 that year.
These figures are down since the 1900's when something like 40,000 foals were sired a year.
But let's suppose similar figures were true back to the 1960's we see that California produces approximately 7% of the thoroughbred population per year.
We might suspect then, and assuming 20 horse fields, over 50 years (which wasn't the case) that's 1000 runners, that California potentially could have contributed about 70 Cal bred horses over that time to the race.
Ah, but the sad truth is Cal bred runners are, in general, not seemingly as successful as Kentucky stock. So it is doubtful that 70 Cal bred runners made enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby over that period.
So the chances of a Cal bred getting to the Derby in the first place are seemingly lower.
The chances of a Cal bred winning it.....
Well this is the 140th edition of the Kentucky Derby.
From what I can determine California has produced 4 winners, Decidedly being the last and Morvich being the first.
That's 4 out of 139 contests, which figures out to be about 2.87%.

Of course California Chrome might have an excellent chance of winning it.
He's beaten a lot of odds against him being there in the first place having been sired in California.
But I think when the gates close, even if he's the favorite, his odds should be higher than 5/2.
That's my suspicion anyways.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

California Chrome is obviously a very powerful running colt.

The fact that a California bred colt has not won the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1964, that's 50 years, suggests that his final odds will definitely be higher than 5/2 on Derby Day.

Correction:

My mistake. Decidedly won the 1962 Kentucky Derby.

Well that's 52 years then.

Greyfox

[sam i am]

CC was 3/5 against Hoppertunity and Candyboy, hoppertunity will take a lot of action come derby day and CC looked great has 2 great beyers... beat these horses at his leisure...I see 8/5, maybe...the better question is who is going to be 2nd choice? I don't know my key yet but it won't be 8/5 or under 5-1.

SIA

[horses4courses]

The week leading up to the Derby has much to do with odds fluctuations.
The "buzz" goes out on horses who appear to be training better than others.

Obviously, past performances and speed figures carry the most weight.
The public look at those the most, and bets accordingly.

Clocker buzz, also, can cause additional action.
I'm not saying it's the best way to find a Derby winner,
but it does get attention and money at the windows.

We won't know the "buzz" horse (or horses) until early Derby week.
If it happens to be California Chrome, he could go below 5-2.
Hard to see that happening, though, imo.

[Bullet Plane]

Well, in a ten horse field, he would be 8/5.

However, this will be a twenty horse field.

So, I double the 8/5. 1.6 X 2...

And get 3-1 for the Derby.

Because he is a California horse, doesn't really have the speed figures of a Big Brown or Smarty Jones... also might be seen as a speed horse in a race packed with speed...

I could see his getting as high as 4-1.

So, between 3-1 and 4-1.... somewhere in there...