Cairo Prince vs Samraat

[Smarty Cide]

Who is the better derby prospect?

[bgbootha]

I must say that I am amazed by the voting here....as of typing this. Cairo Prince is up 5-3 and I was one of the three.

What could possibly show you that Cairo Prince is still a better option than Samraat?

[Smarty Cide]

he will be 2nd start off a layoff come derby.... he had a long layoff last start. he could bounce back

[Valuist]

How about Cairo Prince vs Constitution? Cairo Prince was considered the top 3 YO all winter in south Florida, and Constitution won the FL Derby. Trip wise, it wasn't a good setup for Cairo Prince, against a slow pace on a speed favoring track, and wide. Constitution had a perfect trip, saving ground just behind the leaders. Considering Pletcher's Derby history and a likely fast pace, I'd take Cairo Prince.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Valuist

How about Cairo Prince vs Constitution? Cairo Prince was considered the top 3 YO all winter in south Florida, and Constitution won the FL Derby. Trip wise, it wasn't a good setup for Cairo Prince, against a slow pace on a speed favoring track, and wide. Constitution had a perfect trip, saving ground just behind the leaders. Considering Pletcher's Derby history and a likely fast pace, I'd take Cairo Prince.

I have the opposite opinion regarding those two.Cairo Prince was in the clear and had no excuse.Constitution while on the rail was kept bottled up a long long time waiting for that hole to open up, and it was a small hole at that when he finally forced his way through. He saved ground but I wouldn't call it an ideal trip.

If you ask me the best 3YO this season at GP was Wildcat Red, and Constitution beat him while making his stakes debut in only his third lifetime start. In retrospect the HolyBull does not look like it was such a tough field.
Keep in mind also that Constitution trounced Wicked Strong in that GP allowance race and he went on to win the Wood. So I wouldn't take his Fla Derby win as a fluke. I think this horse Constitution is one of top contenders for the derby.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I have the opposite opinion regarding those two.Cairo Prince was in the clear and had no excuse.Constitution while on the rail was kept bottled up a long long time waiting for that hole to open up, and it was a small hole at that when he finally forced his way through. He saved ground but I wouldn't call it an ideal trip.

If you ask me the best 3YO this season at GP was Wildcat Red, and Constitution beat him while making his stakes debut in only his third lifetime start. In retrospect the HolyBull does not look like it was such a tough field.
Keep in mind also that Constitution trounced Wicked Strong in that GP allowance race and he went on to win the Wood. So I wouldn't take his Fla Derby win as a fluke. I think this horse Constitution is one of top contenders for the derby.

Only negative I see on the Holy Bull was Cairo Prince burned some money in the FL Derby. Intense Holiday shipped to FG and overcame the speed and rail bias to win the Risen Star. Wicked Strong was 9th in that field and came back to win the Wood. Coup de Grace prompted the pace before tiring badly and he came back to win the Bay Shore.

I liked Constitution in the Florida Derby but I really think that was the time to have him. Pletcher runners often peak in their key preps. Watch the replay again. The hole opened up nicely for him just as the field turned for home. I love when a horse is waiting behind horses; not checking but conserving their energy and waiting for the hole to open up. I was surprised he didn't beat Wildcat Red by more. A big effort from Wildcat Red. Watching the replay again, Cairo Prince was flat. He did lose some ground on the far turn, but it was a dull effort. The UK books have him at 15-1, which is way too high. I suspect he'll be 7-1 or 8-1ish, at which point I don't like him so much.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Valuist

Only negative I see on the Holy Bull was Cairo Prince burned some money in the FL Derby. Intense Holiday shipped to FG and overcame the speed and rail bias to win the Risen Star. Wicked Strong was 9th in that field and came back to win the Wood. Coup de Grace prompted the pace before tiring badly and he came back to win the Bay Shore.

Also out of Florida:

Pablo Del Monte ran a very good 3rd in the Bluegrass after running against Wildcat Red and General A Rod in the Hutcheson and GP Derby.

Medal Count won the Transylvania and then ran 2nd in the Blue Grass out of the Fountain of Youth.

Our Caravan won the Calder Derby by 9 3/4 out of the Fountain of Youth.

We Miss Artie won the Spiral out of the Fountain of Youth.

Danza won the Arkansas Derby out of strong ALW in Florida.

There were a number of others horses that also ran better when they came out of races against that GP group.

There have been a few duds, but I'd have to say that generally speaking, the evidence indicates that the GP Florida 3yos are better than the credit they are getting. I think Wildcat Red, General A Rod, and Cairo Prince are pretty good. The real question to me is the distance.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

I must say that I am amazed by the voting here....as of typing this. Cairo Prince is up 5-3 and I was one of the three.

What could possibly show you that Cairo Prince is still a better option than Samraat?

I do not know. I am in for Samraat. My Capping had him up solidly.

[holmmd]

I am in CP's camp. Reason is simple…I think we've seen the best Samraat has had to offer and its not enough to win the Derby. I cat say the same for CP. Not sure if he will show it in the Derby or not but I do think he has a shot to win if he brings his A-game (ala Holy Bull).

[Thebigguy]

Cairo Prince.

[letswastemoney]

Cairo Prince's trip and finish in the Florida Derby doesn't matter to me, since he wasn't cranked up. With that said, I like both horses almost equally. *Slight nod to Samraat for facing a tough pace in the Wood Memorial.