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04-11-2014, 03:28 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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2014 Kentuck Derby Trends & Angles
I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do.
Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse.......
20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby.......
No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......
Every derby winner last 10 years has raced within 45 days before racing in the derby.......
9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once.......
13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......
Please add any that you are willing to share.........
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04-11-2014, 04:58 PM
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#2
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 334
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......
Please add any that you are willing to share.........
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There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.
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04-11-2014, 05:39 PM
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#3
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bgbootha
There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.
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Found one........
9 of last 10 derby winners won at least one race as a 2 year old of 7 furlongs or longer
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04-11-2014, 07:10 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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KY Derby angles
I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.
As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.
I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice
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04-11-2014, 07:41 PM
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#5
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Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.
As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.
I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice
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Agreed on all counts
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04-12-2014, 09:55 AM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 422
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angles
I disagree: I have been using certain angles for all three legs of the Triple Crown and some of them have been very lucrative. For example, horses who carry Buckpasser in the X passing position and have raced a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race have won much more than their expected share of Derbies, Preaknesses and Belmonts and many of these winners paid off at very solid prices: Super Saver 18 dollars, Summer Bird in Belmont around 12-1 and Drosselmeyer in the Belmont around 12 -1 etch
In fact, wagering only on the above types gets a high ROI in all three legs of the Triple Crown. (as found in my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown).
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04-12-2014, 03:53 PM
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#7
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do..
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I looked at these one by one and here's my take
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse........
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Do they win at a greater rate than in other graded/similar races, or do KY breds, which greatly outnumber other statebreds anyway, just win lots of races nationwide?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby........
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I'd say most if not essentially all active 3YO race 2-4 times before May.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once........
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Given the kinds of horses aimed for the Derby, this seems self evident.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......
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I'd say this is true of most actively-racing 3yos.
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04-12-2014, 07:54 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 565
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In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?
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04-12-2014, 08:10 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
Originally Posted by keithw84
In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?
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What do you consider early? 6 of past 12 derby winners started their career in August or before.
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04-12-2014, 11:10 PM
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#10
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.
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04-13-2014, 06:57 PM
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#11
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.
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I agree. Best Pal ran excellent in 1991. The right horse can do it.
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04-13-2014, 07:16 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,568
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It varies from horse to horse
We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.
Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.
Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.
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04-13-2014, 08:15 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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I like Cali Chrome right now & he's bred in Cali.......I just think he's mountains better of any other horse heading into the derby. Now we just gotta wait for post positions.
I would like to see him work over churchill tho......
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04-13-2014, 10:34 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 454
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Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.
Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.
Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.
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Love this.
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