Using Pace

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by pandy

Do you play mostly longshots?

Somewhat! I'm mostly a pick player, pick 3's, 4's & 5's. I also like boxing tri's.

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

You're playing 5K claimers, and neither know nor care about a trainer's intent?

Come on, Speedy...the horse has no say in what will be a prep race--and what will be a serious win attempt--that's part of Trainer Intent.

And how do you pare down the field to something manageable? You and I are not that different in handicapping methods....somewhere along the line I began using best of last 2---it works for me.
There is so much more to the art of handicapping than just sterile, soulless data. It has to be that way--if not it's just a boring, mindless electronic game.

I guarantee you put a lot more thought into your handicapping than just "playing the numbers over everything else"

have a good day

-NCG

What I'm doing works for me. Once I started doing these things everything got better. That's why I had the software done to do things with the click of a button. If I'm handicapping FTS, I will look at the trainer stats, but I don't know his or hers intent with the horse. I pair down the field by looking at my odds line and by how the horses rank. I also have to look at the "Danger Non-Contenders" horses that are down in the odds line, but may have a 1st or may rank 2nd in two different categories. Nothing works all the time! I lose lots of races, but when I'm able to catch that nice price in the pick bets or tri boxes, it makes up for it. Every race I post is handicapped the same way all the time.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I think every horse has a best way of running and accordingly a best way to distribute energy for its best results. Call those innate characteristics. I would agree that jockeys certainly can alter a horses preference but generally to the detriment of the horse.

In very broad brush strokes, you may be right. However, the remarkably different pace scenarios in races in the US/Canada, when compared with the races in Europe, Australia, South Africa, South America, and wherever else would tend to indicate otherwise. Even within the context of different regions of the US, "pace preferences" are suspect.

When discussing the innate characteristics of horses, it is well to realize that races are an unnatural activity. Even more so when the races are of a specific distance. If energy distribution is an innate characteristics of thoroughbreds, they would tend to run the same way with or without the guidance of a rider.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by traynor

I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Mine a decent size database for information on the races in which a given horse wins or finishes less than a length behind the winner. Correlate that with the horses position and beaten lengths at different points in the race to establish a "pace profile" for that particular horse. Do enough of those, and you will realize that a given horse's "pace preference" is more related to the riding style and preferences of its jockey than to innate characteristics of the horse.

Specifically, unless you have some convincing data to the contrary, to say that "pace is overrated" is an understatement. Again, with a few notable exceptions, horses win races because their jockeys took advantage of opportunities for advancement, and got their mounts to the wire first. (Crude "examples" from a handful of races are not considered "convincing.")

Great Posting...

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by traynor

In very broad brush strokes, you may be right. However, the remarkably different pace scenarios in races in the US/Canada, when compared with the races in Europe, Australia, South Africa, South America, and wherever else would tend to indicate otherwise. Even within the context of different regions of the US, "pace preferences" are suspect.

When discussing the innate characteristics of horses, it is well to realize that races are an unnatural activity. Even more so when the races are of a specific distance. If energy distribution is an innate characteristics of thoroughbreds, they would tend to run the same way with or without the guidance of a rider.

Pace scenarios are a function of surface and not based on some sort of regional custom. I believe that each horse has an optimal energy distribution profile which due to the variables present in any race is not often attained. The better a horse is the more success they will have even in off profile races.

[Capper Al]

Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

I think that your starting point and question are correlated.

What really means that a PF "works"?

I am assuming that the only way to prove it is that it leads to profitable bets, meaning that there exist a know way to "use" it, in such a way to reveal some value.

[classhandicapper]

I would say it like this based on my experience.

Some horses are naturally faster than others. However, in races, it's typically the jockey that determines how much of a horse's speed to use to get position on the lead or near the front of the pack if they deem it to be an advantage on that surface.

Since most riders understand that speed is usually an advantage, they will generally use a horse's speed to get better early position. However, they will typically also try to avoid using a horse too hard early unless they find themselves hung out wide heading into a turn or on a horse that does not rate well.

Within that, you also have to remember that form changes, some horses might break especially well or poorly on that day, riders, trainers and owners can all read the DRF and project the likely pace and try to adjust to give themselves a tactical advantage. Complicating matters more is that multiple connections might adjust and the whole thing might backfire and go differently than expected.

All that said, I think if you stick to the extremes (especially for possible slow paced races), you can usually add some handicapping value to the analysis by looking at running styles and knowing the riders. I say slow paces primarily because races without much speed in them rarely wind up as fast paces (unless the horses are very lightly raced), but races with a lot of speed often don't wind up being fast paces because many connections are smart enough to see the risk and adjust so they don't blow finishing positions by using their horse too hard early.

Finally, when a track is especially speed favoring or tiring, the best riders will notice that also and adjust their level of aggressiveness.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Please remember that the question in this thread isn't about pace theory. It's about pace usage and implementation. There are plenty of threads in PA that argue for and against pace. Here we assume anyone pace figure works and is correct. How would you use it?

This thread jumped the tracks a few posts back. I really don't want to debate all that intellectual mumbo jumbo--but some statements are flat-out ridiculous.

I think it is misleading for one to make the basic assumption (unproven in most cases) that how a particular horse will "distribute its energy" in a given race is predictable enough to be worthwhile. With a (very) few exceptions, horses generally respond to the jockey's urging (or lack thereof) and the trainer's intent (or lack thereof) more than to some hard-coded "pace preference."

Didn't Dr Quirin come up with a brilliant method to determine how a horse will "distribute it's energy"? He devised his Running Style & Speed Points "assumptions" 30+ years ago--proven highly accurate, and still very much in use today.
You're stumbling over your thesaurus trying to make the concept of Pace sound as difficult as possible.

Here's another gem: "Pace scenarios are a function of surface"

Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?

Can you stop being an a-hole?

[fiznow]

What I wonder is, are horses born for a special running style, is it in their blood? Is it a question of breeding? Or are they just trained for one? Would Zenyatta have won her races as a frontrunner? Would American Pharoah have won the triple crown as a closer? (Sorry if this doesn't fit in this thread but it just came to my mind).

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Can you stop being an a-hole?

That's "being an a-hole"? I recently made a valid point about track bias--you came on with one sentence and called me "staggeringly ignorant".

I know it's your site--but at least be fair about what's "being an a-hole". I vehemently disagreed with the previous posters--you took exception with the TONE of my reply.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

That's "being an a-hole"? I recently made a valid point about track bias--you came on with one sentence and called me "staggeringly ignorant".

I know it's your site--but at least be fair about what's "being an a-hole". I vehemently disagreed with the previous posters--you took exception with the TONE of my reply.

Damn right I took exception with the tone. What else should I have took exception to?

This isn't the first time. You have a habit of going off half-cocked on people who don't deserve it.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Didn't Dr Quirin come up with a brilliant method to determine how a horse will "distribute it's energy"? He devised his Running Style & Speed Points "assumptions" 30+ years ago--proven highly accurate, and still very much in use today.
You're stumbling over your thesaurus trying to make the concept of Pace sound as difficult as possible.

Here's another gem: "Pace scenarios are a function of surface"

Hello...Earth to Andy---WTF? Pace scenarios are tweaked due to surface conditions, they arent a "function" of it.

Can we get back to discussing the reality of PACE?

Thanks for the kind words.

With regard to distributing energy, speed points are hardly a "proven highly accurate" measurement. They merely indicate running style.

If the turf course is 12 inches tall and horses running a mile who go the first 6 furlongs in under 1:13 get run over in the stretch (circa old Del Mar turf course) would the surface be responsible for how the pace scenarios play out? Surface conditions are the surface. If they require "tweaking" then perhaps the pace scenarios are a function of the surface. Why else would pace scenarios be different in various racing locations around the world.

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

You're playing 5K claimers, and neither know nor care about a trainer's intent?

Come on, Speedy...the horse has no say in what will be a prep race--and what will be a serious win attempt--that's part of Trainer Intent.

And how do you pare down the field to something manageable? You and I are not that different in handicapping methods....somewhere along the line I began using best of last 2---it works for me.
There is so much more to the art of handicapping than just sterile, soulless data. It has to be that way--if not it's just a boring, mindless electronic game.

I guarantee you put a lot more thought into your handicapping than just "playing the numbers over everything else"

have a good day

-NCG

Here's a little baby bet from today. I didn't look at the trainer, don't know what his intent was, didn't care. I saw a horse who was ranked 1st for selected paceline and 2nd for projected pace figure and projected late pace. Made a simple little bet when the #1 was 9/1 at the gate, only to see it get cut in half to 9/2. These type of horses which I don't see a lot of that rank in the top two of projected pace and late are very good bets.

[Capper Al]

Back to watching Dave's video on Early Speed. At least, he talks about implementing pace.