Donald Trump

[therussmeister]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

George Will has forgotten far more than Donald Trump will ever know.

I've never understood this meme. Why is being forgetful some sort of badge of merit?

[_______]

Originally Posted by _______

The problem is that Trump is unelectable. You can list all the populist imaginings about why that is so but it doesn't change the ground where the election is being held in reality.

And your "polls are wrong because there is a secret cadre of Trump supporters who are afraid to say so out loud" may give you comfort as his numbers deteriorate but if you look at his polling and results in the primaries, there is no evidence it actually exists.

Source for last sentence above:

"Trump did worse than the polling forecast in 19 states; he did better in 15 states. That hardly suggests that Trump outperforms his polling. Still, the difference isn’t so great that we can say Trump usually underperforms his polling. It’s a fairly even split, with Trump missing his average poll by just 1 percentage point in the median state. Two of Trump’s worst performances relative to the polls were in Kansas and Iowa — both states held low-turnout caucuses, which Trump won’t have to deal with in the general election. Overall, Trump’s percentage of the vote versus the polls is about what you’d expect of the average politician."


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...-to-pollsters/

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by OntheRail

... I believe more people support Trump then will admitted it... but in the booth alone they will mark Trump.

One of the parts which I don't follow in your post is why don't these people admit that they support Trump?

This sounds more like propaganda that he really has a massive hidden following. But, they're afraid to be identified. Which can backfire with those too lazy to vote because they think he really has a massive lead and those who oppose him will make an extra effort to vote because he just may have a following who won't admit it publicly.

[_______]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

One of the parts which I don't follow in your post is why don't these people admit that they support Trump?

This sounds more like propaganda that he really has a massive hidden following. But, they're afraid to be identified. Which can backfire with those too lazy to vote because they think he really has a massive lead and those who oppose him will make an extra effort to vote because he just may have a following who won't admit it publicly.

I think there are people who like Trump's ideas but are ashamed to say so. I just don't think their numbers are so great that they can make a difference in 2016.

People, including people like me, have a tendency to overestimate those who agree with them.

We all think we are right. It helps sometimes to look at data.

And be wiling to admit when we are wrong.

[Tom]

You see the attacks - physical attacks - on Trump supporters at rallies.
This is the mentally ill fringe of the left wing, fully supported by the party elite. The left are bottom feeders for the most parts and have no respect for civility or laws.

I am just waiting for one of these demo-thugs to pick the wrong guy to intimidate and wide getting his head blown off on TV. This why they want to take away the second amendment - they know sooner or later THEY will get a just response.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by _______

The problem is that Trump is unelectable. You can list all the populist imaginings about why that is so but it doesn't change the ground where the election is being held in reality.

Trump is likely unelectable, not withstanding a proverbial October Surprise. And the blame for this is on Trump. He is a loose cannon and he is a terrible candidate and he won't listen to the pros who could make him electable. He is a celebrity candidate like Arnold in California or Jessie Ventura in Minnesota, but they were not as inconsistent or antagonistic as Trump.

Trump's popularity is based on his image as a non-politician and as being anti-establishment. That secures his base and the nomination. It is not enough to win the general, but it is still what he is running on.

Hillary can win by making the race about Trump. Trump cannot win by making the race about Hillary, but that is what he is trying to do right now. Presidential elections usually go to the more likeable candidate. This one appears to be heading toward the less unlikeable one.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Trump is likely unelectable, not withstanding a proverbial October Surprise. And the blame for this is on Trump. He is a loose cannon and he is a terrible candidate and he won't listen to the pros who could make him electable. He is a celebrity candidate like Arnold in California or Jessie Ventura in Minnesota, but they were not as inconsistent or antagonistic as Trump.

Trump's popularity is based on his image as a non-politician and as being anti-establishment. That secures his base and the nomination. It is not enough to win the general, but it is still what he is running on.

Hillary can win by making the race about Trump. Trump cannot win by making the race about Hillary, but that is what he is trying to do right now. Presidential elections usually go to the more likeable candidate. This one appears to be heading toward the less unlikeable one.

For once, we agree.

The question is, how many votes are there in the key swing states
that are just so anti-establishment that it plays into Trump's hands?
I'd like to think they can't carry the day, but it will be a few months
before we get a better idea. The anti-Trump contingent is large.

[_______]

Originally Posted by Clocker

Trump is likely unelectable, not withstanding a proverbial October Surprise. And the blame for this is on Trump. He is a loose cannon and he is a terrible candidate and he won't listen to the pros who could make him electable. He is a celebrity candidate like Arnold in California or Jessie Ventura in Minnesota, but they were not as inconsistent or antagonistic as Trump.

Trump's popularity is based on his image as a non-politician and as being anti-establishment. That secures his base and the nomination. It is not enough to win the general, but it is still what he is running on.

Hillary can win by making the race about Trump. Trump cannot win by making the race about Hillary, but that is what he is trying to do right now. Presidential elections usually go to the more likeable candidate. This one appears to be heading toward the less unlikeable one.

His popularity with his base goes beyond not being enough to win the general. It guarenteed he won't.

During the primaries there was a lot of "Teflon Don" talk because his numbers never seemed to suffer regardless of what he said. But that was only if you were looking at a purely Republican audience. He showed a fairly steady decline in support with the general electorate with each new stupidity.

He will recover from the numbers you see now. It will get closer and his base will cite being 4 points behind in RCP average as proof that he is on the road to a win.

But none of it matters. The election was over as soon as he was the candidate. The only debate is how bad it gets for down ballot candidates.

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

The question is, how many votes are there in the key swing states
that are just so anti-establishment that it plays into Trump's hands?

Anti-establishment is not enough to win the election. Anti-Hillary is not enough to win the election.

In the immortal words of James Carville, it's the economy stupid.

Saying he is going to make America great again is still just playing to the base. If Trump can come across with a consistent and reasonable plan for economic growth, he can win. Politics is still about image, and Trump doesn't have an image of a serious leader with a lot of people in the middle of the political spectrum. But Hillary is such a weak candidate, she is certainly beatable.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

I've never understood this meme. Why is being forgetful some sort of badge of merit?

No.
Having a knowledge base that is so much greater in comparison is.
George Will may have forgotten very little.

[letswastemoney]

It's sad Hillary Clinton will win.

Four more years of pandering to the radical left.

The Democratic party isn't the same as it was under Bill Clinton.

If you're not agreeing with them, you must a racist, xenophobic, sexist or other mentally deranged type person.

When the left doesn't get what they want, they shame those who worked against them, as if conservatism equals evil.

[_______]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

It's sad Hillary Clinton will win.

Four more years of pandering to the radical left.

The Democratic party isn't the same as it was under Bill Clinton.

If you're not agreeing with them, you must a racist, xenophobic, sexist or other mentally deranged type person.

When the left doesn't get what they want, they shame those who worked against them, as if conservatism equals evil.

What about the part where conservatives put up a candidate who doesn't indulge in racist, xenophobic, or sexist rhetoric?

I actually thought that was a serious possibility but was proven wrong.

You can blame Democarts for a lot, but miscategorizing Trump's rhetoric isn't included.

[barn32]

I cannot fathom how the right wing can continually overlook the utterly embarrassing contretemps of Donald Trump.

This latest fiasco in Scotland should be the icing on the cake, but it is explained away with aplomb as if nothing out of the ordinary took place.

Amazing.

If it's not apparent by now that Donald Trump is merely an empty suit then it never will be to the cognoscenti.

[horses4courses]

Trump is still in the game,
and he's in the game until he's defeated in Nov.

The whole deal comes down to 8-12 states.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by _______

What about the part where conservatives put up a candidate who doesn't indulge in racist, xenophobic, or sexist rhetoric?

I actually thought that was a serious possibility but was proven wrong.

You can blame Democarts for a lot, but miscategorizing Trump's rhetoric isn't included.

The judge comments were a mistake.

I don't really believe he's a racist though.

As for sexism, I'm not buying that. There are several women in high positions in his company. If he targets someone, it's a specific person, not all women.

I don't have a defense for wanting to ban all Muslims.

He's not a bad person, but he's new to the arena and politics is hard to satisfy everyone. I can never support illegal immigration and any education/health benefits for them over our own citizens. Therefore, I can't support Hillary Clinton.

So Trump it is for me.