Classification in horse race prediction through principal component decomposition

[denniswilliams]

Click to download PDF



https://www.researchgate.net/publica..._decomposition

[Nitro]

Before consuming this dissertation, you had better brush up on your Statistical background particularly on many of the terms used. That’s because many comparisons are made between the various forms of regression.
As follows:

Linear and logistic regressions are important statistical methods for testing relationships between variables and quantifying the direction and strength of the association. Linear regression is used with continuous outcomes, and logistic regression is used with categorical outcomes.

Conditional logistic regression is an extension of logistic regression that allows one to account for stratification and matching. Its main field of application is observational studies.

Support Vector Regression (SVR) is a type of machine learning algorithm used for regression analysis. The goal of SVR is to find a function that approximates the relationship between the input variables and a continuous target variable, while minimizing the prediction error.
Although its suggested that Benter used these two approaches (above), I’m wondering why they stated the following and I quote: “To the best of our knowledge, most published algorithms fail to show systematic profitability.”

Their recommended approach is:
The Partial Least Squares regression (PLS) is a method which reduces the variables, used to predict, to a smaller set of predictors. These predictors are then used to perform a regression.
They claim:
“This approach has been shown to be stable with respect to collinearity and is able to generate unbiased prediction equations from pre-processed datasets. The advantage of PLS over other approaches is that it identifies only relevant predictor variables, while other linear models require pre-selection of potential predictor variables prior to regression analysis. The disadvantage of PLS is that the resulting components don't necessarily correspond to a specific 'factor' unlike typical regressions that identify predictive attributes directly related to the data. “

They list all of the Factors used in the analysis of racing data used for the logistic regression and PLS models. While the majority of those factors are objective in nature there are a few Key factors that are obviously very subjective and could inicate misleading results.

The two very significant factors that are not presented are the horse’s (pre-race) current mental and physical condition, and whether or not the intentions are for the horse to attempt to win the race.
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[wiretowire68]

the easy of terms......................Do not rely on a computer to pick your winners for you..... I agree.. no amount of math..or analytics can give you the winners etc. The ai is getting better, you can only use the statistics and pp's and machine learn to give you ... the old style educated guess. What has happened, the educated part has gotten stronger and stronger, the guess is always still going to be the guess..... The part which does not get enough play is and it is true, Michael Pizzolla said it best. "It is the bet" Knowing how to bet properly... and Let the bet make you. So I personally have enjoyed learning the process of the education in order to understand the mathematics that go into the prediction of horses running 1st, 2nd, 3rd.

The true enjoyment is when you use that analysis and get it right. The fact is being shocked when a horse loses and being peeved when the favorite wins again. Otherwise, it is just a reason to spend our time enjoying a beautiful skilled athletic animal run its guts outs and these little guys guide them around the track trying most of the time to get the best out them to win.

[TrifectaBox]

Despite these papers using a mind boggling amount of equations , they often use very simplistic data points.


Hint.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by TrifectaBox

Despite these papers using a mind boggling amount of equations , they often use very simplistic data points.


Hint.

In real estate we no longer have 'price', we have 'price point'


In basketball we no longer have 'score', we have 'score the ball'


On horse racing analysis shows we no longer have 'left' and 'right' lead we have 'inside' and 'outside' lead.


We no longer have 'used' cars, we have 'preowned' cars.




In all cases, I wonder, WFT is the 'point'?







There must be some relation to Bill Ackman marveling at a 1930's video that shows no obese people.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

In real estate we no longer have 'price', we have 'price point'


In basketball we no longer have 'score', we have 'score the ball'


On horse racing analysis shows we no longer have 'left' and 'right' lead we have 'inside' and 'outside' lead.


We no longer have 'used' cars, we have 'preowned' cars.




In all cases, I wonder, WFT is the 'point'?







There must be some relation to Bill Ackman marveling at a 1930's video that shows no obese people.

My favorite is "knocks down" the shot. I swear it must be contractually impermissible for commentators to describe a 3-point make in any other terms. Except maybe "drains."

On a related tangent, I detest trade jargon and avoid it on the show as much as possible. In the racing office most of my crew consists of well-meaning non-racing persons still in various stages of learning the game. I sometimes advise them to avoid terms like "nickel" claimer" and on the "weeds." That jargon sounds self-conscious, screams wannabe and introduces the sort of imprecision that, however slight or seemingly innocuous, can lead to trouble for a racing official.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

My favorite is "knocks down" the shot. I swear it must be contractually impermissible for commentators to describe a 3-point make in any other terms. Except maybe "drains."

I’m not sure if this counts, but I’m partial to Breen’s “BANG!”

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I’m not sure if this counts, but I’m partial to Breen’s “BANG!”

My favorite was Ralph Lawler the retired LA Clipper announcer, his was BINGO
for making a 3.