Pace Makes The Race: Preakness Edition

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

His Achilles is his LP, doesn't show any late drive and determination . . .

I'm not so sure LP matters that much here. The Preakness has been kind to one pace types. The last time the winner wasn't within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader at the 3/4 pole was I'll Have Another spotting Bodemeister 4. As a fresh horse, I like him more than WOW.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

That young man (the author) needs a LOT more experience with pace before he "gets it."

I ain't young, and I've been at this for a long time.

I get pace.

[coachv30]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I ain't young, and I've been at this for a long time.

I get pace.

[deelo]

$150k supplemented to get Warrior's Charge into the Preakness. Perhaps Cox is really looking to get a rabbit in there

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm not so sure LP matters that much here. The Preakness has been kind to one pace types. The last time the winner wasn't within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader at the 3/4 pole was I'll Have Another spotting Bodemeister 4. As a fresh horse, I like him more than WOW.

Don't tell me people are still using race specific info to handicap. For one thing the sample size is too small and the horses don't know which race their running in. I've heard of track bias but race bias???

[TheGarMan]

Originally Posted by deelo

$150k supplemented to get Warrior's Charge into the Preakness. Perhaps Cox is really looking to get a rabbit in there

I am probably way off base, but I feel like Warriors Charge could "Shackleford" this years Preakness.. Get a quick start, and hold on at the end for a nice piece.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I'm not so sure LP matters that much here. The Preakness has been kind to one pace types. The last time the winner wasn't within 2 1/2 lengths of the leader at the 3/4 pole was I'll Have Another spotting Bodemeister 4. As a fresh horse, I like him more than WOW.

When I first took a look at the PPs for this race, I thought the colt was the one to beat particularly w/them there works mean business, he comes in fresh and McPeek is pointing this colt for this particular race . . . but after further review the LP numbers indicate, and the numbers are subjective, he lacks the critical and necessary lack of response to challenge deep stretch; doesn't have the will, doesn't have the drive, doesn't have determination. Very well may be he doesn't need it here, but I say he does. Nevertheless, I think he gets a piece of it.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Don't tell me people are still using race specific info to handicap. For one thing the sample size is too small and the horses don't know which race their running in. I've heard of track bias but race bias???

Not a race bias. Think of it as a combined distance and track bias. The race is just short enough for a front runner like Oxbow in 2013 to wire yet too slow for deeper closers to wear the susans.

In other words, I'm tossing WWW and Bourbon from the win assuming one or both start while giving WOW, Signalman, Warrior's Charge, and Improbable stronger looks.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Not a race bias. Think of it as a combined distance and track bias. The race is just short enough for a front runner like Oxbow in 2013 to wire yet too slow for deeper closers to wear the susans.

In other words, I'm tossing WWW and Bourbon from the win assuming one or both start while giving WOW, Signalman, Warrior's Charge, and Improbable stronger looks.

Track biases are usually just path, pace and ability biases.
As far as distance, that's only a factor with a significant distance change. Some think a measly 1/16 is going to make a big difference when a slight change in pace can easily do away with that. I remember when Honest Pleasure tired late and got beat in a big stakes at 1 1/8 miles and was discounted when he stretched out to 1 1/4 miles. With a slightly slower pace he just got nipped by the great Forego by a short nose.

I like Improbable merely because he has shown he's the best at the nearly identical Preakness distance. All he has to do is run his race and get a clean trip.

[bpiets]

I think an Improbable & Signalman exator is a very good possibility...the others must yet prove themselves but Winwinwin has the most to prove having had troubled races so often ...but his times are very good...

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by bpiets

I think an Improbable & Signalman exator is a very good possibility...the others must yet prove themselves but Winwinwin has the most to prove having had troubled races so often ...but his times are very good...

Lots of love for Signalman... has he sniffed a 90 beyer? He got absolutely trounced in the FOY and finished behind Vekoma and Win Win Win in the Bluegrass. Even after WWW got checked hard on the turn. Hes a poor man's Free Drop Billy.

[Fightingirish51195]

Improbable by 5 plus lengths

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Track biases are usually just path, pace and ability biases.
As far as distance, that's only a factor with a significant distance change. Some think a measly 1/16 is going to make a big difference when a slight change in pace can easily do away with that. I remember when Honest Pleasure tired late and got beat in a big stakes at 1 1/8 miles and was discounted when he stretched out to 1 1/4 miles. With a slightly slower pace he just got nipped by the great Forego by a short nose.

I like Improbable merely because he has shown he's the best at the nearly identical Preakness distance. All he has to do is run his race and get a clean trip.

I've gotta disagree w/ya regarding that "measly 1/16" of a mile and the "nearly identical Preakness distance." It may not seem like much . . . but a horse runs that sixteenth in about 6 seconds @ about 5 lengths a second that is roughly 30 lengths.

I also favor Improbable to win the Preakness, but not because of the "nearly identical distance", rather because it is likely he'll get a fast dry track; he hasn't done well and some have describe his running style as "climbing" when racing on the sloppy and I agree, in the last two he just hasn't been able to get a hold of the racetrack surface to demonstrate his athletic ability. Hopefully on the dry fast and w/Money Mike up, he'll get a clear path and a good hold on the surface and we'll once again, before the end of his racing career, we'll be fortunate to see the full majesty of that elastic stride . . .

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I've gotta disagree w/ya regarding that "measly 1/16" of a mile and the "nearly identical Preakness distance." It may not seem like much . . . but a horse runs that sixteenth in about 6 seconds @ about 5 lengths a second that is roughly 30 lengths.

I also favor Improbable to win the Preakness, but not because of the "nearly identical distance", rather because it is likely he'll get a fast dry track; he hasn't done well and some have describe his running style as "climbing" when racing on the sloppy and I agree, in the last two he just hasn't been able to get a hold of the racetrack surface to demonstrate his athletic ability. Hopefully on the dry fast and w/Money Mike up, he'll get a clear path and a good hold on the surface and we'll once again, before the end of his racing career, we'll be fortunate to see the full majesty of that elastic stride . . .

Have a funny feeling he may dominate saturday