Can Sports Betting on Track and Satellite Save Racing?

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by DeanT

It is here pretty much. Live handle is cut about in half since before slots. Yep, half! We are getting killed by alternative gaming.



We are a unique breed arent we?

You say that live handle has been cut in half since the slots....do you think the slots are the only reason? I think ADW's have had a huge impact and so has the rise of on line gambling, poker, etc(alternative gaming, like you say) which encourages people to stay at home and away from the live racing. Also, throw in the piss poor marketing of the sport(go baby go?????) and one can maybe realize that it isnt just the slots......

[BlueShoe]

In the standard sports betting practice of choosing a side in football or baskekball and then putting up 11 to 10 the vigorish is 4 1/2 percent.If you can do better by shoping around or going offshore,great,but this has been sop at both legal and illegal books for decades.

[andymays]

There's a good chance that this thread ends up in the hands of a couple of Racing reporters tomorrow and getting the idea out there is the first step in creating a movement toward Sports Betting.

If there is one thing I've learned it's that you absolutely never know what can happen if you take a shot! If you don't take a shot then you literally will never know!

[Irish Boy]

Originally Posted by andymays

I think it was a non-starter two years ago but not today. Everyone and everything is on the table if you ask. The problem is that nobody is asking.

It's not a track problem, it's a federal law problem, and that law isn't going anywhere. If anything, the federal gambling restrictions are getting more onerous. You just can't do it, period.

[proximity]

Originally Posted by Cangamble

It takes the whole industry to do it, or at least about 5 or 6 major tracks to do it.
And I never said it would be done. The industry is far too dysfunctional to erase their mindsets and move into the future.

great post as most players are not going to abruptly adjust their wagering habits just because one track suddenly lowers takeout. most of us would still churn a good portion of the money back into other tracks.... who didn't blink.... and still had the normal takeouts.

numbers aside though, overall you're definitely right. 20% is not the optimum takeout to maximimize revenues.

the world may be better with less nuclear weapons, but who wants to be first to disarm?

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

You say that live handle has been cut in half since the slots....do you think the slots are the only reason? I think ADW's have had a huge impact and so has the rise of on line gambling, poker, etc(alternative gaming, like you say) which encourages people to stay at home and away from the live racing. Also, throw in the piss poor marketing of the sport(go baby go?????) and one can maybe realize that it isnt just the slots......

Many reasons of course. But they are all a drag on horseplayers wallets. So I guess that is my point.

As to your question about lower takes, this kid just learned racing at 5% takes via betfair. He will prolly push through several hundred million this year in handle. He trades so it is a little different, but that is the way the game is played at low takeout. Not bad considering a year ago he never even watched a horse race.

http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Too bad you are not in TO. You could come and bet with a friend of mine. He bets UK races on betfair, and during the day might put $200,000 thru at 5% takeout. Later we head to the track. His handle is about $20. Sometimes $40. He can not find an edge at the track betting into the teeth of 22% takes, so he has a beer, makes one or two $20 bets, chats with his friends and has something to eat.

Betting would triple or more within 5 years if we went to 10% takeouts. There is no doubt in my mind.

Good info....I would guess there are more whales out there than I thought! Definitley simplifies things then because with that thought, the target for tracks really is the whales and it definitely changes the strategies a lot from their end.....do they currently have one?

I wish I had a friend that put 200K through the windows.....I am thinking you get some good dinners on nights you are with him/her and they score big!

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by DeanT

Many reasons of course. But they are all a drag on horseplayers wallets. So I guess that is my point.

As to your question about lower takes, this kid just learned racing at 5% takes via betfair. He will prolly push through several hundred million this year in handle. He trades so it is a little different, but that is the way the game is played at low takeout.

http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/

Several hundred million? OK-I am on my way up there...maybe he needs an assistant?


Sounds like you are a Betfair fan?

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by andymays

There's a good chance that this thread ends up in the hands of a couple of Racing reporters tomorrow and getting the idea out there is the first step in creating a movement toward Sports Betting.

If there is one thing I've learned it's that you absolutely never know what can happen if you take a shot! If you don't take a shot then you literally will never know!

Andy,


Based on what I have seen from you, there is more than a "good shot" of this post ending up in the hands of racing reporters....I have your odds at 1 to 2 and my takeout is 12 percent.....

[DeanT]

It's not whales Relwob, it is normal people.

Think Etrade. A person who is trading $1000 trades would do very few at 20% commissions. They would buy a stock at $1 and could not sell it until it hit $1.20. They might do "$5000 of handle" a year.

Now change that to a $5 trade. He could sell that stock at $1.02 and make money. That same person, who is not a big trader, or a whale, will suddenly push millions through. This is the same thing. Low rake explodes players handles and they do not have to be a whale.

Stock volumes went from a few million shares a day to a few billion shares a day.

[andymays]

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

Andy,


Based on what I have seen from you, there is more than a "good shot" of this post ending up in the hands of racing reporters....I have your odds at 1 to 2 and my takeout is 12 percent.....

[andymays]

Originally Posted by DeanT

It's not whales Relwob, it is normal people.

Think Etrade. A person who is trading $1000 trades would do very few at 20% commissions. They would buy a stock at $1 and could not sell it until it hit $1.20. They might do "$5000 of handle" a year.

Now change that to a $5 trade. He could sell that stock at $1.02 and make money. That same person, who is not a big trader, or a whale, will suddenly push millions through. This is the same thing. Low rake explodes players handles and they do not have to be a whale.

Dean, everything you say makes sense. Really, how do we get there? Isn't what you're suggesting an excercise in futility in the United States for one reason or another.

[Warren Henry]

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

Just remember that however much fun it is to propose this as a solution, you can't do it anywhere except Nevada without a change in federal law, and good luck changing that.

Just about as much chance as legalizing prostitution at the tracks. I personally like sports betting, sex etc. I am not into drugs other than alcohol, but don't care if others do it. If you could dispense all of these things only at the track, you could save racing AND raise takeout. But why discuss it - it ain't gonna happen.

I remember in the old days there were always a few "questionable" young ladies hovering around the $50 windows. Racing was healthy then. Wish we could go back.

[Relwob Owner]

Originally Posted by DeanT

It's not whales Relwob, it is normal people.

Think Etrade. A person who is trading $1000 trades would do very few at 20% commissions. They would buy a stock at $1 and could not sell it until it hit $1.20. They might do "$5000 of handle" a year.

Now change that to a $5 trade. He could sell that stock at $1.02 and make money. That same person, who is not a big trader, or a whale, will suddenly push millions through. This is the same thing. Low rake explodes players handles and they do not have to be a whale.

Stock volumes went from a few million shares a day to a few billion shares a day.

Good info....I am now starting to see the takeout concept more clearly and am definitely catching on to the churn idea and that lower takeout equals more available to put throught the window....been betting for 20 plus years and never really paid much attention to takeout til I hit the forum....good stuff

[DeanT]

Originally Posted by andymays

There's a good chance that this thread ends up in the hands of a couple of Racing reporters tomorrow and getting the idea out there is the first step in creating a movement toward Sports Betting.

If there is one thing I've learned it's that you absolutely never know what can happen if you take a shot! If you don't take a shot then you literally will never know!

Someone told me that everything is on the table in Cali. I hope you make some hay out of this! Just make sure the powers that be know that there is something in it for the racing fan, so we dont get a deal like the slots deals