Can Sports Betting on Track and Satellite Save Racing? - Page 2 - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

phatbastard · 07-20-2009, 08:24 PM

that remains to be seen.....they truly think they will have str8 betting

fmolf · 07-20-2009, 08:54 PM

the reason they wereencouraging money on new york was because they would have taken a bath if new england covered.the way they encourage people to bet ny is to give them extra points or give them a money line.
I agree Andy i think it would help.It couldn't hurt,my son just got back to new york after living in delaware and he said the sports betting will be similar to the white parlay tickets, where you choose between three and ten teams,ties lose and the payoffs are horrible underlaid.

Irish Boy · 07-20-2009, 08:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fmolf

the reason they wereencouraging money on new york was because they would have taken a bath if new england covered.the way they encourage people to bet ny is to give them extra points or give them a money line.

About 2/3rds of the money on the spread came in on New York as well.

Relwob Owner · 07-20-2009, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

That's a myth. Very few books try to balance money in each side. Books bet on teams just like bettors do, because bettors are (over time) wrong in very predictable ways. I go back to the 2008 super bowl because it's a clear example, but there are a handful of glaring ones each week- the books were actively avoiding balancing the action. They wanted money to roll in on New York, and encouraged betting on New York throughout the week... then got reamed (something like 95% of the money bet on the moneyline was bet on New York, and they had to pay it out at 4 to 1. Ouch.) This happens every week, and Vegas wins some and loses some.

The lines move together because most lines come from a single consortium. Books don't want to be the part of a middling game played by bettors.

You say that Vegas books doesnt want to balance money.....why not? Getting the same amount on both sides is a guaranteed win of the juice while having uneven action is a gamble on their part.....you say that gamblers are "wrong in predictable ways" but I dont see the sense in the casinos gambling when they can be guaranteed a win......

Irish Boy · 07-20-2009, 09:21 PM

First, balancing the money is harder than it sounds. Casinos avoid having to move the lines like the plague, especially when they've been set at certain points (3, 3.5, 7 are prominent examples). The last thing in the world they want is sharps being able to play both sides of a middle, especially because these are the types of moves that are most used by squares.

The principal reason why books take uneven action is because, despite the fact that sports bets are essentially binary (you win or lose), the square bettor regularly wins less than 50% of his bets. I don't feel like going through mathematically, but if you start form this premise, it follows algebrecally that the books will win more money by betting against the incorrect majority than they would by balancing action, especially since the public's mistakes are entirely predictable, while hitting that perfect 50/50 line is much tougher.

andymays · 07-20-2009, 09:52 PM

Just to get it back on track a little.

Can Sports Betting on Track and Satellite Save Racing?

Relwob Owner · 07-20-2009, 09:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andymays

Just to get it back on track a little.

Can Sports Betting on Track and Satellite Save Racing?

I am sure it would have some logistical barriers.....however, it definitely couldnt hurt. One thing that you did point out which I think would be huge is that it would help with the younger crowd. You would have people who already are gambling near to the sport and more likely to cross over.

cj · 07-20-2009, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Relwob Owner

I am sure it would have some logistical barriers.....however, it definitely couldnt hurt!

Of course it could hurt. Didn't we hear this same argument about slots? I would imagine many horseplayers would divert their action to one with a 5% takeout, while approximately ZERO sports bettors would be betting on horses.

andymays · 07-20-2009, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Of course it could hurt. Didn't we hear this same argument about slots? I would imagine many horseplayers would divert their action to one with a 5% takeout, while approximately ZERO sports bettors would be betting on horses.

I believe it's more likely to work the other way around. Many Sports Bettors will play the Horses instead. Mainly because of the odds. Sports Bettors think 6-1 on a three teamer is great but wait till they invest $20 and get a couple thousand back! Just one time gets em!

Irish Boy · 07-20-2009, 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Of course it could hurt. Didn't we hear this same argument about slots? I would imagine many horseplayers would divert their action to one with a 5% takeout, while approximately ZERO sports bettors would be betting on horses.

I'm not sure that's a perfect analogy. Slots is constant action, non-stop. Sports betting requires a bet, then 2-3 hours of inaction. If you stay at the place of betting for those hours, and you have money to spend, there's a good chance you drop some money on the horses as well. At the very least, getting feet in the door helps. And I bet that there's a high correlation of would-be horse players and sports bettors than there is for slots players and horse players.

Relwob Owner · 07-20-2009, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

Of course it could hurt. Didn't we hear this same argument about slots? I would imagine many horseplayers would divert their action to one with a 5% takeout, while approximately ZERO sports bettors would be betting on horses.

Racing could get worse than it is now? Doubt it.....

You say that "many horseplayers would divert their action to one with a 5% takeout"....so, you think that if sports betting and horse racing were at one place, a horseplayer would suddenly figure out that they can bet on sports? I think it is safe to assume most horseplayers already know about sports betting and would keep their money on horses.....plus, if I am not mistaken, the takeout isnt 5 percent on sports betting, it is 10 and in some places, even higher on over/under bets.......

Plus, I think if someone came to sit and bet on a sporting event you can be fairly sure that the person would also bet on horses....

Relwob Owner · 07-20-2009, 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

I'm not sure that's a perfect analogy. Slots is constant action, non-stop. Sports betting requires a bet, then 2-3 hours of inaction. If you stay at the place of betting for those hours, and you have money to spend, there's a good chance you drop some money on the horses as well. At the very least, getting feet in the door helps. And I bet that there's a high correlation of would-be horse players and sports bettors than there is for slots players and horse players.

Great point about the correlation of slots/ horse bettors and sports/horse bettors. Take Charlestonw for example-with their setup, the slots are so separate from the horses, people never even know there is racing. If you had sports betting, the two could easily intermingled and my guess would be a higher overall handle for each.

Irish Boy · 07-20-2009, 10:14 PM

I'd be curious to know how the betting breaks down at books in Vegas. Someone out there knows, I'm sure. I wouldn't be shocked if your average Thursday baseball crowd plays races between games. You're not getting a ton of extra horse action during March Madness... although winners are more likely to try to "press their luck" if their on premesis.

One thing that I've always found interesting is that horse players, in general and at least anecdotally, are awful sports bettors. It's probably hard to master a number of sports. (I suck at handicapping horses... doesn't keep me from trying though).

Jeff P · 07-20-2009, 10:17 PM

Allow me to suggest something completely out there.

Why should racing have to even think about resorting to gambling games other than racing to save racing?

Do gambling games other than racing have the ability to kick racing's ass when it comes to creating new customers and growing handle?

If so, why?

Hint: takeout.

Slots are immensely popular. But then aren't most slot machines in this day and age programmed to return more than 90 cents for every dollar wagered? And that equates to (what?) less than 10 percent takeout, right?

The vig (house edge) on the line at a typical footbal game at Pinnacle was (what?) 10 percent? Again, that equates to 10 percent takeout, right?

Instead of using other forms of gambling (that offer lower takeout than racing) to "save" racing...

Is it too much of a stretch to think maybe it's time for racing to stand up and COMPETE with the other forms of low takeout gambling that have been kicking racing's ass for more than a decade?

Color me blind deaf and dumb if you want. But I happen to think that racing offered at 9 to 10 percent takeout every pool everywhere every day (marketed as the best gambling game on the planet) very quickly turns things around and finds itself kicking the collective asses of every other gambling game known to man.

-jp

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Relwob Owner · 07-20-2009, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Irish Boy

I'd be curious to know how the betting breaks down at books in Vegas. Someone out there knows, I'm sure. I wouldn't be shocked if your average Thursday baseball crowd plays races between games. You're not getting a ton of extra horse action during March Madness... although winners are more likely to try to "press their luck" if their on premesis.

One thing that I've always found interesting is that horse players, in general and at least anecdotally, are awful sports bettors. It's probably hard to master a number of sports. (I suck at handicapping horses... doesn't keep me from trying though).

In Vegas, you can see it happening in the sports books(if I remember correctly-it has been a few years) .The horses and sports books are side by side at most places and you can see people doing both all day and night long....