AROGATE dilemma

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I am going with the theory that Dubai took a lot out of him (combination of a spetacular effort with the travel back from Dubai). As emtpy as he was 2 starts ago, I think his Pacific Classic effort was very good. Wide ct, wide far turn, had to shift out in lane, had to run down a very good horse who had a very soft trip on the lead through what appeared to be very soft fractions. I belive that horses generally curve back into form So to go from awful to very good just means to me that he will come back with an excellent effort next time out. I think we see Arrogate at his best next time out.

So in other words, we should ignore the fact that Gun Runner was in the same race in Dubai and finished 2nd (and based on the fractions and track condition probably expended even more energy than Arrogate). Yet, has run very nicely since its return to racing in the States.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Nitro

So in other words, we should ignore the fact that Gun Runner was in the same race in Dubai and finished 2nd (and based on the fractions and track condition probably expended even more energy than Arrogate). Yet, has run very nicely since its return to racing in the States.

yea, these machines all should respond to different events the same.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

yea, these machines all should respond to different events the same.

Now there’s brilliant remark! If they were “machines” there would be no concerns about their physical or mental condition.

I think it’s odd that so many are trying to use the Dubai race as an excuse for Arrogate’s less than stellar performances lately.

When in fact both Arrogate and Gun Runner ran in the SAME event! And as I mentioned I believe Gun Runner may have extended itself even more by trying to maintain the lead in the stretch after running close to and on the lead for the entire race on a racing surface that certainly wasn’t conducive to sustaining speed at all.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

Now there’s brilliant remark! If they were “machines” there would be no concerns about their physical or mental condition.

I think it’s odd that so many are trying to use the Dubai race as an excuse for Arrogate’s less than stellar performances lately.

When in fact both Arrogate and Gun Runner ran in the SAME event! And as I mentioned I believe Gun Runner may have extended itself even more by trying to maintain the lead in the stretch after running close to and on the lead for the entire race on a racing surface that certainly wasn’t conducive to sustaining speed at all.

1) The point is one horse may handle the Dubai trip fine another may not.

2) Arrogate spotted Gun Runner 15 lengths at the start circled wide and beat him easy in Dubai. If bias and pace (I have no idea) were in Arrogates favor, so what,does not change what an amazing effort it was?

3) We know Arrogate was awful 2 starts ago(why he regressed so badly is not really important (but he isn't the first horse to regress off an amazing effort and not the first horse to come back from Dubai and not race well). However, similar to CH, I thought Arrogate ran very well (not his best) in the Pacific Classic. Him going from where he was 2 starts ago to where he was i the Pacific Classic is a signal to me that we will see the real Arrogate next time out.

To clarify, I would rate his effort in Dubai as A++, his effort 2 back as an F, and his effort in the Pacific classic as a B+. Going from an F to a B+, the next step logically is at least an A-, likely an A and knowing what Baffert is capable of an A+ certainly seems within range. I guess "at his best" as i stated was poor wording. I did not mean he would run his best, I meant I expect him to run on par with his best efforts against Chrome and the Travers. I doubt we will ever see another effort like the one in Dubai again.

[dilanesp]

NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.

[cj]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.

Of course it could be a million other things that have hurt Arrogate other than some Dubai bounce, or any bounce at all.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

1) The point is one horse may handle the Dubai trip fine another may not.
2) Arrogate spotted Gun Runner 15 lengths at the start circled wide and beat him easy in Dubai. If bias and pace (I have no idea) were in Arrogates favor, so what,does not change what an amazing effort it was?
I doubt we will ever see another effort like the one in Dubai again.

I guarantee that had the Dubai racing surface played favorably to ALL runners that Arrogate might not have even finished in the money with the terrible start it had. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason it won that 1 ¼ mile race was because the front running entries just couldn’t endure that pace over that distance and racing surface. The poor start was probably a blessing in disguise! (If you followed the other races that day in Dubai you might have noticed the Mind Your Biscuits also closed a ton to win that Big Sprint race. Funny how that one had also come back after that race to win another Big Sprint race at Belmont!)

Originally Posted by dilanesp

NITRO, you are a good handicapper. You know, for instance, that some horses need a lot of spacing between their races and a lot of time off, and other horses can bounce right back with a great performance on short rest.

So Gun Runner didn't Dubai bounce and Arrogate might have. That's completely possible! Two different horses, two different form cycles, two different physical conditions.

I certainly agree that each horse is different. However, I never believed in the “bounce” theory. Besides Arrogate certainly has sufficient time between races to recuperate. My overall suggestion is that people should consider the overall record of Speed & Stamina of an animal before making ludicrous comparisons to those Great horses of days gone by.

[lamboguy]

i concur

[dilanesp]

I agree about the ludicrous comparisons. We really don't realize what a career looks like in modern horse racing, because so few horses have them.

Arrogate strung 4 monster races in a row, which was a significant achievement, but it isn't the same as the great careers that the all time great horses had.

Arrogate might be something comparable to Noor, who ran a handful of races that are among the greatest in the history of American racing, but also had some stupid losses and didn't run enough to prove his true greatness. But Arrogate is nothing like Secretatiat, Spectacular Bid, etc., that he had been compared to.

[cj]

There is no way to compare the careers of past generations to those of today. There is no incentive for horses to race more due to the huge purses. I mean, just look at Arrogate's career earnings. Further, horses probably can't race as often, mostly due to race day medications (especially Lasix) in my opinion. Trainers have to use them to keep up with others, but it also means races take a lot more out of the horse.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I guarantee that had the Dubai racing surface played favorably to ALL runners that Arrogate might not have even finished in the money with the terrible start it had. As far as I’m concerned, the only reason it won that 1 ¼ mile race was because the front running entries just couldn’t endure that pace over that distance and racing surface. The poor start was probably a blessing in disguise! (If you followed the other races that day in Dubai you might have noticed the Mind Your Biscuits also closed a ton to win that Big Sprint race. Funny how that one had also come back after that race to win another Big Sprint race at Belmont!)



I certainly agree that each horse is different. However, I never believed in the “bounce” theory. Besides Arrogate certainly has sufficient time between races to recuperate. My overall suggestion is that people should consider the overall record of Speed & Stamina of an animal before making ludicrous comparisons to those Great horses of days gone by.

I am so confused. Given that tremendous bias in Dubai, you certainly would have had to downgrade Mind your Bicuit's chances when he came back to Belmont. But he won(easy if I recall correctly). Go figure. Confusing game.

Regarding bounce theory, not a huge part of my capping, but whenever a horse runs an extraordinary performance, it I always consider it within the realm of possibility that he/she may regress and perhaps regress badly. I am sure a few bridgejumpers wish they considered the bounce theory when they lost a huge amount of money on Arrogate to show.

The good news is that when/if Arrogate races against Gun Runner, you can bet Gun Runner and I will bet Arrogate. That is what makes this game so fun.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Grits

DILANE. SHUT. UP.

You really believe only upstate NY women are at Saratoga Racecourse? You roll out this crap out about every three years. Same old, same old.

What you know about Saratoga Springs, NY wouldn't span the head of a pin. What you know about the National Historic Register of Places, and what is required for these buildings, private homes, neighborhoods, etc to remain as such...is even less.

(The track has long been on the Historic Register and the grandstand is not creaky. If it didn't collapse when Rachel won the Woodward, it ain't gonna.)

Grits great post!

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

The good news is that when/if Arrogate races against Gun Runner, you can bet Gun Runner and I will bet Arrogate. That is what makes this game so fun.

I won’t commit to that until I see Gun Runner’s performance in the Woodward on Sept 2 at SAR. We already know that the front runner Neolithic is supposed to be in that race. So, if GR can put that one away and win, I would say “Watch out Collected”, GR’s coming West for the Big test in the BC Cup. (Notice I didn’t mention Arrogate, and I won’t down the road unless there’s a positive reason to).
It certainly is fun to try and delve into future possibilities and predictions.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Of course it could be a million other things that have hurt Arrogate other than some Dubai bounce, or any bounce at all.

but to be fair Arrogate did not come out of the trip well, he lost weight and had trouble putting it back on, so Dubai bounce or whatever it may be that trip had an affect on him physically. Its not to say that happens to all horses who go over there but it did to him.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I won’t commit to that until I see Gun Runner’s performance in the Woodward on Sept 2 at SAR. We already know that the front runner Neolithic is supposed to be in that race. So, if GR can put that one away and win, I would say “Watch out Collected”, GR’s coming West for the Big test in the BC Cup. (Notice I didn’t mention Arrogate, and I won’t down the road unless there’s a positive reason to).
It certainly is fun to try and delve into future possibilities and predictions.

Gun Runner is overrated. He is a very fine horse but until I see him run in a fast pressured pace or overcome any real adversity at all I am not going to anoint him as the second coming.