Ask a Trainer.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Cannon shell

Winning 1 out of 4? Depends on the situation. If I took my stable to Thistledowns I'd imagine I'd win 60%.

But his point is that you shouldnt be able to win 1 out of 4 unless you're cheating. Most trainers are not plying their trade at Thistledown. If you went to TDN you could win as many races as you wanted to. If you raced at "real" tracks, the best you should be able to do is win 15 to 18 pct...ya know, assuming you're just using oats and hay.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

But his point is that you shouldnt be able to win 1 out of 4 unless you're cheating. Most trainers are not plying their trade at Thistledown. If you went to TDN you could win as many races as you wanted to. If you raced at "real" tracks, the best you should be able to do is win 15 to 18 pct...ya know, assuming you're just using oats and hay.

there are trainers that have no business getting a license every year. in the orient, if a trainer doesn't hit a certain percentage, they don't get licensed. if this game was structured just a little differently, there would be new tracks opening every year instead of closing now.

the number one part of racing is the horse. if a trainer doesn't take care of his horses, the horses don't perform. i saw it for myself with my own to eyes from a trainer that i HAD last week in Saratoga. i had a group of partners in the horse that bought half the horse from me, they wanted to go to a certain trainer. we met in the paddock, they had all their friends and family there and they took a group picture with the jockey. i looked at the horse and wanted to scratch her, i just didn't have the heart to do it under the circumstances. the horse wound up running dead last and i gave the partners my share of the horse and wished them all the best.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there are trainers that have no business getting a license every year. in the orient, if a trainer doesn't hit a certain percentage, they don't get licensed. if this game was structured just a little differently, there would be new tracks opening every year instead of closing now.

the number one part of racing is the horse. if a trainer doesn't take care of his horses, the horses don't perform. i saw it for myself with my own to eyes from a trainer that i HAD last week in Saratoga. i had a group of partners in the horse that bought half the horse from me, they wanted to go to a certain trainer. we met in the paddock, they had all their friends and family there and they took a group picture with the jockey. i looked at the horse and wanted to scratch her, i just didn't have the heart to do it under the circumstances. the horse wound up running dead last and i gave the partners my share of the horse and wished them all the best.

[Cannon shell]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

But his point is that you shouldnt be able to win 1 out of 4 unless you're cheating. Most trainers are not plying their trade at Thistledown. If you went to TDN you could win as many races as you wanted to. If you raced at "real" tracks, the best you should be able to do is win 15 to 18 pct...ya know, assuming you're just using oats and hay.

Where is it written that winning 1 out of 4 is not possible w/o cheating? Aren't a lot of those guys listed racing at tracks that would be listed far below "real" tracks? I'm only at 23% so I guess I'm off the hook for now.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Cannon shell

Where is it written that winning 1 out of 4 is not possible w/o cheating? Aren't a lot of those guys listed racing at tracks that would be listed far below "real" tracks? I'm only at 23% so I guess I'm off the hook for now.

I'm not in any position to 'pick and choose' which 25% (and up) trainers are clean and which ones are cheating. If you can swear on your life that every 25% and up trainer is clean, i'll believe your first sentence, i won't even question it. If you can't guarantee me that, i'll invoke the "Ryan Braun clause" that says you really never know who's cheating and who is not.

[Cannon shell]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I'm not in any position to 'pick and choose' which 25% (and up) trainers are clean and which ones are cheating. If you can swear on your life that every 25% and up trainer is clean, i'll believe your first sentence, i won't even question it. If you can't guarantee me that, i'll invoke the "Ryan Braun clause" that says you really never know who's cheating and who is not.

Nowhere do I imply that "every" 25% trainer is clean, just that 25% is simply a random number that has no meaning without further qualification. Unlike MLB or other pro sports, trainers are allowed to run against inferior competition which can greatly inflate win percentage. I'm not naive enough to believe that no one is cheating but not paranoid to believe everyone is either. Far too much time is spent speculating on who is and who isn't especially considering that relatively benign positives trigger wild accusations while others who are blatant use a lack of positive tests as "evidence".

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cannon shell

Nowhere do I imply that "every" 25% trainer is clean, just that 25% is simply a random number that has no meaning without further qualification. Unlike MLB or other pro sports, trainers are allowed to run against inferior competition which can greatly inflate win percentage. I'm not naive enough to believe that no one is cheating but not paranoid to believe everyone is either. Far too much time is spent speculating on who is and who isn't especially considering that relatively benign positives trigger wild accusations while others who are blatant use a lack of positive tests as "evidence".

It isn't that hard to figure out who is "probably" using an edge, and it has little to do with win percentage. Just follow the guys that have big move ups off of good trainers and even better, horses can't run a lick for anyone else after leaving a trainer.

[Cannon shell]

Originally Posted by cj

It isn't that hard to figure out who is "probably" using an edge, and it has little to do with win percentage. Just follow the guys that have big move ups off of good trainers and even better, horses can't run a lick for anyone else after leaving a trainer.

Exactly.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Cannon shell

Nowhere do I imply that "every" 25% trainer is clean, just that 25% is simply a random number that has no meaning without further qualification. Unlike MLB or other pro sports, trainers are allowed to run against inferior competition which can greatly inflate win percentage. I'm not naive enough to believe that no one is cheating but not paranoid to believe everyone is either. Far too much time is spent speculating on who is and who isn't especially considering that relatively benign positives trigger wild accusations while others who are blatant use a lack of positive tests as "evidence".

As a trainer, its in your best interest if other trainers are not accused of cheating, it doesnt look good for your line of work, you don't want random people saying "oh, you're a horse trainer, don't all horse trainers cheat and abuse horses?"

But, as a bettor, i have to have a completely different mindset, i don't care what the perception is about trainers, i have to worry about how their training affects my betting, nothing more, nothing less.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by cj

It isn't that hard to figure out who is "probably" using an edge, and it has little to do with win percentage. Just follow the guys that have big move ups off of good trainers and even better, horses can't run a lick for anyone else after leaving a trainer.

Any trainer can 'light one up' no matter what their win percentage is so in that regard, win percentage and cheating have nothing to do with each other on a case by case basis. But, i think you would probably be hard pressed to find the 8 and 10 percent trainers who are consistently 'moving up' horses....you can have your outlier 'explosion' from a low percentage trainer, but for the most part, the "move up" trainers are all batting high percentages.

[Cannon shell]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

As a trainer, its in your best interest if other trainers are not accused of cheating, it doesnt look good for your line of work, you don't want random people saying "oh, you're a horse trainer, don't all horse trainers cheat and abuse horses?"

But, as a bettor, i have to have a completely different mindset, i don't care what the perception is about trainers, i have to worry about how their training affects my betting, nothing more, nothing less.

I dont really care to be honest with you. Some people are gonna believe what they are gonna believe regardless of reality. Some guys do cheat but isnt that the same in every walk of life? This idea that trainers all look out for each other is laughably wrong.

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by cj

It isn't that hard to figure out who is "probably" using an edge, and it has little to do with win percentage. Just follow the guys that have big move ups off of good trainers and even better, horses can't run a lick for anyone else after leaving a trainer.

not a truer statement has bee uttered.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Cannon shell

I dont really care to be honest with you. Some people are gonna believe what they are gonna believe regardless of reality. Some guys do cheat but isnt that the same in every walk of life? This idea that trainers all look out for each other is laughably wrong.

The context of what i was trying to say got lost in translation. I'm not suggesting that trainers are looking out for each other, my point was that your defense of the training profession isnt based on the idea that you are sticking up for other trainers, its the idea that you want the PROFESSION to be viewed in a positive light.

[lamboguy]

there is plenty of cheating going on in the equity markets as well as horse racing. when you break the laws in the equity markets the government puts you away for up to 20 years and when you get out you can't participate in those markets. in horse racing there are suspensions and sometimes large ones, but what tends to happen is that those that got suspended tend to come back under their wife, girl friend or friends name and the game continues and no one makes it to jail. they are cheating the unsuspecting public out of their money like in equity trading, but the penalties don't mean a thing

[chadk66]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there is plenty of cheating going on in the equity markets as well as horse racing. when you break the laws in the equity markets the government puts you away for up to 20 years and when you get out you can't participate in those markets. in horse racing there are suspensions and sometimes large ones, but what tends to happen is that those that got suspended tend to come back under their wife, girl friend or friends name and the game continues and no one makes it to jail. they are cheating the unsuspecting public out of their money like in equity trading, but the penalties don't mean a thing

I agree. And no real penalties for habitual offenders of medication rules. There needs to be a limit on how many positives before your out.