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Old 01-02-2021, 07:01 PM   #46
classhandicapper
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I like Brad Thomas because he's some kind of Yoda that sees things on the track I don't see and comes up with live horses I can't find.

Another very underrated handicapper is Chuck Kuehhas at DRF, but I'm a little partial because we've been friends for decades.
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Old 01-02-2021, 08:16 PM   #47
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Don't have one now, but Prof Gordon Jones was excellent.
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Old 01-02-2021, 09:36 PM   #48
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The Public.
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I always toss the Public's choice
The sooner you get the erroneous concept and term of “The PUBLIC” (money) out of your handicapping mentality and vocabulary, the quicker you’ll realize that the betting population is made up of more than just the outsiders.

The game is not about boosting your ego with occasional handicapping triumphs.
It’s all about making money! (Consistently)
So, if that’s ultimate goal of the “Insiders”, I’ll take their lead and follow their intentions every time I play. As far as I’m concerned "Money is the Name of the Game".

Take my word for it: Understanding the significance of its flow during a typical betting cycle is the key to making it all worthwhile.
Here’s one recent example: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=162416
.
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Old 01-02-2021, 09:41 PM   #49
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Jonathon Kinchen, the only thing better than his handicapping are his flowered shirts.. i love those shirts!
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Old 01-04-2021, 01:19 AM   #50
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Cool

GORDON JONES, GORDON JONES, GORDON JONES. He is one of a kind and a very nice guy, very cordial. Just do not know if he is still active.
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Old 01-04-2021, 01:48 AM   #51
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Me and the tie for 2nd goes to Andy Serling & Mark Patterson.

Happy 2021

Z
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Old 01-04-2021, 12:45 PM   #52
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For that matter, how does one become a "DRF handicapper"? I think these less commonly asked questions have a cool back story, usually.
I interviewed with DRF about 20 years ago for an opening they had as a handicapper. My girlfriend at the time saw an ad for the position in the local paper but was reluctant to tell me about it since she felt I was already spending too much time with horse racing, lol.

Interview was at their office in Lexington, KY with a guy who is no longer there. They had me handicap and write up a couple of races that were two days out for a midwest track, Arlington maybe. They liked the handicapping just not the way it was broken down and worded. This is when they had an analysis of every horse in a race for some tracks.

The hours were to be something like 11-7 (iirc) or right when I would be wanting to play that days races instead of handicapping a future card so I wasn't terribly upset to not get offered the position. The pay they quoted was okay but nothing great.
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Old 01-04-2021, 03:59 PM   #53
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GORDON JONES, GORDON JONES, GORDON JONES. He is one of a kind and a very nice guy, very cordial. Just do not know if he is still active.

I don't either. I haven't spoken to Gordon in yrs. One of the nicest guys I ever met.
I hope he's still around. I still have his books.
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Old 01-04-2021, 05:37 PM   #54
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Favorite handicapper (as teacher): Mark Cramer - who sadly seems no longer active, at least in US. My ROI moved from negative to positive when I first read his material.

Favorite current handicapper giving selections regularly: Chris Larmey on the Sport of Kings podcast

Favorite "in house" handicapper: Brad Thomas of Monmouth, but also have to throw some love to Vic Stauffer at my now home track of Oaklawn.

Favorite handicapper for feeling like I'm back in NY with track friends and not getting to have a "lazy" opinion on a horse/race without being properly challenged on it: Andy Serling
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Old 01-12-2021, 02:22 AM   #55
dnlgfnk
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Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
The sooner you get the erroneous concept and term of “The PUBLIC” (money) out of your handicapping mentality and vocabulary, the quicker you’ll realize that the betting population is made up of more than just the outsiders.

The game is not about boosting your ego with occasional handicapping triumphs.
It’s all about making money! (Consistently)
So, if that’s ultimate goal of the “Insiders”, I’ll take their lead and follow their intentions every time I play. As far as I’m concerned "Money is the Name of the Game".

Take my word for it: Understanding the significance of its flow during a typical betting cycle is the key to making it all worthwhile.
Here’s one recent example: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=162416
.
I couldn't play your way. Wouldn't enjoy it You couldn't play mine.

I create my own odds line/pct. based upon previous trips. Emulating Benter however primitively, I use the public odds as a separate factor, incorporating all the data crunching of the best handicapper race in, race out to merge with my own, waiting as long as possible to fashion my "true odds".

Playing in a casual manner since last August with a small betting unit, I'm showing a 17% profit after roughly 365 wagers. I could screen shot if necessary, and if instructed how. I plan to ramp up this spring, for better or worse.
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Old 01-12-2021, 05:30 AM   #56
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I couldn't play your way. Wouldn't enjoy it You couldn't play mine.

I create my own odds line/pct. based upon previous trips. Emulating Benter however primitively, I use the public odds as a separate factor, incorporating all the data crunching of the best handicapper race in, race out to merge with my own, waiting as long as possible to fashion my "true odds".

Playing in a casual manner since last August with a small betting unit, I'm showing a 17% profit after roughly 365 wagers. I could screen shot if necessary, and if instructed how. I plan to ramp up this spring, for better or worse.
Fascinating! May I ask how often a playable race comes about? How many race cards did it take to come up with the 365 plays?
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Old 01-12-2021, 03:20 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by dnlgfnk View Post
I couldn't play your way. Wouldn't enjoy it You couldn't play mine.

I create my own odds line/pct. based upon previous trips. Emulating Benter however primitively, I use the public odds as a separate factor, incorporating all the data crunching of the best handicapper race in, race out to merge with my own, waiting as long as possible to fashion my "true odds".

Playing in a casual manner since last August with a small betting unit, I'm showing a 17% profit after roughly 365 wagers. I could screen shot if necessary, and if instructed how. I plan to ramp up this spring, for better or worse.
Well, to each his own.
I enjoy my method of play because I came to the realization that this game is not about the horses. Its about those who control every aspect of a horse’s racing career and their personal financial goals. All the data crunching, statistical analysis and subjective interpretations of a horse's information pales by comparison to the objective realities of the monies being wagered on those horses at any given time.

How do I know this? Because I did play your way for 30 odd years with some respectable success. But not enough success to justify the long hours and sweat equity I would pour into this game. I now simply review all aspects of the market through a highly sophisticated tote analysis during any typical betting cycle that may interest me. It takes all of about 10 to 12 minutes of my time to determine if there’s a viable and lucrative play or not.

Since you mentioned Bill Benter (a player I highly respect) I suggest that you consider some of his thoughts:
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Excerpts from:
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:”
A Report by William Benter


The complexity of predicting horse performance makes the specification of an elegant handicapping model quite difficult. Ideally, each independent variable would capture a unique aspect of the influences effecting horse performance. In the author's experience, the trial and error method of adding independent variables to increase the model's goodness-of-fit, results in the model tending to become a hodgepodge of highly correlated variables whose individual significance's are difficult to determine and often counter-intuitive.

Additionally, there will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds. This presents an obstacle to the model developer with access to published information only. For a statistical model to compete in this environment, it must make full use of the advantages of computer modeling, namely, the ability to make complex calculations on large data sets.

The odds set by the public betting yield a sophisticated estimate of the horses' win probabilities.

It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete. An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates. The public's implied probability estimates generally correspond well with the actual frequencies of winning.
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Old 01-12-2021, 11:28 PM   #58
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Fascinating! May I ask how often a playable race comes about? How many race cards did it take to come up with the 365 plays?
I first learned of the possible legality of ADW in Missouri last July, and have proceeded carefully, giving myself the rest of the year to tinker with and tweak my approach while testing my self-control.

There may be a race or two a day where I hate the chances of a low odds horse, ideally two. Beat a favorite and one can redistribute roughly 35 pct. of winning chances to significant others. From there I can work with exotics (exactas for now). Steven Crist covered the inefficiencies present when one combines more than one opinion on a race. Beat two low odds horses and redistribute perhaps 50 % of winning chances, with a definite edge.

I probably spread about 3 horses deep in an exacta on average. Sometimes cold, sometimes 4 others around a key overlay horse, sometimes the fave under a valued longshot, etc., weighting the bets not always to produce equal return, but frequently playing a least favored combination only enough to break even while emphasizing the others. So that 365 likely represents about 75-100 races.

My best score during this period was the July 17th 2nd race exacta at Toga. In his debut, Kabob had been 3 wide advancing significantly better than any horse in the field while three wide on the turn, and continued to 7 widest entering the stretch while holding his ground with the rest of the field until very late. On the 17th I remember figuring him to save ground in a weak race behind a contested pace- a classic potential reversal of trips.
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Old 01-12-2021, 11:44 PM   #59
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Well, to each his own.
I enjoy my method of play because I came to the realization that this game is not about the horses. Its about those who control every aspect of a horse’s racing career and their personal financial goals. All the data crunching, statistical analysis and subjective interpretations of a horse's information pales by comparison to the objective realities of the monies being wagered on those horses at any given time.

How do I know this? Because I did play your way for 30 odd years with some respectable success. But not enough success to justify the long hours and sweat equity I would pour into this game. I now simply review all aspects of the market through a highly sophisticated tote analysis during any typical betting cycle that may interest me. It takes all of about 10 to 12 minutes of my time to determine if there’s a viable and lucrative play or not.

Since you mentioned Bill Benter (a player I highly respect) I suggest that you consider some of his thoughts:
Thanks, Nitro.
What I got from Benter was the final nail in the coffin of specialization, at least for myself. I still specialize, but my wild swings (upgrading a perceived difficult trip(s) is often preferring a horse who looks bad on paper) would be far more prevalent and unprofitable without incorporating the comprehensive input of public odds.

Additional confirmation for me was when, some years ago Dave Schwartz posted a database from all races run in a year from the early 2000's. The incredible skill of the public in sorting out 5/2 vs. 3-1, 7/2 vs. 4-1, etc. correlated directly to their win pcts.
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Old 01-13-2021, 10:42 AM   #60
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but my wild swings (upgrading a perceived difficult trip(s) is often preferring a horse who looks bad on paper) would be far more prevalent and unprofitable without incorporating the comprehensive input of public odds.
This is a question.

Let's assume you have a horse you believe had a terrible but somewhat hidden trip last out and he figures to get a great trip this time. Depending on the field he draws into, his odds today will vary.

If he draws into a tough spot he might be 15-1 or 20-1 and if he draws into an easy spot he might be 7/2.

To me, either way, if I am right about the trips there's probably value on him in both spots even if the public odds are telling me his probability of winning is different in those two fields. The only difference to me is that if he's 7/2 I'd be more apt to use him on top heavier and if he was 15-1 or 20-1 because of the tough field and might not win anyway, I'd use him a little less on top and use him 2nd and 3rd with some other horses trying to get that value on my ticket.

The probability of winning may change the way I structure the bet but it won't change the fact that I'm interested in that horse. So what I do really need the public odds for other than confirming what I already know, that one field was tougher than the other?
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