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05-20-2018, 04:43 PM
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#61
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If Good Magic runs in the Belmont...he will be completely out of my trifecta tickets.
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He isn't running, Chad actually said that is why he was trying the Preakness. He didn't think he is a Belmont horse.
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05-20-2018, 04:49 PM
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#62
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?
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Fair point about post positions, but unless Bravazo's jock was worried about Good Magic enough to keep him hemmed in on the inside, Good Magic could have conceded the lead and simply shifted out (Bravazo was held about 2.5 lengths off the duel). Maybe that would have even led to Smith dropping in a path (I presume everyone was trying to keep off the rail). There is no doubt that Good Magic is capable of making sharp bids to the lead on the far turn; it is not certain that Justify would have been able to bust open the race on the turn just because he was not pressed early.
And even if Good Magic didn't get off the inside, it wasn't a complete death sentence. The Phipps horse in the 9f Dixie stalked along the inside behind a much slower pace and was able to rally inside and win.
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05-20-2018, 04:53 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.
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That was the point of the example of the 2016 BC Classic...Arrogate won. He sat behind an unpressured pace (it was not particularly slow at :47 flat and 1:10 4/5 fractions) and yet still reeled in a loose California Chrome.
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05-20-2018, 04:54 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I think he is a very good horse, but he isn't as good as Justify, that is all. Dueling with a better horse is usually a recipe for disaster, so saying 30% gives him a much better chance than most horses in his situation.
That said, letting him go and trying to catch him later, in my opinion, was at best a 5 or 10% chance to win. You're basically just hoping Justify wasn't on his game at that point.
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And no one has indicated that he is as good as Justify. That's not been felt, at least, certainly not by me. I didn't even bet the race. However, I guess this is how the race looks on paper. Races don't always go according to paper, ie-figures. Still, I get your point.
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05-20-2018, 05:00 PM
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#65
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I also think Arrogate was the better horse and both riders knew it.
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This is a bit presumptuous. California Chrome was on a massive tear and on the cusp of an unbeaten season a la Spectacular Bid. Arrogate had a single, albeit otherworldly, breakout performance in the Travers against his own age group, which was coming apart at the seams with each passing day.
Quote:
In this case the better horse was Justify so not really the same situation to me. There is no chance Good Magic is going to run down a loose on the lead Justify in the stretch. If you employ that strategy you are just hoping Justify is off his game.
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Chad Brown said as much in an interview a few days after the Derby. He intended to sit the same trip as the colt got in the Derby, but had to hope that Justify's concentrated racing/training would result in some "regression".
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05-20-2018, 05:10 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Chad Brown said as much in an interview a few days after the Derby. He intended to sit the same trip as the colt got in the Derby, but had to hope that Justify's concentrated racing/training would result in some "regression".
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He said these same words in the six minute video interview that I posted this morning on page 2 of this thread.
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05-20-2018, 05:30 PM
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#67
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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So which horse is sacrificing himself in the Belmont? That will help my handicapping, thanks in advance.
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05-20-2018, 05:42 PM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
So which horse is sacrificing himself in the Belmont? That will help my handicapping, thanks in advance.
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Most likely Machismo if he goes (although he hasn't worked since the Arkansas Derby). Maybe Looch can make an 11th hour purchase of Noble Indy off of Winstar a la Calumet, Lukas, and Mr. Z back in 2015.
Tap Daddy, Core Beliefs, Funny Duck, Just Whistle, Enticed if we scrape the bottom of the barrel.
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05-20-2018, 05:59 PM
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#69
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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This entire conversation strikes me as odd. Didn't these two look to be big dogs against poodles? So what did you expect if not those two pulling away from the field? If the pace was scorching, I'd understand the speed dual talk, but it wasn't, and horses race every day through reasonable fraction that close between the first two. No one complains about the speed dual though. You all are doing so based on the visual of the two drawing off from the others. I just don't consider what happened as a speed dual in the typical use of the term.
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05-20-2018, 06:17 PM
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#70
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,187
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grits
This was a day or so before the Preakness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRUOgYFLOsc
Chad is not rude, short, unkind, a bit of a prick, or whatever else you want to call him.
Do you know him?
I can tell you he's extremely focused, a quieter presence. He's not a Baffert and never will intend to be.
Trainers have been disappointed with rides before. This is not anything new. And you should know this.
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Thanks for the video Grits. I watched it. Didn't really take anything away from it other than that he wanted to be close up and save ground. This plan appears to have been executed effectively. Maybe he changed his mind after he saw the way the track was playing and gave different instructions.
I do not know Chad Brown. Hence, "I've heard he's a bit of a prick". I don't know where the words "rude, short, unkind" come from- I have not used them on this Forum to describe Chad Brown.
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05-20-2018, 06:29 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
This entire conversation strikes me as odd. Didn't these two look to be big dogs against poodles? So what did you expect if not those two pulling away from the field? If the pace was scorching, I'd understand the speed dual talk, but it wasn't, and horses race every day through reasonable fraction that close between the first two. No one complains about the speed dual though. You all are doing so based on the visual of the two drawing off from the others. I just don't consider what happened as a speed dual in the typical use of the term.
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The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.
The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.
That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...
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05-20-2018, 06:38 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.
The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.
That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...
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Agree with this. And if Jose did not go to the lead, Smith would have just slowed a little bit after getting the lead, backed GM into a place where he could not get out, and then GM is in a really bad spot.
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05-20-2018, 06:39 PM
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#73
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alhattab
Thanks for the video Grits. I watched it. Didn't really take anything away from it other than that he wanted to be close up and save ground. This plan appears to have been executed effectively. Maybe he changed his mind after he saw the way the track was playing and gave different instructions.
I do not know Chad Brown. Hence, "I've heard he's a bit of a prick". I don't know where the words "rude, short, unkind" come from- I have not used them on this Forum to describe Chad Brown.
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I know you haven't used those other words, Alhattab. I was just throwing out examples....things that we sometimes say about others for whatever reason. I can tell you. He isn't what you termed, nor is anyone in his family. His mom and dad are great friends of mine. We spend a lot of time together every August when I'm in Saratoga. They are all really fine people, very close.
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05-20-2018, 06:45 PM
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#74
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 733
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The Derby Winner goes off at 1/5 in the Preakness. NO Way your beating Justify with a clear comfortable easy lead. He opens up in the stretch. Probably beats Good Magic and the field by much more. Racing 101. This isn't "straight alignment harness racing" I wish we had more Jockey's with a set.
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05-20-2018, 08:21 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 440
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
The opening quarter mile was the fastest of any route the entire weekend at Pimlico and equaled or bettered a couple of the sprint stakes as well.
The mile split was also the fastest of the weekend. All this despite being the co-longest race of the weekend at 9.5 furlongs. And the two were still head to head at that point.
That's a protracted speed duel, as the result chart suggests...
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Not sure of the exact distance but because of the run-up on sprints at Pimlico you basically have to take a full second off of the first quarter times to get a better gauge of early speed.
There are run-ups for routes at Pimlico as well. For better explanation would reference comments CJ made in his thread about the TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes races on BES and Preakness days.
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