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Old 05-18-2018, 11:41 PM   #16
AltonKelsey
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A rather naive understanding from the CHRB re the batch bettors.



"growing indications that ..... identify opportunities in exotic pools. "


Yeah, like 20+ years ago.
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Old 05-19-2018, 10:46 AM   #17
Prioress Ply
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How about restricting whales to the normal, direct access that 98%+ of bettors have been using in this game for decades?

There is one way to get a bet down at the craps table.
Seems to be working for the casinos.
They won't do that because they're complicit. Read Flash Boys.
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Old 05-19-2018, 01:22 PM   #18
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Back in the day, the recreational handicappers still lost money. But they could pick a solid horse and get 5/2 on it. Now if they get that price, the horse runs out of the money, and if it wins, the whales have drilled it down to 6/5. Back in the day, a recreational player could get 16-1 on a reasonable longshot. Nowadays, if they get that price, the horse finishes a length in front of the field in the NEXT race. The few times the horse wins, the whales have bombed it down to 6-1.

The whales never stop being hungry and never give anything a rest. The recreational players get tired of seeing this and of feeding the whales, and they move onto casinos, poker, sports betting, or whatever. I don't blame the whales for trying to make money, and I don't blame the recreational players for not putting up with it. But it isn't a sustainable model.

Will the tracks do anything about it? You bet they will. They'll go out of business, one-by-one, because they can't see any farther than the tips of their noses. Today today today, never mind about tomorrow or a year from now or ten years from now. Cut corners, cut back on days, cut purses, increase the takeout. All signs of a failing industry.

You think differently? Remember when tracks used to run six days per week WITHOUT any revenue from casinos/poker? Name one that does so now. How about five days per week? There are a few. Name a track that was around in 2005 and cards MORE days per week now than it did then? I can't think of any. Name some that card as many days. Not many. The majority have cut back.

Eventually, there won't be anything left to cut back, and tracks will start falling like dominoes. Nor is there a guarantee that there is a floor to this before the industry is extinct in this country. Other countries ---- those in which the industry had more foresight --- may well survive. I'd be surprised if the industry righted itself in North America before it was too late to save it. I hope I'm wrong.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:45 AM   #19
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I think the CHRB are very environmentally responsible when you consider the fact that they are working so hard to save the whales.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:30 PM   #20
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Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete View Post
The whales never stop being hungry and never give anything a rest. The recreational players get tired of seeing this and of feeding the whales, and they move onto casinos, poker, sports betting, or whatever. I don't blame the whales for trying to make money, and I don't blame the recreational players for not putting up with it. But it isn't a sustainable model....
Most recreational players think a whale is what you would see at Sea World. They move to other wagering opportunities out of boredom not to try and get away from whales.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:42 PM   #21
Pensacola Pete
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Most recreational players think a whale is what you would see at Sea World. They move to other wagering opportunities out of boredom not to try and get away from whales.
The recreational players don't need to know what a 'whale' is. All they know is that they get beat up day after day after day and see their good price bet down to squat time after time after time after the gate opens.
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Old 05-20-2018, 05:16 PM   #22
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The recreational players don't need to know what a 'whale' is. All they know is that they get beat up day after day after day and see their good price bet down to squat time after time after time after the gate opens.
Your assumption is that a recreational player is on the right side of bets when they play and that whales always hurt their price. The fact is they are usually on the wrong side of bets betting other than what the whales are betting and get a bump in their winnings when the wrong side wins.
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Old 05-20-2018, 08:54 PM   #23
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Time to list out and describe the parimutuel pool issues previously identified in literature, nearly 2 decades since the pick 6 hack and a resurfacing of this topic around 2009/2010 with much lip service from the tracks to take heed and implement something, we should identify which can be solved through technology directly. Highlighted will things effected the display of accurate odds, then the detractors can weigh in with the excuse making about why it can't or shouldn't be fixed and explain why after 15 years of knowledge of these issues most tracks actively, passively or claim ignorance then execute no action on the issues.

Account Wagering Fraud. Fraud includes fixing the winner in a race, taking advantage of hidden data to cash in on parimutuel pools, using insiders (who are prohibited from wagering or making certain types of wagers), using
trainers or jockeys, or associates on their behalf, wagering against a horse they ride. Technology can assist in analysis, require/force ADW's to submit wagering logs (transaction level) to a CENTRAL regional or national authority for auditing. Not an odds display issue.

Past Posting. Past posting is a situation where wagers are placed after a race has started. Past posting may be due to a technical issue where a stop wagering signal fails to be initiated or fails to be registered, to a failure to activate the prescribed stop wagering procedure in a timely manner, or
to a failure to communicate a stop wagering command to a guest wagering location. This can be technically addressed, invert the advertisement of a stop command to a request to participate command from the remote sites, or "grant" pool availability for a certain seconds per cycle in sliding windows, two-way handshake, implement true transaction acknowledgement instead of pool total updates (the same source of the security issues) the list goes on and on and on. This does cause an odds display issue. These incidents should be publicly reported by the tote companies.

Cancel Delay. A Cancel Delay is a wager that is allowed to be cancelled more than a reasonable time after purchase and/or after wagering on a race has ended. Cancel Delay fraud is associated with odds manipulation. It
results in gaining an unfair advantage by observing the beginning of a race before deciding whether to hold or cancel bets. This does cause an odds display issue. These incidents should be publicly reported by the tote companies and investigated with published findings.

Odds Manipulation. One betting strategy is to monitor betting “action” – the increase in the number of wagers which lead to the dynamic changing of odds. One way action increases is with a contestant that has excessive
money wagered on it by other bettors (a “bet down” contestant). Other players looking for value or overlays will bet against a “bet down” contestant and will instead bet on an alternative. This bettor will react to the win odds
and base a selection from readily available public information about contestants. In addition, an odds manipulator may even cancel the manipulating wagers – thus recovering the very funds used for the purpose of odds manipulation! The removal of those wagers in turn could contribute to a late drop in odds and payoffs. Obviously, this scenario could generate
adverse reaction from law-abiding fans, ranging from a perception of a “fixed race” to a perception of “past posting” -- making a bet after the official time when no more bets are to be taken. When combined with robotic wagering – which provides an instantaneous view of the odds for all other pools – odds
manipulation can be achieved by placing a large wager or set of wagers just before the wagers of traditional slower patrons. This is another type of “front running” – where one player takes unfair advantage of other players using
advance knowledge of pending wagers. This is similar to the front-running situations associated with high frequency trading, “naked access,” and flickering quotes associated with today’s financial markets. This is the same technique used by the Flash Boys of Wall Street fame, horse racing pools have the same problem with some receiving signal before others. It effects the odds displayed, it can be technically solved, everything to the contrary is excuse making.

Pool Arbitrage and Robotic Wagering. Pool arbitrage occurs when the bettor has computer access to the latest possible betting totals in each pool, thus facilitating a computer program to generate wagers in appropriate amounts for specific bet combinations for each, with a sufficient level of confidence that the winning wager payoffs will not vary significantly from the projected
values. This is especially effective where wagering levels are modest as the variability on each contestant is greater when separate pools are compared. Pool arbitrage need not be deployed on an absolutely risk-free basis with respect to each race evaluated: ironically, a risk-free profit strategy on each race could limit other wagering opportunities by restricting the amount wagered. The arbitrage strategy, in combination with whatever selection strategy is employed, needs only to reliably demonstrate, over time, a sufficient rate of return to justify the time and effort involved. Pool Arbitrage may also be effective for major events, where a much more significant portion of wagers may be from more casual bettors whose wagers may be mainly in reaction to publicity about the event or the contestants. Technical solution - equal timely access to pool totals, favoring none.

Performance Fraud. When a horse wins at long odds -- contrary to expectations based on past performances -- or conversely, is bet down to a level inconsistent with its past performances, there is good reason to open a formal investigation. In the past, investigations were only occasionally pursued, based on anecdotal and fortuitous information sources. This is because of the complexity, cost, and tedium associated with obtaining and evaluating complex wagering and other data relating to a suspect race. Needs an investigatory solution. In this spirit there is the Dead Contender Scenario. The easiest way to illegally fix a race (and cash in on parimutuel pools) is to illegally arrange a favorite or second favorite win. Fixing a race, by having a so-called “Dead Contender” lose, requires only a very small number of people – maybe only one. Exotic pool bets based on the outcome of one event, with high payoffs when the favorites are off the board, are most vulnerable. Investigatory body needed, do we have one?

Technology can fix the odds display and the currently inequitable and possibly illegal pay to play signal access to a select few (how would individual wall street investors feel about getting stock price updates once a DAY when the large hedge funds get HOURLY updates all day long? It wouldn't stand for a moment.). Auditing transaction logs can address the rest.

There are a few things to chew on, the time for a dismissive approach to real issues has ended, game needs a spring cleaning, like 20 years ago.
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Old 05-20-2018, 09:14 PM   #24
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Posted before but is directly related. CHRB from 2016, and people think they are surprised about the reaction to odds changes. Pg 17.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf transcript_16-02-25.pdf (229.4 KB, 13 views)
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Old 05-20-2018, 09:23 PM   #25
BCOURTNEY
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Your assumption is that a recreational player is on the right side of bets when they play and that whales always hurt their price. The fact is they are usually on the wrong side of bets betting other than what the whales are betting and get a bump in their winnings when the wrong side wins.
Who cares if the average player is on the right side of the bets - the discussion is the average players should have equal timely signal access and tote information so the syndicates can't front run them and dilute the value of their wagers, the thread is about late odds changes the state of the current technology, why this is even a discussion to begin? The industry knows the technology has had flaws for 20 years and does nothing substantial, it's all about lip service, that is incredible so lets all be amazed at that, together.

Is your position that there isn't a real problem or there is and the industry has addressed it, or there is a problem and they have not addressed it?
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Old 05-20-2018, 09:27 PM   #26
BCOURTNEY
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Was informed by one of the tote companies that you're comments earlier in the thread were incorrect.

They are willing to explain it all to me to get the straight story out. IMO they should have gotten the straight story out years ago.
I elaborated some with bullet points further down in this thread (see above), please tell me which comments are incorrect. Thanks!
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Old 05-20-2018, 09:39 PM   #27
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Most recreational players think a whale is what you would see at Sea World. They move to other wagering opportunities out of boredom not to try and get away from whales.
I have argued this with you so many times, but you continue with this false belief. Given you believe this, why not raise takeout? Why only 15% to 20%, why not 30 to 40%. The Whales and those eligible are going to get their money back with rebates and since recreational players don't care, why stop at such paltry takeouts. Go for the gusto, it's just entertainment after all.

By the way how can you possibly get bored in this game. There is a race going off somewhere every 5 to 7 minutes for about 10 hours a day. The fastest handicapper in the world cannot keep up with it. Truth is that for most the ability to try to win over time is an act of futility and over time they realize that
and leave the game.
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Old 05-20-2018, 09:54 PM   #28
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All of this is giving me a headache.
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Old 05-20-2018, 10:46 PM   #29
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From 2016 on when to stop the betting.

COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: No. I was saying the whole idea is not logical because you can -- if you think you can close it off 5, 10, 15 seconds before and you have any kind of delay, and this is horse racing, so you’re guaranteed to have something happen that you didn’t anticipate, then you arbitrarily cut your handle for no reason. I mean, because if it’s -- if, you know, if something happens in the gate, if things are happening -- COMMISSIONER KRIKORIAN: Yeah.
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: -- you still want people to wager. It’s, you know --
COMMISSIONER KRIKORIAN: You could have a horse come out of the gate or --
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: Yeah. And it happens all the time. So cutting it off with so many seconds you can --
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: Well, I know. I just -- I agree.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: That was what --
CHAIRMAN CHOPER: I agree.
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: -- happened before.
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: Yeah. You can’t do that.
CHAIRMAN WINNER: Yeah. I mean, you’re just --
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR BAEDEKER: If the horse got scratched --
CHAIRMAN WINNER: -- you’re cutting handle. You’re just cutting the handle.
COMMISSIONER AUERBACH: You’re cutting your handle, correct.
CHAIRMAN WINNER: Right.
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Old 05-20-2018, 10:58 PM   #30
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What is so difficult about starting the race once all the wagers have been received?

Simply have a countdown clock and then when the clock strikes zero no more bets. Then when the toteboard stops changing the race can begin.

How hard could that be?

As soon as bettors get shut out a few times they will bet before the clock strikes zero.
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