Who ever said the lack of 2-year old racing experience is limited to the K. Derby?

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think you will find claimers, on average, have far more hard races a year than stakes horses do.

I think that people assume these races just suspend the normal rules of handicapping in favor of esoterica that they would never think important in any orher context.

Some horses aren’t the same after the derby. The triple crown stretch is more grueling than any string of claiming races I can think of. I think it’s imoortant for a horse to have that foundation. It prepares them.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think you will find claimers, on average, have far more hard races a year than stakes horses do.

I think it is safe to say that a 3-year going thru three triple crown races in five weeks is infinitely more grueling than any schedule any typical claimer would go thru except possibly the cruel scenario where a trainer simply sent the horse out to race when in all likelihood it might well break down.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Some horses aren’t the same after the derby. The triple crown stretch is more grueling than any string of claiming races I can think of. I think it’s imoortant for a horse to have that foundation. It prepares them.

Totally agree.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

I think it is safe to say that a 3-year going thru three triple crown races in five weeks is infinitely more grueling than any schedule any typical claimer would go thru except possibly the cruel scenario where a trainer simply sent the horse out to race when in all likelihood it might well break down.

The TC is so tough on a horse that in the old days a fair number of horses threw an extra start in between the Preakness and Belmont.

The reality is TC horses are babied. Claimers can run every 2 weeks sometimes. A lot of handicapping mistakes are made by assuming that these very fit 3 year olds can't take frequent racing.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The TC is so tough on a horse that in the old days a fair number of horses threw an extra start in between the Preakness and Belmont.

The reality is TC horses are babied. Claimers can run every 2 weeks sometimes. A lot of handicapping mistakes are made by assuming that these very fit 3 year olds can't take frequent racing.

Implicit in every post in this thread is the most basic underlying question:

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?

An honest answer to that question is yes, but it's not written in stone.

[Fred Mertz]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?

The Belmont Stakes is the longest and toughest IMO. He has been great so far, but I'm not sold on the third leg for him. Far from it.


I was there for California Chrome's try cheering him on. It didn't happen.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Bill Cullen

Implicit in every post in this thread is the most basic underlying question:

Can Justify take the Belmont Stakes?

An honest answer to that question is yes, but it's not written in stone.

I think he will lose, but I would feel the same way had his first start been as a 2 year old.