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05-06-2018, 10:21 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
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There are 16 horses today with Morning Lines less than 3-1 there could be a spike today of 5 or more since there are 12 races and I would suspect that most if not all of the 5 would be on the Dirt from today's group:
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-05-2018 1st race 4 Summer Punch (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R Diodoro 1/1# Dirt
2 05-05-2018 1st race 5 Jump for Joy (PA) Claiming Six Furlongs C Baker 8/5# Dirt
3 05-05-2018 2nd race 5 Grand Valour (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
4 05-05-2018 3rd race 1 Mister Hayes (FL) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-05-2018 4th race 7 Guerriere (IRE) Allowance Six Furlongs C C Brown 5/2# Turf
6 05-05-2018 4th race 8 Misericordia (GB) Allowance Six Furlongs A E Goldberg 2/1# Turf
7 05-05-2018 5th race 1 Fast Getaway (NY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Dirt
8 05-05-2018 6th race 3 Holy Helena (ON) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles J A Jerkens 7/5# Turf
9 05-05-2018 6th race 6 Santa Monica (GB) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
10 05-05-2018 7th race 3 Big Guy Ian (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs R R Rodriguez 8/5# Dirt
11 05-05-2018 9th race 3 Patternrecognition (FL) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
12 05-05-2018 9th race 6 Wonderful Light (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
13 05-05-2018 10th race 8 Silverwave (FR) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
14 05-05-2018 11th race 2 Cloud Computing (KY) Stakes One Mile C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
15 05-05-2018 11th race 5 Tommy Macho (KY) Stakes One Mile T A Pletcher 5/2# Dirt
16 05-05-2018 12th race 11 Pence (NY) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Turf
17 05-05-2018 12th race 13 Playwright (NY) (MTO) Maiden Claiming Seven Furlongs D Gargan 9/5# Turf
Let's see what happens!!!
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Yesterday's Morning Lines less than 3-1 laid a bunch of eggs going 3 for 16.
I was expecting 5 wins and an upward spike but instead got a flat slope __
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is 0 and stays the same as yesterday as once again there were only 3 winners from this group
Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
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05-06-2018, 10:33 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-06-2018 1st race 2 Lipstickonmycollar (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 2/1# Dirt
2 05-06-2018 2nd race 6 English Dancer (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
3 05-06-2018 3rd race 5 Anazara (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
4 05-06-2018 3rd race 6 Saturdays Vapor (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Dirt
5 05-06-2018 4th race 2 Bad Student (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Dirt
6 05-06-2018 4th race 5 Abounding Legacy (FL) Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 2/1# Dirt
7 05-06-2018 5th race 1 Course Correction (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
8 05-06-2018 6th race 1 Breaking the Rules (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs C R McGaughey III 8/5# Dirt
9 05-06-2018 6th race 3 Pop the Hood (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R A Ubillo 2/1# Dirt
10 05-06-2018 7th race 7 Shalako (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 5/2# Turf
11 05-06-2018 8th race 1 Faypien (FL) Stakes One Mile B Baffert 5/2# Dirt
12 05-06-2018 8th race 6 Unchained Melody (KY) Stakes One Mile B A Lynch 9/5# Dirt
13 05-06-2018 9th race 1 Preservationist (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 6/5# Turf
14 05-06-2018 10th race 15 Andretta (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 8/5# Turf
Let’s see what happens!!!
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05-11-2018, 11:03 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
From what I’ve seen if there is a spike from a 3 win day it usually goes to +1 so maybe 4 wins today from this group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
However, even that’s a stretch as there are 5 Turf races today at Belmont
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-06-2018 1st race 2 Lipstickonmycollar (KY) Claiming Six Furlongs C J Englehart 2/1# Dirt
2 05-06-2018 2nd race 6 English Dancer (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
3 05-06-2018 3rd race 5 Anazara (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs W I Mott 8/5# Dirt
4 05-06-2018 3rd race 6 Saturdays Vapor (KY) Maiden Special Weight Six Furlongs D A Cannizzo 2/1# Dirt
5 05-06-2018 4th race 2 Bad Student (KY) Claiming One Mile R Diodoro 5/2# Dirt
6 05-06-2018 4th race 5 Abounding Legacy (FL) Claiming One Mile R E Nicks 2/1# Dirt
7 05-06-2018 5th race 1 Course Correction (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Fourth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
8 05-06-2018 6th race 1 Breaking the Rules (KY) Allowance Six Furlongs C R McGaughey III 8/5# Dirt
9 05-06-2018 6th race 3 Pop the Hood (NY) Allowance Six Furlongs R A Ubillo 2/1# Dirt
10 05-06-2018 7th race 7 Shalako (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M Nevin 5/2# Turf
11 05-06-2018 8th race 1 Faypien (FL) Stakes One Mile B Baffert 5/2# Dirt
12 05-06-2018 8th race 6 Unchained Melody (KY) Stakes One Mile B A Lynch 9/5# Dirt
13 05-06-2018 9th race 1 Preservationist (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 6/5# Turf
14 05-06-2018 10th race 15 Andretta (NY) Maiden Claiming Six Furlongs H J Bond 8/5# Turf
Let’s see what happens!!!
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I was expecting a spike last Sunday of 4 wins but there were only 3 wins from this group so once again, we got a flat slope __
Sunday's MLF's only had 3 wins from their group
Other MLF's once again beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) was 0 and stayed the same as Saturday
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05-11-2018, 11:23 AM
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#19
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Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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I was sure that by Wednesday there would have been a spike in wins from the MLF's but that did not happen as there were only 2 winners from among the group and so we got a downward slope and a slight upside down v
Yesterday's MLF's only had 2 wins from their group
Other MLF's shutout 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 0 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is -1
I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day
They are involved with 6 today
Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-11-2018 1st race 3 Zechariah (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 5/2# Turf
2 05-11-2018 1st race 6 Blurred Line (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 1/1# Turf
3 05-11-2018 1st race 2 Surface Strike (NY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 6/5# Turf
4 05-11-2018 2nd race 4 Princess Maeve (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 05-11-2018 2nd race 5 Pumpernickel Basil (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
6 05-11-2018 3rd race 2 Believe Indeed (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D S Ryan 8/5# Turf
7 05-11-2018 3rd race 3 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-11-2018 4th race 6 Devamani (FR) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles C Clement 9/5# Turf
9 05-11-2018 4th race 5 Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles J P Terranova II 6/5# Turf
10 05-11-2018 5th race 1 No Need to Appeal (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 2/1# Dirt
11 05-11-2018 5th race 2 Short Kakes (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
12 05-11-2018 6th race 7 Special Trip (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
13 05-11-2018 8th race 2 Inspector Lynley (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 9/5# Turf
14 05-11-2018 8th race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 7/5# Turf
15 05-11-2018 9th race 5 Tres Charmant (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
16 05-11-2018 9th race 11 Ribbonite (NY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs D Gargan 2/1# Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-11-2018 at 11:26 AM.
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05-11-2018, 11:28 PM
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#20
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?
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05-12-2018, 08:48 AM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
This may be a really dumb question, and explained in prior posts, any particular reason why you are charting this?
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Hey GMB
I just wanted see if there are times when the Morning Line Favorites, in particular those less than 3-1, win more so than at other times
At Aqueduct there were many instances when the Morning Line Favorites as a group did well, say won 5 or 6 races in one day, then they would come back the next day and lay an egg with 2 or 3 wins for the day
So I started charting wins at Aqueduct the spikes were pretty noticeable but so far the same can’t be said about Belmont
Let’s keep an eye on them!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 08:57 AM.
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05-12-2018, 09:55 AM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
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I was hoping for a big spike today but that is not likely to happen as Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been struggling in Turf races since opening day
They are involved with 6 today
Here are today's Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1:
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-11-2018 1st race 3 Zechariah (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 5/2# Turf
2 05-11-2018 1st race 6 Blurred Line (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles D Gargan 1/1# Turf
3 05-11-2018 1st race 2 Surface Strike (NY) (MTO) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 6/5# Turf
4 05-11-2018 2nd race 4 Princess Maeve (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs R R Rodriguez 2/1# Dirt
5 05-11-2018 2nd race 5 Pumpernickel Basil (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs M Nevin 5/2# Dirt
6 05-11-2018 3rd race 2 Believe Indeed (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles D S Ryan 8/5# Turf
7 05-11-2018 3rd race 3 Patriotic Endeavor (KY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 5/2# Turf
8 05-11-2018 4th race 6 Devamani (FR) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles C Clement 9/5# Turf
9 05-11-2018 4th race 5 Halloween Horror (KY) (MTO) Allowance One And One Fourth Miles J P Terranova II 6/5# Turf
10 05-11-2018 5th race 1 No Need to Appeal (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 2/1# Dirt
11 05-11-2018 5th race 2 Short Kakes (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D A Cannizzo 5/2# Dirt
12 05-11-2018 6th race 7 Special Trip (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles J R Abreu 5/2# Turf
13 05-11-2018 8th race 2 Inspector Lynley (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile C R McGaughey III 9/5# Turf
14 05-11-2018 8th race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One Mile D Jacobson 7/5# Turf
15 05-11-2018 9th race 5 Tres Charmant (NY) Claiming Six Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
16 05-11-2018 9th race 11 Ribbonite (NY) (MTO) Claiming Six Furlongs D Gargan 2/1# Turf
Let's see how they do today!!!
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There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group
With 6 Turf races yesterday the 3 win total is about what was expected
Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is +1
I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-12-2018 1st race 2 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
2 05-12-2018 3rd race 1 Sounds Delicious (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Dirt
3 05-12-2018 3rd race 3 Chalon (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs A Delacour 5/2# Dirt
4 05-12-2018 3rd race 6 Holiday Disguise (NY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
5 05-12-2018 5th race 5 Voodoo Song (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
6 05-12-2018 5th race 7 American Guru (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 1/1# Turf
7 05-12-2018 5th race 1 Forge (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 4/5# Turf
8 05-12-2018 6th race 2 Patch (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 9/5# Dirt
9 05-12-2018 7th race 2 Cloontia (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 5/2# Turf
10 05-12-2018 7th race 13 Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 2/1# Turf
11 05-12-2018 8th race 1 Skylers Scramjet (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs M Nevin 7/5# Dirt
12 05-12-2018 8th race 2 Westwood (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
13 05-12-2018 9th race 2 Inflexibility (ON) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 8/5# Turf
14 05-12-2018 9th race 6 A Raving Beauty (GER) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 05-12-2018 10th race 1 Core Beliefs (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles P Eurton 2/1# Dirt
16 05-12-2018 11th race 7 Hi Happy (ARG) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf
Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 10:04 AM.
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05-12-2018, 10:17 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.
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05-12-2018, 10:28 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I believe as a point of information maybe a the last month of aqueduct, and now Belmont, they changed morning line makers. The guy making the morning line is a very astute handicapper. Not sure the numbers have bore that out as he is only trying to predict what the public will do but I thought it worth mentioning.
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Hey GMB
Yeah I hear you and I know it’s just a predictor for the public but I’m just interested to see what they actually go on to do and how many wins they happen to get with the tag of Morning Line Favorite (MLF) less than 3-1
It would actually be great if I could track the actual final odds but they change the odds while the race is running which has been posted in this forum many times so I use the Morning Lines
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-12-2018 at 10:35 AM.
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05-13-2018, 11:24 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
There was a slight spike yesterday as there were 3 winners from this group
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I am expecting this group to do better maybe 5 wins today as they are involved in only 4 Turf races
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-12-2018 1st race 2 A True Giant (NY) Allowance Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 6/5# Dirt
2 05-12-2018 3rd race 1 Sounds Delicious (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 2/1# Dirt
3 05-12-2018 3rd race 3 Chalon (KY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs A Delacour 5/2# Dirt
4 05-12-2018 3rd race 6 Holiday Disguise (NY) Stakes Six And One Half Furlongs L Rice 9/5# Dirt
5 05-12-2018 5th race 5 Voodoo Song (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs L Rice 5/2# Turf
6 05-12-2018 5th race 7 American Guru (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs J A Jerkens 1/1# Turf
7 05-12-2018 5th race 1 Forge (KY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming Seven Furlongs R R Rodriguez 4/5# Turf
8 05-12-2018 6th race 2 Patch (KY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles T A Pletcher 9/5# Dirt
9 05-12-2018 7th race 2 Cloontia (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles J A Jerkens 5/2# Turf
10 05-12-2018 7th race 13 Gucci Factor (NY) (MTO) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 2/1# Turf
11 05-12-2018 8th race 1 Skylers Scramjet (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs M Nevin 7/5# Dirt
12 05-12-2018 8th race 2 Westwood (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
13 05-12-2018 9th race 2 Inflexibility (ON) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 8/5# Turf
14 05-12-2018 9th race 6 A Raving Beauty (GER) Stakes One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 2/1# Turf
15 05-12-2018 10th race 1 Core Beliefs (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles P Eurton 2/1# Dirt
16 05-12-2018 11th race 7 Hi Happy (ARG) Stakes One And Three Eighth Miles T A Pletcher 5/2# Turf
Let's see how they do today at Belmont!!!
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There was a slight spike yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but they could only sniff out 4 wins yesterday at Belmont
However, you did get a 28% return on your money playing them to win yesterday.
A profit is very rare from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 but the upset in th 5th race from the Morning Line 5-2 winner #5 Voodoo Song helped to boost prices!!!
Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 3 to 1 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +1
I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont
There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-13-2018 1st race 3 Data Driven (KY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 8/5# Dirt
2 05-13-2018 1st race 6 The Caretaker (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 5/2# Dirt
3 05-13-2018 2nd race 1 Barefoot Angel (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
4 05-13-2018 2nd race 2 Irish Marauder (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G Weaver 5/2# Dirt
5 05-13-2018 3rd race 4 Engage (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
6 05-13-2018 4th race 2 Panic Attack (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles G Sciacca 5/2# Dirt
7 05-13-2018 4th race 3 Santo Antonio (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 4/5# Dirt
8 05-13-2018 5th race 5 First Tomoe (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 1/1# Dirt
9 05-13-2018 6th race 4 Rugbyman (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile H G Motion 5/2# Dirt
10 05-13-2018 7th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
11 05-13-2018 10th race 6 Battle of Saratoga (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 1/2# Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!
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05-13-2018, 12:02 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area
The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!
3rd race
#4 Engage
5th race
#5 First Tomoe
10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga
Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
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05-14-2018, 05:02 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
I suspect the surface will be wet today at Belmont as the rain continues to drench the Tri-State area
The even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) have won 14 of their last 18 races on a wet Surface at Belmont going back to May 11th, 2014!!!
3rd race
#4 Engage
5th race
#5 First Tomoe
10th race
#6 Battle of Saratoga
Let's see how these do today they won't pay much of a price but better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
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Well the even money Morning Line Favorites (i.e. 1-1,1-2,,,,1-9) went 1 for 2 yesterday as #5 First Tomoe disappointed and finished 3rd
However, #4 Engage got the win paying $3.5 for the win!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
As I always say it's much better to take it from them before they take it from you!!!
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05-14-2018, 05:18 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
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I am expecting this group to get close to 5 wins today as they are involved in only 1 Turf race today at Belmont
There are 3 even money Morning Line Favorites in the 3rd, 5th and 10th races!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-13-2018 1st race 3 Data Driven (KY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 8/5# Dirt
2 05-13-2018 1st race 6 The Caretaker (NY) Starter Allowance Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 5/2# Dirt
3 05-13-2018 2nd race 1 Barefoot Angel (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C Baker 2/1# Dirt
4 05-13-2018 2nd race 2 Irish Marauder (NY) Maiden Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs G Weaver 5/2# Dirt
5 05-13-2018 3rd race 4 Engage (KY) Stakes Six Furlongs C C Brown 1/1# Dirt
6 05-13-2018 4th race 2 Panic Attack (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles G Sciacca 5/2# Dirt
7 05-13-2018 4th race 3 Santo Antonio (NY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 4/5# Dirt
8 05-13-2018 5th race 5 First Tomoe (KY) Claiming Seven Furlongs S M Asmussen 1/1# Dirt
9 05-13-2018 6th race 4 Rugbyman (KY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile H G Motion 5/2# Dirt
10 05-13-2018 7th race 2 Best Performance (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C Clement 5/2# Turf
11 05-13-2018 10th race 6 Battle of Saratoga (NY) Maiden Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles H G Motion 1/2# Dirt
Let's see how they do today!!!
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There was a slight drop yesterday as I expected 5 wins from the group but could only get 3 wins yesterday at Belmont
I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!
You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager
One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day
How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!
Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1
I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-14-2018 at 05:26 PM.
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05-17-2018, 09:39 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
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I don't think 5 or 6 wins will come from the group of Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 any time soon. The wins will hover around 3 or 4 per day from this group but let's keep an eye on them!!!
You lost $1 if you played all Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 to win yesterday due in part to the $18.10 payout across the board from #3 Data Driven per $2 win place and show wager
One more win from the MLFs less than 3-1 would have put win returns on the plus side for the day
How I of all people could miss a horse called Data Driven I will never know!!!
Other MLF's beat 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) by a 2 to 1 margin
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is down -1
I'm hoping for a spike next week of at least +1 to the index!!!
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There was a spike yesterday from the Morning Lines less than 3-1 they had 5 winners on the wet stuff at Belmont!!!
Interesting to note that 4 of the 5 winners came after the 5th race yesterday, including 2 back to back wins from the group to complete the late daily double along with exactas in the 5th race and 9th races!!!
Prior to the 4th race yesterday the Morning Lines less than 3-1 went 4 for their last 14 and then went on to win 4 of their last 7 races
The 5ers (Morning Lines ending with 5) crushed other MLF's by a 5 to 0 margin including 3 straight wins to complete the late pick 3 at Belmont!!!
The Belmont Morning Line Favorites Index (MLFI) is up +2 since yesterday!!!
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05-17-2018, 09:48 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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I suspect that the good times will not last today for the Morning Lines less than 3-1 at Belmont
I am thinking there will be at most 3 winners from this group today I suspect a downward slope \ today and possibly a spike tomorrow!!!
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 05-17-2018 1st race 3 Stop Thinking (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile D Gargan 7/5# Dirt
2 05-17-2018 1st race 6 Carlisle Belle (NY) Maiden Claiming One Mile G Sciacca 2/1# Dirt
3 05-17-2018 2nd race 3 Outshine (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five Furlongs T A Pletcher 4/5# Dirt
4 05-17-2018 3rd race 3 Classy Class (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs K P McLaughlin 2/1# Dirt
5 05-17-2018 3rd race 4 Favorable Outcome (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 8/5# Dirt
6 05-17-2018 3rd race 5 Hoffenheim (KY) Allowance Optional Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Jacobson 5/2# Dirt
7 05-17-2018 4th race 1 High Moon (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles M J Maker 8/5# Turf
8 05-17-2018 4th race 3 With Exultation (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles L Rice 7/5# Turf
9 05-17-2018 4th race 10 Mobridge (NY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles W I Mott 5/2# Turf
10 05-17-2018 4th race 7 Beckers Galaxy (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles R R Rodriguez 2/1# Turf
11 05-17-2018 4th race 9 Pegasus Red (NY) (MTO) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles A C Avila 5/2# Turf
12 05-17-2018 5th race 1 Morning Buzz (FL) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs E R Barker 6/5# Dirt
13 05-17-2018 5th race 3 Full Salute (KY) Claiming Six And One Half Furlongs D Gargan 5/2# Dirt
14 05-17-2018 6th race 2 Deeply Undervalued (KY) Claiming One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 4/5# Turf
15 05-17-2018 7th race 4 Pas de Deuce (NY) Maiden Special Weight One Mile J Morrison 2/1# Dirt
16 05-17-2018 8th race 4 Awsum Roar (NY) Starter Allowance Six Furlongs J Servis 2/1# Turf
Let's see how the MLF's do today at Belmont!!!
Last edited by TheOracle; 05-17-2018 at 09:49 AM.
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