Morning Line Odds Statistics

[bgbootha]

Alright, long story short, I am looking for some data on how the ML favorite fairs. I of course have a beautiful database with 30,000+ races, but all of my data is based on PT odds and not ML odds.

Basically I want to know:

1 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite win the race?
2 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite show in the race?

The other data set that I am looking for that I am surprised I can't find reliably, what is the average win payout across the country?

Thanks for any help

[traynor]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Alright, long story short, I am looking for some data on how the ML favorite fairs. I of course have a beautiful database with 30,000+ races, but all of my data is based on PT odds and not ML odds.

Basically I want to know:

1 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite win the race?
2 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite show in the race?

The other data set that I am looking for that I am surprised I can't find reliably, what is the average win payout across the country?

Thanks for any help

It varies by track. Lumping all tracks (and all morning lines) together generates a very precise, impressive appearing (and mostly worthless) generalization. From my own experience, I can tell you it is probably easier to code functions to extract the (current) ML figures and attach them to the appropriate data files going forward than to look (only) at older races and hope whatever one finds is replicated in present and future races. It rarely works out like that.

Building a meaningful clump of races to parse goes faster than it might seem. Meaning, when you get an idea you are curious about, you may find it more useful to code functions to generate the desired data (beginning with current races) than trying to see what happened last year. Others are likely looking at the same thing, and the results of last year's races were the result of their not knowing then what they know now.

Some very enthusiastic bettors are continually data mining race results with some very effective software apps looking for profitable wagering opportunities. Correlations of morning line odds with last minute odds with final odds on a track-by-track basis are pretty much plain vanilla stats that many consider entry level, and generate routinely.

[Ocala Mike]

How precise do you need to be? If you have elegant data regarding post-time odds, why not simply adjust DOWNWARD by a constant amount for ML odds (unless we want to assume that the ML maker at the track(s) you are interested in is OUTHANDICAPPING the public consistently)?

For example, if your data shows post-time favorites winning at a .33 clip, simply adjust this to, say, .30 for ML favorites.

If your data shows ITM at a .77 clip, simply adjust maybe to .70.

Does anyone feel that ML faves are outperforming post-time faves anywhere? I don't, except maybe for a short meeting here or there.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

... The other data set that I am looking for that I am surprised I can't find reliably, what is the average win payout across the country?

Thanks for any help

I recall periodically seeing something similar but provided by track. It may have been DRF. Try and email them maybe they can provide it or point you in the right direction.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Alright, long story short, I am looking for some data on how the ML favorite fairs. I of course have a beautiful database with 30,000+ races, but all of my data is based on PT odds and not ML odds.

Basically I want to know:

1 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite win the race?
2 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite show in the race?

The other data set that I am looking for that I am surprised I can't find reliably, what is the average win payout across the country?

Thanks for any help

I provide the morning line stats (along with a few others) for several active major tracks but I don't have morning line data on inactive tracks.

Top Horse Analytics: 03/02/2015 Weekly Statistics

[davew]

Originally Posted by Augenj

I provide the morning line stats (along with a few others) for several active major tracks but I don't have morning line data on inactive tracks.

Top Horse Analytics: 03/02/2015 Weekly Statistics

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Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by davew

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You don't have permission to access /topic/38725-top-horse-analytics-03022015-weekly-statistics/ on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

I block everybody from outside the US and Canada by IP addresses. Once in awhile, I whack an American. I'll edit the topic and post the results here. If you want into the site, send me your IP in a message. Here's how you find your IP:
Whats My IP

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by Augenj

I block everybody from outside the US and Canada by IP addresses. Once in awhile, I whack an American. I'll edit the topic and post the results here. If you want into the site, send me your IP in a message. Here's how you find your IP:
Whats My IP

OK, this is a subset of a subset.

Weekly Stats For Current Year At AQU
Start Of Logical Year: 12/03/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 388
Number Of Wins: 152
Win Per Cent: 39.18
Dollars In: 776.00
Dollars Out: 695.60
Profit: -80.40
ROI: 0.8964

M/L Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 97.42
Number Of Races: 378 *
Number Of Wins: 133
Win Per Cent: 35.19
Dollars In: 756.00
Dollars Out: 660.70
Profit: -95.30
ROI: 0.8739
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At GP
Start Of Logical Year: 12/06/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At GP
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 648
Number Of Wins: 230
Win Per Cent: 35.49
Dollars In: 1296.00
Dollars Out: 1139.70
Profit: -156.30
ROI: 0.8794

M/L Favorites At GP
Occurs Per Cent: 99.69
Number Of Races: 646 *
Number Of Wins: 193
Win Per Cent: 29.88
Dollars In: 1292.00
Dollars Out: 1005.30
Profit: -286.70
ROI: 0.7781
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At OP
Start Of Logical Year: 01/15/2015
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At OP
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 243
Number Of Wins: 74
Win Per Cent: 30.45
Dollars In: 486.00
Dollars Out: 390.40
Profit: -95.60
ROI: 0.8033

M/L Favorites At OP
Occurs Per Cent: 99.18
Number Of Races: 241 *
Number Of Wins: 75
Win Per Cent: 31.12
Dollars In: 482.00
Dollars Out: 440.40
Profit: -41.60
ROI: 0.9137
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At SA
Start Of Logical Year: 09/26/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 572
Number Of Wins: 205
Win Per Cent: 35.84
Dollars In: 1144.00
Dollars Out: 1001.20
Profit: -142.80
ROI: 0.8752

M/L Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 98.78
Number Of Races: 565 *
Number Of Wins: 191
Win Per Cent: 33.81
Dollars In: 1130.00
Dollars Out: 988.60
Profit: -141.40
ROI: 0.8749
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At TAM
Start Of Logical Year: 11/29/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 524
Number Of Wins: 182
Win Per Cent: 34.73
Dollars In: 1048.00
Dollars Out: 958.80
Profit: -89.20
ROI: 0.9149

M/L Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 524 *
Number Of Wins: 151
Win Per Cent: 28.82
Dollars In: 1048.00
Dollars Out: 859.40
Profit: -188.60
ROI: 0.8200
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

[bgbootha]

This is awesome stuff,

@Traynor, I am looking at this to try and find an idea of how to qualify the idea of a false ML favorite, while trying to find value in races pre-handicapping if that makes sense.

There are hundreds of races a day, some will provide value others won't. Are there characteristics that I can look for to point me toward the places to spend more time and energy.

[Ocala Mike]

All great stuff! Bears out my intuitive estimate that ML faves are underperforming post-time faves by a few percentage points (except at OP).

I think one could mine this data to not only scope out false ML faves but false post-time faves as well, with the right filters, of course.

[TheOracle]

Originally Posted by Augenj

OK, this is a subset of a subset.

Weekly Stats For Current Year At AQU
Start Of Logical Year: 12/03/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 388
Number Of Wins: 152
Win Per Cent: 39.18
Dollars In: 776.00
Dollars Out: 695.60
Profit: -80.40
ROI: 0.8964

M/L Favorites At AQU
Occurs Per Cent: 97.42
Number Of Races: 378 *
Number Of Wins: 133
Win Per Cent: 35.19
Dollars In: 756.00
Dollars Out: 660.70
Profit: -95.30
ROI: 0.8739
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At GP
Start Of Logical Year: 12/06/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At GP
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 648
Number Of Wins: 230
Win Per Cent: 35.49
Dollars In: 1296.00
Dollars Out: 1139.70
Profit: -156.30
ROI: 0.8794

M/L Favorites At GP
Occurs Per Cent: 99.69
Number Of Races: 646 *
Number Of Wins: 193
Win Per Cent: 29.88
Dollars In: 1292.00
Dollars Out: 1005.30
Profit: -286.70
ROI: 0.7781
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At OP
Start Of Logical Year: 01/15/2015
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At OP
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 243
Number Of Wins: 74
Win Per Cent: 30.45
Dollars In: 486.00
Dollars Out: 390.40
Profit: -95.60
ROI: 0.8033

M/L Favorites At OP
Occurs Per Cent: 99.18
Number Of Races: 241 *
Number Of Wins: 75
Win Per Cent: 31.12
Dollars In: 482.00
Dollars Out: 440.40
Profit: -41.60
ROI: 0.9137
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At SA
Start Of Logical Year: 09/26/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 572
Number Of Wins: 205
Win Per Cent: 35.84
Dollars In: 1144.00
Dollars Out: 1001.20
Profit: -142.80
ROI: 0.8752

M/L Favorites At SA
Occurs Per Cent: 98.78
Number Of Races: 565 *
Number Of Wins: 191
Win Per Cent: 33.81
Dollars In: 1130.00
Dollars Out: 988.60
Profit: -141.40
ROI: 0.8749
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count


Weekly Stats For Current Year At TAM
Start Of Logical Year: 11/29/2014
Updated Through: 03/01/2015
Totals Based on $2.00 Win Bets

Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 524
Number Of Wins: 182
Win Per Cent: 34.73
Dollars In: 1048.00
Dollars Out: 958.80
Profit: -89.20
ROI: 0.9149

M/L Favorites At TAM
Occurs Per Cent: 100.00
Number Of Races: 524 *
Number Of Wins: 151
Win Per Cent: 28.82
Dollars In: 1048.00
Dollars Out: 859.40
Profit: -188.60
ROI: 0.8200
* Duplicate M/L favorites (resulting from scratched M/L favorite) are not included in race count

Hey Augenj,

I don't know how I missed this post last year regarding Morning Line Odds Stats. I tie out exactly to your number of races at 388 for the period 12/03/2014 to: 03/01/2015



Now, as far as the Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct, you have 133 wins while I have 129 wins in which case we are close. I check for each instance that there is one of these in a race (5/2, 2/1, and *All/5)

*All/5 is any Morning Line Favorite ending with a 5 (i.e. 2/5, 3/5, etc.) so for my purposes I am calling all of these the Morning Line Favorites.

I have 382 races involving what I call the Morning Line Favorites while you have 378 again we are close.

What's interesting here though, is that you have $756 as the total cost while I have $764 which is an $8 difference and seems to make up for the 4 wins where we differ.

Also for Dollars Out, you have $660.70 while I have $643.70 and the difference is just $17 we almost match to the dime here so I feel that I am very close to what you have.

I decided to peel back some layers and looked at the Morning Line 5/2's in Sprint races (races less than 1 Mile) for that period.

I found that in Maiden races the 5/2 Morning Lines won 12 out of 26 races and you got a 22% return on your money in this situation.





So, even though betting the overall Morning Line favorites cost you about $100 in loses, if you picked your spots and played the Morning Line 5/2's in Maiden races during that time period you would have made a 22% return at a cost of $52 not too shabby and it beats spending close to $800 for the season!!

[Track Collector]

Originally Posted by bgbootha

Alright, long story short, I am looking for some data on how the ML favorite fairs. I of course have a beautiful database with 30,000+ races, but all of my data is based on PT odds and not ML odds.

Basically I want to know:

1 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite win the race?
2 - What percentage of the time does the ML favorite show in the race?

The other data set that I am looking for that I am surprised I can't find reliably, what is the average win payout across the country?

Thanks for any help

From my database which includes virtually every track that ran races in the US and Canada in 2015, I get:

1 --> 32.68% Return for each $1 bet is $ 0.8096
2 --> 65.82% Return for each $1 bet is $ 0.8448

The average win payout for all horses was $ 11.67
The average win payout when the horse was the Morning Line Favorite was $4.97

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey Augenj,

I don't know how I missed this post last year regarding Morning Line Odds Stats. I tie out exactly to your number of races at 388 for the period 12/03/2014 to: 03/01/2015

Now, as far as the Morning Line Favorites at Aqueduct, you have 133 wins while I have 129 wins in which case we are close. I check for each instance that there is one of these in a race (5/2, 2/1, and *All/5)

*All/5 is any Morning Line Favorite ending with a 5 (i.e. 2/5, 3/5, etc.) so for my purposes I am calling all of these the Morning Line Favorites.

I have 382 races involving what I call the Morning Line Favorites while you have 378 again we are close.

What's interesting here though, is that you have $756 as the total cost while I have $764 which is an $8 difference and seems to make up for the 4 wins where we differ.

Also for Dollars Out, you have $660.70 while I have $643.70 and the difference is just $17 we almost match to the dime here so I feel that I am very close to what you have.

I decided to peel back some layers and looked at the Morning Line 5/2's in Sprint races (races less than 1 Mile) for that period.

I found that in Maiden races the 5/2 Morning Lines won 12 out of 26 races and you got a 22% return on your money in this situation.


So, even though betting the overall Morning Line favorites cost you about $100 in loses, if you picked your spots and played the Morning Line 5/2's in Maiden races during that time period you would have made a 22% return at a cost of $52 not too shabby and it beats spending close to $800 for the season!!

Yes, it looks pretty close as far as the numbers go. Some of the differences might be that I don't count the race if the morning line favorite is scratched and the race is left with duplicate morning line favorites. This is done programmatically and subject to coding errors by me or even the data I use. We're pretty close though.