selection service - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

sam i am · 06-09-2013, 12:49 PM

does anyone here subscribe to Ryan Patterson (Derby Wars) selection service?
how do you like it?

Thanks
David

sam i am · 06-13-2013, 10:54 AM

has anyone done an analysis of any of the selection services out there?
ie. personal experience, reviewing the previous days selections etc.

Thanks

JJMartin · 06-13-2013, 01:51 PM

From what I have seen, and analyzed from previous performances of some of these sites, they are no better than what a basic capper could achieve and some are completely ridiculous. Not saying a quality site doesn't exist, just haven't seen any myself.

lamboguy · 06-13-2013, 01:54 PM

i don't know if this guy is still around, but he used to advertise in the New York Post every week that he goes 7-0 almost every week in pro football. the guy was unreal, he never had a loser! his name was Kevin Duffy.

thaskalos · 06-13-2013, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i don't know if this guy is still around, but he used to advertise in the New York Post every week that he goes 7-0 almost every week in pro football. the guy was unreal, he never had a loser! his name was Kevin Duffy.

He is still around...but rumor has it that he has changed his name a few times.

Stillriledup · 06-13-2013, 04:50 PM

I should open a selection service, i'll give you my picks and you can toss them out blindly knowing they have no chance to win. That has to be worth something, right?

traynor · 06-13-2013, 05:23 PM

It's a lot like developing software for "analyzing races." People expect to get it free, or for a nominal cost, and then to make large sums using it. The bottom line in both selections and racing software is the question, "If it is so good, why is it being sold?"

Unfortunately (for most, but fortunately for me and a few others) it is generally a case of, "I'll try to make money using this myself, and if it fails, I can always sell it." There are "selections" available (more appropriately referred to as "proprietary computer output") but the good ones are definitely not cheap, and not readily available. The same goes for computer apps. If it is for sale to anyone with the price, it is safe to assume that its value is less than spectacular.

Anyone serious about wagering using a selection service would do well to look into what is available in the UK and Australia. Ignore the junk offered to the general public, and concentrate on the stuff the professional bettors use.

thaskalos · 06-13-2013, 06:48 PM

Now that I've had more time to think about it...selection services play an important role in this game. They offer the enterprising player an expedient way of replenishing his bankroll after he goes busted...so he can get back into the game in short order.

traynor · 06-13-2013, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Now that I've had more time to think about it...selection services play an important role in this game. They offer the enterprising player an expedient way of replenishing his bankroll after he goes busted...so he can get back into the game in short order.

And that with a straight face. Well done.

I think selection services (good ones) have a very definite place in the scheme of things. I am relatively clueless (currently) about races in the UK and Australia, and lack the motivation to do the in-depth study, research, and record-keeping necessary to wager profitably on their races. If I were on vacation, or wanted for some reason to wager on those races, it would take me months of work to achieve the insights that I can buy for a relatively modest amount of money.

I have done the in-depth study, research, and record-keeping necessary in the past, and it is way too much work (for me) unless I intend to move to Australia and focus on Australian races full-time. Perhaps others can do it casually. I cannot.

erikeepper · 06-14-2013, 04:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by traynor

And that with a straight face. Well done.

I think selection services (good ones) have a very definite place in the scheme of things. I am relatively clueless (currently) about races in the UK and Australia, and lack the motivation to do the in-depth study, research, and record-keeping necessary to wager profitably on their races. If I were on vacation, or wanted for some reason to wager on those races, it would take me months of work to achieve the insights that I can buy for a relatively modest amount of money.

I have done the in-depth study, research, and record-keeping necessary in the past, and it is way too much work (for me) unless I intend to move to Australia and focus on Australian races full-time. Perhaps others can do it casually. I cannot.

UK is not that hard to beat. Well at least if you play casually 1-2 horses per day. Don't know what happens if you try to increase the volume. I am just looking in to it now. The nice thing is there are lot of bookies and betfair so you can shop for the best price. There are also many free and subscripton databases that will get you started. You can get a lot of data from UK.

judd · 06-14-2013, 07:15 AM

maury kram was the best

Hoofless_Wonder · 06-14-2013, 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i don't know if this guy is still around, but he used to advertise in the New York Post every week that he goes 7-0 almost every week in pro football. the guy was unreal, he never had a loser! his name was Kevin Duffy.

Sports betting services and the associated "steam rooms" are an unbelievable world of corruption. Where as most degenerate horseplayers want to make their own picks, the losing sports bettor is always looking for, as Wayne Root would say, "The Gift of Life". A lock to get them out of the hole.

Back in the early 1990's there was an annual publication that rated the sports services on a grade scale from A to F. Only a handful showed a profit, with the vast majority in the D and F range. Then one of the consortiums in that world (Feist maybe) bought that pub, and the next year, somehow, magically, all their associated services were getting an 'A' grade.

I suppose there a number of legit services out there for the horses, but it seems like a tough way to make a living. One cold streak for a week or so, and you'd lose half your clients. And if you did happen to have some success, your clients wouldn't want to share that news and drive prices down, so how do you grow your business?

Robert Goren · 06-14-2013, 09:33 AM

I am amazed that the guys even exist. Who in their right mind would buy anything from them? If they knew anything, they wouldn't be selling it. They'd be betting it.

acorn54 · 06-14-2013, 10:35 AM

i think if someone had a resume of success in handicapping contests he could launch a respectable career in the tip sheet world.
i think there is a market for selectors who can reinforce a handicapper's opinion of a race. some bettors i know just feel more confident when a reputable public handicapper comes up with the same horse(s) as they do in a race.

traynor · 06-14-2013, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by acorn54

i think if someone had a resume of success in handicapping contests he could launch a respectable career in the tip sheet world.
i think there is a market for selectors who can reinforce a handicapper's opinion of a race. some bettors i know just feel more confident when a reputable public handicapper comes up with the same horse(s) as they do in a race.

That may be counter-productive. The people who are tentative and uncertain about their own selection skills might be willing to pay a few bucks to have someone else to blame when they lose, but are unlikely to be willing to pay the fees required by limited distribution selectors. That is, the base of the pyramid buyers tend to get the selections that assure they will stay at the base of the pyramid.

I am not convinced that the selections produced by either a contest winner or a reputable public handicapper can do any better--in the real world, on future races--than the average bettor can do if he or she exerts a bit of effort to improve her or his analytical skills.

Over the years I have become acquainted with a number of race analysts who are quite good at what they do. None offers "selections" for sale to the general public--all are limited distribution to a very limited customer base. To the best of my knowledge, none has entered (or considered entering) "handicapping contests" and none could be considered (or ever has been considered) a "public handicapper."

Do I buy ratings? Occasionally, when I am on break, or when I want to bet on races about which I have no data of my own. That is mostly for UK and Australian races, occasionally Swedish harness races, and South African thoroughbred races. I figure my own numbers are as good as I can get for the US and Canada. I would like to get serious numbers for the Sha Tin/Happy Valley circuit (produced by analysts onsite, who are wired in to the tracks, watch workouts, watch all the races, take trip notes, etc., etc.)

I place no value whatsoever on "ratings" generated by computer apps that simply crunch numbers, without the added onsite information generated by trained, knowledgeable, competent observers. I am much more impressed by analysts with a track record of winning very large amounts of money than those who have won handicapping contests or who are (or have been) public handicappers.