3 YO FORM REVERSAL HORSES + ODDS,ODDS,ODDS

[omar2]

As we're on the Triple Crown trail now it pays to pay attention for 3 yo's who can without any indication throw out a big effort.
What I pointed out in my book, in the bonus section, is an unusually fast workout since the horse's last race (12 sec. per furlong or faster) while all previous listed works were unremarkabl (:49, 1:01)etc.
Case in point, 2019 derby winner Country House. Posted that 1:00 last work since his LAST RACE, after a series of slow works. True, horse has been running well in last 3-4 races and even closed well in slop at Oaklawn (a SUSTAINED track wet or dry). Now look at his odds in last 4 races. Do you really think he should have been dismissed at 63-1?? I think not. Just because the oddsmaker made him 30-1 ml. These guys go by Beyer speed numbers and also set the line while the live pp draw is going on! Too much pressure and not a lot of thought.
Look at Instilled Regard in 2018. Do you really think he should be dismissed at 85-1?? Oddsmaker made him 50-1 ml. Why?? Look at his pp's.
Those 2 horses should have been used in the exotics and CH bet straight.
Any horse in these races that are dismissed at 30-1 or more should be checked.
Even 20-1.
Omar

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/a...1&d=1707933844

[lamboguy]

times don't mean to much in workouts unless you know how the horse did it. they don't show you the splits on the works, and you don't know how much the horse was asked to get to the time they worked.

3 weeks ago i played a first time starter at Parx, Kathleen Demasi was the trainer. the horse was a colt and just got beat at the wire @ 2-1. the next day the horses workmate which was a filly, who happened to have been dusted by the colt that finished second, she won and paid $70 and won like a real good thing trained by the same trainer.

[omar2]

I’ve tested this method over 25 years. You sound like a very successful handicapper going after 2-1 shots. My advice to you is to keep doing what you’re doing and ignore my posts. One of these days if I’m ever able to walk again and I happen to spot you on the soup line, I’ll be sure to toss you a bone.

[MJC922]

Toasting a tall glass of Angels Envy to the board during Friday happy hour.

Good luck this weekend folks.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Your 2 examples in Country House and Instilled Regard fall into the category of plodders that can clunk up into the Tri/Super.

I also had Giacomo that could clunk up, but actually went on to win.

What all of these need is a really fast pace, with the added distance of the Derby, which well over 2/3rds of the field will never run 10F ever again.

All the longshot winners of Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Rich Strike, and Country House this century are all deep deep closers that got near perfect trips.

Mine That Birdis the oddball here. He had never shown any tendency to close from nowhereville before, and wouldn't even have gotten anywhere close to the starting gate with today's point system. Took a sloppy track, Bo-Rail, and a perfect rail trip to get it done along with a very weak 3YO crop that year.

Giacomo and Instilled Regard I consider almost twins. Both finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby and were the only ones making up any ground on the winner late in the race on the proverbial conveyor belt that is Santa Anita for front-runners.

I actually threw a couple of nickels across on Giacomo simply because of Mike Smith. Instilled Regard, nothing but bottom end of Tris/Supers.

Country House got the benefit of a fast pace, the inside being completely involved in mayhem, a great outside trip, and survived a DQ.

Rich Strike? I liked the two others from the Turfway preps in Tawny Port and Tiz the Bomb better, with my most liked in Tawny slipping in on the bottom end. Rich Strike then got the most amazing incredible weaving rail trip in likely Kentucky Derby history to get it done.

None of these had anything to do with works leading into the Kentucky Derby.

[omar2]

Look at the pp’s of Country House again. That 5f work at 1:00 since his last race was considerably faster than all his previously slow works that I believe contributed to his form reversal which seems to be prevalent in 3 yo’s during the first half of the year. Mr. Big News in the Rebel several years back showed the same type of workout pattern. Whether stake horses or maidens, when the pattern shows up- just bet it. I had other examples in my maiden book.

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128631

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128631

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128631

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128631

[omar2]

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128796

http://216.92.33.211/forum/attachmen...1&d=1708128796

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Country House wasn't a form reversal.

He was deep closer that would be coming late and if a hot pace developed he may pick up some scraps like he had always done.

Massive mayhem happened in the 6 inside paths headed for home, and he got the cleanest trip of the others, and then needed a DQ for the Win.

Don't make it like it was some masterful handicapping brilliance and selection that Country House got the W that day.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by omar2

I’ve tested this method over 25 years. You sound like a very successful handicapper going after 2-1 shots. My advice to you is to keep doing what you’re doing and ignore my posts. One of these days if I’m ever able to walk again and I happen to spot you on the soup line, I’ll be sure to toss you a bone.

This is a low blow that's totally unwarranted, IMO. Lamboguy made a valid point, and he did it in a way that didn't insult you in the least. Funny that you want to throw Lamboguy a "bone"...when it was YOU who came here to sell your handicapping software so you can pay your hospital bills. Don't worry about Lamboguy and his "handicapping expertise", friend. Worry about yourself.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Your 2 examples in Country House and Instilled Regard fall into the category of plodders that can clunk up into the Tri/Super.

I also had Giacomo that could clunk up, but actually went on to win.

What all of these need is a really fast pace, with the added distance of the Derby, which well over 2/3rds of the field will never run 10F ever again.

All the longshot winners of Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Rich Strike, and Country House this century are all deep deep closers that got near perfect trips.

Mine That Birdis the oddball here. He had never shown any tendency to close from nowhereville before, and wouldn't even have gotten anywhere close to the starting gate with today's point system. Took a sloppy track, Bo-Rail, and a perfect rail trip to get it done along with a very weak 3YO crop that year.

Giacomo and Instilled Regard I consider almost twins. Both finished 4th in the Santa Anita Derby and were the only ones making up any ground on the winner late in the race on the proverbial conveyor belt that is Santa Anita for front-runners.

I actually threw a couple of nickels across on Giacomo simply because of Mike Smith. Instilled Regard, nothing but bottom end of Tris/Supers.

Country House got the benefit of a fast pace, the inside being completely involved in mayhem, a great outside trip, and survived a DQ.

Rich Strike? I liked the two others from the Turfway preps in Tawny Port and Tiz the Bomb better, with my most liked in Tawny slipping in on the bottom end. Rich Strike then got the most amazing incredible weaving rail trip in likely Kentucky Derby history to get it done.

None of these had anything to do with works leading into the Kentucky Derby.

Mine That Bird by Birdstone..A horse that during his racing career, did very well on the off going. I think that aspect was a major contributing factor to the win

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by thespaah

Mine That Bird by Birdstone..A horse that during his racing career, did very well on the off going. I think that aspect was a major contributing factor to the win

Maybe. He showed up in the Preakness and Belmont.

I think when it all came down to it, that was a terrible crop and he was able to take advantage with a newfound running style and at the right time.

[cj]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This is a low blow that's totally unwarranted, IMO. Lamboguy made a valid point, and he did it in a way that didn't insult you in the least. Funny that you want to throw Lamboguy a "bone"...when it was YOU who came here to sell your handicapping software so you can pay your hospital bills. Don't worry about Lamboguy and his "handicapping expertise", friend. Worry about yourself.

Spot on.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Maybe. He showed up in the Preakness and Belmont.

I think when it all came down to it, that was a terrible crop and he was able to take advantage with a newfound running style and at the right time.

Since MTB was a gelding (ergo connections perhaps less likely to pursue season honors) and I suspected they would duck the filly at Pimlico, I started recruiting him for our derby very shortly after the shocker.

Mission accomplished. Sadly, though, as it turned out, reports of the horse galloping sore over our main track proved prophetic as MTB got a fast pace to close at, but was outkicked by a no-hope LS named Soul of the Matter. Since the winner came from even FURTHER back than MTB, I still bristle at the occasional suggestion that MTB'S local loss can be attributed to giving the front too much rope.

MTB hit town as damaged goods, thus playing into a suspicion of mine that ANY derby winner, regardless of running style or suitability to Pimlico, that bypasses the Preakness probably has serious physical issues-a theory since borne out (human drama notwithstanding) by the case of Rich Strike.

Looking back now on the whole saga, I realize that enticing a Ky derby winner to run in wv wasn't QUITE the master-stroke I liked to imagine, but more likely a "get" made possible by the horse's deteriorated condition.

To be very clear, I'm not maintaining MTB was Whirlaway, or even that his pace and trip-aided shocker reflected any sustainable big-time form, only that he may well have been a better horse than subsequent performances showed.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by mountainman

was outkicked by a no-hope LS named Soul of the Matter.

Don't make Burt Bacharach spin in his grave! Soul of the Matter was an excellent horse (and a WV bred at that!), who was a mere 15 years older than Soul Warrior (the actual winner over Mine that Bird in the 2009 WV Derby). And yes I absolutely had to look up who the actual winner of that race was.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by SG4

Don't make Burt Bacharach spin in his grave! Soul of the Matter was an excellent horse (and a WV bred at that!), who was a mere 15 years older than Soul Warrior (the actual winner over Mine that Bird in the 2009 WV Derby). And yes I absolutely had to look up who the actual winner of that race was.

Yesssss..lol..brain freeze..remember Big Drama opening some huge lead under an idiotic ride geared to hide from a MTB kick that never materialized.

Double shame on me since I’ve been binging Burt Bacharach in the car lately..just something about that mellow late 60s vibe..(couldn’t believe the man, himself, considers “Alfie” his best composition…)