Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-13-2018, 10:17 PM   #1
letswastemoney
Registered User
 
letswastemoney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
Los Alamitos Derby discussion

First of all, I know the value in this race is non-existent. Who wants to discuss it anyway?

Draft Pick (3-1) - Decent horse won the Affirmed Stakes over Solomini. Maybe that is not quite such an accomplishment though? He likes to stalk, so he will need another horse to soften up Ax Man up front. His speed figures are kind of average, although there is room to move forward. Some things to like

Blended Citizen (9/5) - What happened in the Belmont Stakes? He just never tried in the second part. If he runs back to the Peter Pan effort, he can win in this spot. His best TimeformUS Speed Figure is a lot faster than Draft Pick (122, 109). Like Draft Pick though, he will need one of the other runners to soften up Ax Man. Maybe stablemate King Cause?

Ax Man (6/5) - Pace Projector believes he will hold an uncontested lead. Stamina is a question. This is a half to Indian Blessing, who stretched her speed as far as 1 1/16 miles when she won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, but really looked more comfortable sprinting. But maybe this field is soft enough that it will not matter. Sometimes horses with stamina issues go farther on an easy lead.

Once On Whiskey (6-1) - Stablemate of Ax Man. Is he here to play bodyguard for Ax Man? Just kidding. Anyways, his numbers resemble Draft Pick, and he only owns three starts at sprint distances, so this will be his first time going long. The dam raced 18 times, 16 of them in sprints. This is a hard read.

King Cause (20-1) - Sprinter. The Laz Barrera effort at seven furlongs is decent, despite finishing fifth. But he regressed speed-figure wise in the Affirmed, losing by 10 lengths. No chance to win.

Conclusion

Ax Man is a talented horse, and he can prove my doubts about his stamina wrong. But I'm leaning towards Draft Pick.

Last edited by letswastemoney; 07-13-2018 at 10:19 PM.
letswastemoney is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2018, 06:08 PM   #2
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Looks like a Belmont stakes race - 5 horses and no value!

Looks like no value in this one.
If the goes at 5-1 he might be a bet against the two name horses
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2018, 07:06 PM   #3
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,110
Toss the Belmont and Blended Citizen looks the best to me. Ax Man on a easy lead is scary. Not much else in the race.
jay68802 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2018, 07:27 PM   #4
letswastemoney
Registered User
 
letswastemoney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,207
I'll have to switch to Blended Citizen after seeing the tote board.
letswastemoney is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2018, 07:39 PM   #5
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Ahh, the old uncoupled longer odds one wins it.
Uh huh.
Yup.
Nothing to see here.
Nope.

btw, field was 100% garbage.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-14-2018, 08:03 PM   #6
RunForTheRoses
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 4,149
The King is dead! long live the King!
RunForTheRoses is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-17-2018, 07:55 PM   #7
delayjf
Registered User
 
delayjf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Norfolk VA
Posts: 6,246
Baffert strike again with an higher priced uncoupled entry.
delayjf is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:31 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.