Help! Brisnet Ultimate pp’s question

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

I saw your work on MikeSal's thread, Mr. Haney. No need to explain yourself--any horse player that ignores "value", is very likely not a winner.

Hi Greg,

Thank you very much. I don't get too bent out of shape if someone disagrees with my style, to each his own. Sometimes people mock what they don't understand, but with a 20% takeout if you are following the public you are destined to lose.
Just hoping to be able to help the people that want help, not all of them want or need help. Plus I just love the moniker "ProfessionalLotteryPlayer", I am still chuckling about that one, it was golden.

Best,

Matt

[mikesal57]

You guys talk about "value".....

But the horse still has to win....right?

In my threads , I look for races that the favorite can be vulnerable .......

So far I been lucky and some of the guys hit some nice price horses...

But it all starts with the PP's.....

About 10 years ago I was in Ted Cravens Forums and I was intrigued with Jim Bradshaw's The Match-Up......I rode it all the way because it was unique and taught us how a race is going to be won.....it wasnt based on value..it was who was going to win the race.

I recently left HSH because it kept focusing on the horse that everyone knew should be the favorite...it was completely opposite on the style of play that I liked and was good at.

My advice is to learn to read the PP's...read books ....gather all information and ideas and go your own route......

The alternative is follow someones ideas at a costly expense to you

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

You guys talk about "value".....

But the horse still has to win....right?

In my threads , I look for races that the favorite can be vulnerable .......

So far I been lucky and some of the guys hit some nice price horses...

But it all starts with the PP's.....

About 10 years ago I was in Ted Cravens Forums and I was intrigued with Jim Bradshaw's The Match-Up......I rode it all the way because it was unique and taught us how a race is going to be won.....it wasnt based on value..it was who was going to win the race.

I recently left HSH because it kept focusing on the horse that everyone knew should be the favorite...it was completely opposite on the style of play that I liked and was good at.

My advice is to learn to read the PP's...read books ....gather all information and ideas and go your own route......

The alternative is follow someones ideas at a costly expense to you

Hi Mike,

I am speaking of value in context of past performances, flawed favorite, pace set up, etc, etc. Generally the public puts to much emphasis on recent races, especially the last race. It is my belief that the ability to read and interpret the pps should be everyone's first goal. I suggest reading from the bottom pp up, its much easier to get a picture of where a horse has been and where a horse is going. Value is a concept to be applied after you have a fair degree of proficiency at handicapping in general.

.I rode it all the way because it was unique and taught us how a race is going to be won.....it wasnt based on value..it was who was going to win the race.

I believe that at least 50% of the time, maybe more, there is more than one horse with a 20% chance or better of winning any given race, I look for value on these horses, especially if I feel the favorite(s) are flawed. So I guess you could say my process doesn't begin with value, it ends there.

Best,

M

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hi Mike,

I am speaking of value in context of past performances, flawed favorite, pace set up, etc, etc. Generally the public puts to much emphasis on recent races, especially the last race. It is my belief that the ability to read and interpret the pps should be everyone's first goal. I suggest reading from the bottom pp up, its much easier to get a picture of where a horse has been and where a horse is going. Value is a concept to be applied after you have a fair degree of proficiency at handicapping in general.


I believe that at least 50% of the time, maybe more, there is more than one horse with a 20% chance or better of winning any given race, I look for value on these horses, especially if I feel the favorite(s) are flawed. So I guess you could say my process doesn't begin with value, it ends there.

Best,

M

Said like a true handicapper!!!

PERFECT!!!

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Onesome

I have to push back against this as it's the exact opposite of what one should do today.

Go to any casino, OTB and you'll see the same thing, people reading the form trying to find a winner. If you follow the same process as 95% of the bettors and end up with a horse that is 'value' on your oddsline. Who is wrong? My opinion is that there is information that isn't exactly clear on the PP's and that 'valuebet' is actually a 'sucker bet'.

I always use the analogy if I offered to sell you a Ferrari for 10 bucks your first response shouldn't be 'that's an awesome deal' but rather 'what's wrong with it'.

You are right...but not entirely, IMO. I see two types of "overlays" in this game; the legitimate overlay which goes off at higher odds than it should because of some handicapping "inadequacy" which the betting public overreacts to...and the ILLEGITIMATE overlay, which goes off at higher odds than it should even though its race record is FAULTLESS, and we can't find a reason which accounts for the overlaid odds. This illegitimate overlay is better known as "ice on the board", and it's the "sucker bet" that you are referencing above. But you are forgetting about the REAL overlays, whose higher odds we CAN account for...and which are well worth waiting for and pouncing on.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Hi Greg,

Thank you very much. I don't get too bent out of shape if someone disagrees with my style, to each his own. Sometimes people mock what they don't understand, but with a 20% takeout if you are following the public you are destined to lose.
Just hoping to be able to help the people that want help, not all of them want or need help. Plus I just love the moniker "ProfessionalLotteryPlayer", I am still chuckling about that one, it was golden.

Best,

Matt

Matt, I have enjoyed your posts and I admire your resiliency. The losing streaks that a 9% winning strike must invite have to be a lot longer than what a mere mortal could endure . I wonder if this is why you have adopted the back-wheeling exacta strategy to go along with the win-bet. But I also wonder if it isn't a better idea to filter out some horses instead of using the entire field on top in the back-wheeled exacta. This way, if you could eliminate half the field from the win end, you could double your exacta betting unit without increasing the cost of your entire wager.

Please don't view this as a any sort of criticism on my part. I have enjoyed your analysis here...and I hope you continue it for more races to come. It's just that I enjoy handicapping conversations...and we don't do much of that here anymore.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

You guys talk about "value".....

But the horse still has to win....right?

In my threads , I look for races that the favorite can be vulnerable .......

So far I been lucky and some of the guys hit some nice price horses...

But it all starts with the PP's.....

About 10 years ago I was in Ted Cravens Forums and I was intrigued with Jim Bradshaw's The Match-Up......I rode it all the way because it was unique and taught us how a race is going to be won.....it wasnt based on value..it was who was going to win the race.

I recently left HSH because it kept focusing on the horse that everyone knew should be the favorite...it was completely opposite on the style of play that I liked and was good at.

My advice is to learn to read the PP's...read books ....gather all information and ideas and go your own route......

The alternative is follow someones ideas at a costly expense to you

This is something that doesn't get talked about much...but it's of utmost importance, IMO. If our handicapping approach doesn't match our temperament and personality...then we are doomed right from the start.

[cj]

Originally Posted by cj

I'm going to add one more thing. Tools are great, and each person should figure out what fits his or her style. But that is a small part of the game. The vast majority of people are going to lose. It is a game that takes about 20% off the top. Overcoming that is not something many are going to do.

You can read all the chess books in the world, it won't make you a grandmaster. You gotta play the game with real money to get to the next level.

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This is something that doesn't get talked about much...but it's of utmost importance, IMO. If our handicapping approach doesn't match our temperament and personality...then we are doomed right from the start.

I actually meant what you are getting at though I didn't write it well. You must adopt something that fits you as a person to have a chance. Even then, it is hard as hell to win, but it is a start.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I actually meant what you are getting at though I didn't write it well. You must adopt something that fits you as a person to have a chance. Even then, it is hard as hell to win, but it is a start.

You wrote it fine...I just didn't see your post.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

This is something that doesn't get talked about much...but it's of utmost importance, IMO. If our handicapping approach doesn't match our temperament and personality...then we are doomed right from the start.

TRUE!!!

But you dont or cant find this out in a day or 2....

This software had 20 years behind it ....

I had it for 18 months...I reached the point of "what can this do for me" ?

[Speed Figure]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

TRUE!!!

But you dont or cant find this out in a day or 2....

This software had 20 years behind it ....

I had it for 18 months...I reached the point of "what can this do for me" ?

Isn’t HSH the most powerful software out there?

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Speed Figure

Isn’t HSH the most powerful software out there?

Yes....

in the eyes of the beholder ...or is it the developer

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Matt, I have enjoyed your posts and I admire your resiliency. The losing streaks that a 9% winning strike must invite have to be a lot longer than what a mere mortal could endure . I wonder if this is why you have adopted the back-wheeling exacta strategy to go along with the win-bet. But I also wonder if it isn't a better idea to filter out some horses instead of using the entire field on top in the back-wheeled exacta. This way, if you could eliminate half the field from the win end, you could double your exacta betting unit without increasing the cost of your entire wager.

Please don't view this as a any sort of criticism on my part. I have enjoyed your analysis here...and I hope you continue it for more races to come. It's just that I enjoy handicapping conversations...and we don't do much of that here anymore.

Hi Thaskalos,

I used to do exactly what you said and simply wheel the horses I had above the arc, but over time I noticed a trend, two trends actually when I am betting high priced horses (10-1 thru 25-1 range)

#1) Favorite wins/ my horse finishes second

and then theres the real reason I started doing this

#2) A lot of times when Im betting a long priced horse and I happen to be right, it means that the public has the race totally wrong and another longshot comes in on top of my horse. I think just this year before I adopted this strategy in April I missed two ~$1000 one dollar exactas. This seems to pay off for me better than a place bet.

Heres an example from May 25 CD10
052520CD10bet.JPG

In this race I liked the 9 horse at like 13-1 I believe and bet 20$ and an exacta reverse wheel. The #10 who I couldn't have possibly bet by any handicapping method that I know of happens to win the race @ about 40-1 if memory serves correct, keying an exacta that paid ~ $342.00 for 1$ which was better than Id have gotten on the win bet.

One ticket like that goes a long way in maintaining your bankroll during the inevitable long losing streaks you speak of. Believe me, Ive lost 50 races in a row before......which is devastating mentally, only to have it turn around by hitting an 80-1 shot and a 30-1 shot on the same day. If I stick to my methods, the winners will come and when the do for some reason they come in bunches.

Here's my last 30 days, I don't bet hand over fist and I average maybe 2-5 bets a day, but an doing OK
060320_30day.JPG

Anyway, hope this answers your question, its not for everybody but Ive found this method works for me.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Tom

BUT, the one factor I did find was the Avg Speed Column (Rcg Spd Avg) The winner was in the top 4 over 80% of the time.

Do you ever adjust a number in the column? I do it all the time, since that's one of the data points that I use in my Excel sheet. Bris derives that number from a horse's last 3 races, no matter if they were different surface types, radically different distances, or even if a horse had a troubled trip (checked hard, etc.)

One that will really throw the Avg. Speed column off is a layoff. If a horse that had consistently run speed figures in the 80s runs a 65 the third race back, lays off for 4 months, then comes back and runs two races back in the 80s, Bris still uses that 65 in the Rcg Spd Avg. For better or worse, I line out that 65 race and drop down to the 4th back to recalculate the RSA.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Matt, I have enjoyed your posts and I admire your resiliency. The losing streaks that a 9% winning strike must invite have to be a lot longer than what a mere mortal could endure . I wonder if this is why you have adopted the back-wheeling exacta strategy to go along with the win-bet. But I also wonder if it isn't a better idea to filter out some horses instead of using the entire field on top in the back-wheeled exacta. This way, if you could eliminate half the field from the win end, you could double your exacta betting unit without increasing the cost of your entire wager.

Please don't view this as a any sort of criticism on my part. I have enjoyed your analysis here...and I hope you continue it for more races to come. It's just that I enjoy handicapping conversations...and we don't do much of that here anymore.

I totally agree....

Everyday , I check "New Posts" hoping to find some sort of handicapping thread that I can join and maybe learn or contribute.....that search takes a minute at most..lol

If you ever want to start one up...I'm game
All aspects are open , handicapping , software , Excel..whatever....

Mike