Gun Runner vs. Songbird

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

American Pharoah won G1s at 8 different tracks.

Keenland
Monmouth
Belmont
Pimlico
Churchill
Oaklawn
Santa Anita
Del Mar

Thanks, SC. I was pondering some horses and didn't even think of him.

Rachel - 5
Blind Luck - 5
Zenyatta - 4
Serena's Song - 4
Royal Delta - 4
Ruffian - 4
Inside Information - 3
Rags to Riches - 3
Havre de Grace - 3
Sky Beauty - 2
Beholder - 2

If we add in Rachel's G2 wins, she won at 8 different tracks. Adding Ruffian's G3 wins, and she won at 7 different tracks.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Cigar won at 7 tracks if you count Dubai.

Sunday Silence, Skip Away, Chief's Crown, High Chapparal, Point Given, and Bayakoa won at 6 tracks.

Thanks, Spalding. I'd count Dubai. Nice list. Adored Cigar, and came around to loving Skip Away too. PG just never did it for me. I liked Bayakoa, but liked Paseana better when ranking SA mares.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Beyond the speed figures, I think there is evidence that Sky Beauty ran to par in the '93 Distaff. Like Songbird, she too could be said to have been "overrated" based on overall record. In reality, she was beating the same old tired horses (i.e. Future Pretense, In Her Glory, Silky Feather) for the better part of the season.

I agree that both Sky Beauty and Songbird ran in some soft spots, but I don't think that automatically indicates that a horse is not great. It's not the fault of the horse if no one shows up, a specific crop happens to be weak, or if the connections don't go looking around for the greatest challenge every time.

I think most of these horses eventually do get tested a few times. That's when you find out what has been in the tank all along.

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I agree that both Sky Beauty and Songbird ran in some soft spots, but I don't think that automatically indicates that a horse is not great. It's not the fault of the horse if no one shows up, a specific crop happens to be weak, or if the connections don't go looking around for the greatest challenge every time.

I think most of these horses eventually do get tested a few times. That's when you find out what has been in the tank all along.

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)

ask anyone who was associated with the horse, she did not ship well those two breeders cup, especially the KY one, and was not doing well going into the race. If the race had been in NY I have no doubt she would have been in the race with Hollywood Wildcat and One Dreamer.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

ask anyone who was associated with the horse, she did not ship well those two breeders cup, especially the KY one, and was not doing well going into the race. If the race had been in NY I have no doubt she would have been in the race with Hollywood Wildcat and One Dreamer.

Isn't the point that she didn't ship well part of the overall assessment of her? It's a strength of a horse that it can mentally and physically withstand shipping and not have to carry its track with them. It's a weakness of a horse when the opposite is true.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

For Songbird, I think running Beholder to a nose on a track that played just fine to the outside where Beholder was placed after shaking loose from 2 quality stalkers that tired badly chasing her revealed that a lot of those very handy wins against weaker in slowish times were not an indication that she was overrated. They were an indication that she had plenty in the tank and was only one jump away from beating a sensational and more seasoned older mare with a Grade 1 win over males.

While I wouldn't go so far as to say her BC effort validated any of her slower performances last year or was evidence of holding something in reserve all along, based on the speed figure and the resolve displayed versus Beholder I felt that she had the potential to move up numbers-wise at 4 (as Sky Beauty did) and more than likely silence the concerns about her overall ability.

After two starts so far this year, that hasn't happened, but there are extenuating circumstances (layoff, shipping cross country, physical issues) that may be delaying any "maturity". But considering her record (nearly unbeaten), she doesn't appear to be one that needs to race to reach top form. Maybe she is simply a high 90 BSF horse and that's that.

But for the Pacific Classic, Beholder was pretty much a "slow" horse, too, but her vast number of accomplishments assure her place in history.

I fully understand your case against Sky Beauty. You could easily be right. But her record subsequent to that failed first BC event was so darn good (until she shipped again), that I think it's less certain than you are implying. Jerkens was notorious for not wanting to ship and a LOT of eastern based horses used to run poorly in CA back in those days even before synthetics. The Shug horse also may not have run her best (in fact I think I bet her along with another NY based horse that did not do well in another dirt race)

The thing that to me contradicts the whole "she can't ship" deal is that Jerkens ducked 3 Grade 1s (Gazelle, Ruffian, Beldame) at Belmont leading up to the BC. Had she run in either the Ruffian or the Beldame--and won--she probably would have clenched the 3yo Eclipse (especially if she beat older champ Paseana who laid an egg in the Ruffian) AND given Jerkens enough ammo to perhaps talk the owner out of shipping to SA for the BC.

Seems curious that they chose a soft prep and the dreaded cross-country ship instead of racking up the accolades in NY (much like Mineshaft did 10 years later). It's also very convenient that her connections chose the Rare Perfume as her prep-race given that her speed figures hit a ceiling while those of fellow 3yos Hollywood Wildcat and Dispute (who ran more than Sky Beauty that year) were on the rise in the fall. Both were able to make the all-important jump of facing older horses with success.

Given that, which was clear to infer on past performances alone, there was nothing shocking whatsoever about her modest 5th in the BC Distaff.

As for the '94 Distaff, that was an obvious meltdown and line can be drawn through it. Given how terrible she looked in the stretch, I'd chalk it up to physical issues (soundness or bleeding), not some aversion to shipping.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

Thanks, SC. I was pondering some horses and didn't even think of him.

Rachel - 5
Blind Luck - 5
Zenyatta - 4
Serena's Song - 4
Royal Delta - 4
Ruffian - 4
Inside Information - 3
Rags to Riches - 3
Havre de Grace - 3
Sky Beauty - 2
Beholder - 2

If we add in Rachel's G2 wins, she won at 8 different tracks. Adding Ruffian's G3 wins, and she won at 7 different tracks.

Ruffian was really a New York phenomenon, and that sort of thing is quite misleading.

You want to look for east and west, especially prior to Polytrack being invented. California tracks were a LOT different than eastern tracks, and many eastern stars came out here and stunk up the joint, like Kelso and Seattle Slew. Same thing shipping west to east, where Noor and Lava Man and Cutlass Reality stunk.

Winning a bunch of races all on eastern tracks is really not a big accomplishment. Shipping coast-to-coast is (and Dubai, of course, is even bigger).

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

You want to look for east and west, especially prior to Polytrack being invented. California tracks were a LOT different than eastern tracks, and many eastern stars came out here and stunk up the joint, like Kelso and Seattle Slew. Same thing shipping west to east, where Noor and Lava Man and Cutlass Reality stunk.

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

Great post as usual but I'm still trying to get over him basically poo pooing Ruffian.

[dilanesp]

Gulch didn't like the West Coast. Neither did Groovy. Turkoman was OK here but not a superstar. (Similarly you are dead wrong about Cutlass Reality, who was a giant killer here and ordinary in Chicago and Louisville, and merely good in New York.)

Hill Prince wasn't as good out here either. He crushed Noor in NY and got crushed here.


Equipoise didn't like it out here either. Nor did Twenty Grand.

Game on Dude didn't run well outside California.

I never said horses didn't ship. I said shipping coast to coast is a real test, whereas shipping from New York to Monmouth, as Ruffian did, isn't.

And yeah, Ruffian was overrated. Zenyatta is far far better.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

And yeah, Ruffian was overrated. Zenyatta is far far better.

I realize your whole thing is west coast is better and posting silly things to get a reaction, but I'd like to see a reasonable argument on why you think this to be.

How can a filly who was 10 for 10 before breaking down in July of her 3 year old year be overrated? Did she not run fast enough in her races?

[classhandicapper]

While I wouldn't go so far as to say her BC effort validated any of her slower performances last year or was evidence of holding something in reserve all along, based on the speed figure and the resolve displayed versus Beholder I felt that she had the potential to move up numbers-wise at 4 (as Sky Beauty did) and more than likely silence the concerns about her overall ability.

After two starts so far this year, that hasn't happened, but there are extenuating circumstances (layoff, shipping cross country, physical issues) that may be delaying any "maturity". But considering her record (nearly unbeaten), she doesn't appear to be one that needs to race to reach top form. Maybe she is simply a high 90 BSF horse and that's that.

I've been arguing that a lot of fillies mature earlier than the male counterparts and we know that a lot of fillies don't make the turn from one year to the next very well. She may be one of them. I'm willing to give her one more start this year before concluding anything because this last race was at 10F and she may not want to go that far.

But for the Pacific Classic, Beholder was pretty much a "slow" horse, too, but her vast number of accomplishments assure her place in history.

This is where I disagree with a lot of people.

Most horses (especially very fast speed horses) run figures that approximate their level of ability most of the time. Horses that win handily or that close and look look like they had a lot in reserve after the wire typically do so because they got a great trip or ran among much weaker. So when they get tested under tougher circumstances they actually wind up running slower instead of faster.

However, some horses actually do have more in the tank and haven't run faster because the demands of the races have not required it. Races aren't time trials. Horses use each other as prompters. They get in position to win and then only do serious running when required. Sometimes that will not maximize their final time. We see this to an extreme in turf racing, but it happens sometimes on dirt also among great horses and very lightly raced horses.

That's why people throw around the word "test".

The "test" determines whether you are category 1 (most horses) or category 2 (a horse with a little more in the tank than the speed figures indicate).

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Gulch didn't like the West Coast.

Yeah, he only won 2 sprints there in 1:08 flat for 6f and a 6.5f stakes in 1:15 flat to go along with two placings in G1s (one to the aforementioned Cutlass Reality). What a disappointment.

Neither did Groovy.

Won the Ancient Title in 1:08 1/5 in his CA debut then 4th in the BC 2 weeks later as a 3yo. Why did they even bother to ship?

(Similarly you are dead wrong about Cutlass Reality, who was a giant killer here and ordinary in Chicago and Louisville, and merely good in New York.)

Nice cover up. You said he went from West to East and failed. No, he was a career long East coaster who found a new lease on life in CA. I wasn't saying he handled both coasts equally, just correcting your blunder.

By the way, his "east coast" efforts in 1988 were a second in the Hawthorne Gold Cup to stalwart Cryptoclearance and the BC Classic won by Alysheba in the mud.

Hill Prince wasn't as good out here either. He crushed Noor in NY and got crushed here.

I never mentioned Hill Prince, but he won his CA debuted easily then got beat in the mud in the Santa Anita Handicap. He was retired 2 days after that race with a leg injury. I'm sure his physical issue had nothing to do with his performance.

Equipoise didn't like it out here either.

Equipoise? Did they even have tracks in CA at the time (the 1930s)?

Of course, Equipoise actually came to CA for the Big Cap, which was touted as the "greatest field" ever assembled. He ran second and then won his two preps but was disqualified in the latter. He then bowed a tendon in the Big Cap itself which was scheduled to be his final start anyways.

Nor did Twenty Grand.

Talk about clutching straws. Twenty Grand was retired before Santa Anita even opened. However, he proved infertile so they put him back in training. He returned to the races over 2 years after his previous race. He ended up the winner of the aforementioned prep in which Equipoise was DQ'd.

Game on Dude didn't run well outside California.

If that's true its probably Kettle Corn and Clubhouse Ride refused to get on the plane with him and he was forced to race against other horses.

Of course, Game on Dude won the Lone Star Derby and Charles Town Classic outside CA and was a decent 4th in the Belmont Stakes in only his 6th career start.

I never said horses didn't ship. I said shipping coast to coast is a real test, whereas shipping from New York to Monmouth, as Ruffian did, isn't.

You made it sound as though winning on both coasts was some sort of rarity, citing only Kelso and Seattle Slew as evidence and failing to mention a single success. I simply fleshed it out.

[Tom]

Through 13 races her record is historically great (cant see how that is arguable) but I dont see real professionals putting her in a class like that.

Aside form the BC, I think she was very much average.
She beat a lot of inferior horses early in her races and came home slow. That is Finger Lakes great.

Anxious to see what her TF fig was last time, to put her in better focus. But I'm not scouring the entries to where she goes next.

Actually same goes for Gun Runner. Nice couple, but no Chick and Di.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by Tom

Aside form the BC, I think she was very much average.
She beat a lot of inferior horses early in her races and came home slow. That is Finger Lakes great.

Anxious to see what her TF fig was last time, to put her in better focus. But I'm not scouring the entries to where she goes next.

Actually same goes for Gun Runner. Nice couple, but no Chick and Di.

I think it was 121 Tom