Saratoga 2017

[Panamaslim94]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Hey Slim

Lot's of ways to enjoy this game.

based on what I've read in this thread, here goes:

1. First and foremost be a fan and a spectator. Sink your teeth into the meat and potatoes of the races. Handicap the races. Go on the NYRA website (and/or app), and check in about an hour early to follow along with the handicapping show. Get into the sport itself and have fun with it.

2. When you are just messing around, and want some action on a race where nothing really jumps out at you: ≤$24 on a Trifecta or Pick-3.

3. Be patient, and when you are following along with the sport, and see something really special: $50-$100 Win, or your usual wager style.


Would love to hear some of those stories!

You may like this one,


Was betting meadows harness 1 night. Played consecutive numbers. 123 234 345 456 567 678 876 765 654 543 432 321.

Somehow, my fat fingers pressed 875. 876 came in, no one hit the tri!

That's my degenerate side. I admit, I have that side but it rarely comes out!

You guys have me thinking. A lot. Too much! Glad I asked though.

Bankroll is smaller this year. Just couldn't sock away like I wanted too. 8 days away though, can't wait!

[biggestal99]

Three little words.

Horses for courses.

If there was ever a track this axiom was for, Saratoga is the one.

Restrict plays to horses that have won at Saratoga before.

You will not be disappointed.

Allan

[Tom]

Gus wrote:
Forget what people say about what track is "best", and what track is "worst".

Great post!
Bottom line is, 2-1 pays the same at Saratoga as it does at Finger Lakes. The same grabbers and herders you cursed downstate will be grabbing and herding upstate. All horses poop, but you are more likely to step in some at Toga.

Don't over-think it - just play it and have fun.

[PIC6SIX]

Forget handicapping, your method or methods will come to you in time. However, Learn how to bet. By that I mean which POOL gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money. A smart bettor will always dominate a good handicapper.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PIC6SIX

Forget handicapping, your method or methods will come to you in time. However, Learn how to bet. By that I mean which POOL gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money. A smart bettor will always dominate a good handicapper.

There is no way to determine "which pool gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money"...unless you are a very good handicapper. It's the smart HANDICAPPING that unearths the "smart bets".

[PIC6SIX]

Excuse me Sir, I stand corrected. Based on your advice I will now focus on learning how to handicap and bet to SHOW and make mucho dinero.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

There is no way to determine "which pool gives you the best chance to cash and the best return on your money"...unless you are a very good handicapper. It's the smart HANDICAPPING that unearths the "smart bets".

So when is your book coming out with the "all new cliches" about horse racing, poker, sports betting, gambling, etc, etc.....??

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Panamaslim94

Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks

I will give you 2 truths.

1. Over 98% of people that play horses on a regular basis lose money.

2. The game is getting harder and harder as tracks continue to fall by the wayside and field sizes continue to restrict and online wagering of conglomerates dwindles payouts.

The game has never been harder, and it will only continue to get more difficult.

Now, knowing those 2 truths, do you have any questions?

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Panamaslim94

Long time horseplayer, since I saw Zenyatta in person at Oaklawn but long sufferer at the windows.

Love the game.Have had ups and downs. Love the Spa as I take month long vacation in August but admittedly I run out of cash before the vacation ends.

Here to seek some advice of the resident handicappers. Without giving away your secrets to being successful at this game, what are 2 things I can start doing and 2 things to never do????

I'm tired of not enjoying a game I love ! Not a super tech savvy guy so not looking for quick computer answers. Looking for wisdom.

In return I'm good for a story or two...

Thanks

You need to start by handicapping yourself. If you bet with an ADW that can give you the reports(such as Twinspires), simply run a simple report on each type of bet, win, place, show, exactas, trifectas................Where are you. If you are losing in the 0 to 10% range overall, you are like most of us, smarter than the average bear, but you will need rebates and more discipline to turn the corner. If your losses are in the -15% and above rate overall, you need to drastically change what you are doing. Now you also have to understand that these reports have to be taken with a grain of salt. The nature of superexotics is that they wil have a terrible roi until you start hitting some hopefully nice ones. Lose $32 here, $48 there and the next thing you know you are -85% roi on a $1000 bet. Doesn't mean a whole lot, since they are all low probability bets and they take a long while to get in the long run.

If you are betting only on track you need to keep track of every bet you make. You need to know how much and what % on the dollar you are winning or losing on every type of bet. Without this knowledge how do you know where your strengths and weaknesses are. You may kill it with your win betting, but donate 3 times as much with trifectas. No data, no clue.

Now I have played very little Saratoga but my understanding is they have big competitive fields similar to what Del Mar used to have(not sure if that will be the case for either this year). The nature of this type of racing is that if you don't make a line there is a lot of tempting prices up on the board. I hear the talking heads from track to track saying what a great betting board it is because 6 horses are between 4-1 and 9-1. Nope, that isn't a great betting board, that is a wide open race. Now it would be a great board if you have a strong opinion on 1 or 2 horses, but that is the exception not the rule.

The point is that your adrenaline starts flowing and you cannot contain your excitement about all this great "value" you are jumping all over. Truth be told if you took the time to actually line the race prior, you will find out that much of this "value" really isn't even there. Just competivie fields offering what appear to be attractive prices on attractive looking horses. It isn't until you actually take the effort to line races that you realize that the field is so competitive that your strong A is only worthy of 3-1 and this top contender only 9/2. The nature of the racing is completely different than the parades of 6 and 7 horse fields we get used to all year long. This make even bets like exactas and daily doubles a lot tougher to hit. The reward is that if we are properly equipped the ability to find value is a lot better, but a lot of times horse players will find themselve betting too much, as they are accustomed to much higher probability bets all year long in all pools. Your runouts in this type of racing can be lengthy.

Which brings me to my next point. If you struggle with racing, line races. Not at 107% lines or 109% lines but at 100% lines. Even if rating horses 30-1 or 50-1 or 12-1 is a completely mystery to you, learn how to do it. Everything I do in racing brings me back full circle to lining races. I want to take on more tracks and more carryovers and I stop lining races, I lose my bearings, and utlimately I realize, I have to go back to lining races. Moreover, if you really want to grown and I don't even do this, but you need to post analyze races. Why was your 6-1 cruising home at 8/5, why was your 30-1 bet down to 8-1, why was your 4-1 at 12-1 etc. Were you right, were you wrong........ Keep recrords. How much value do you need, 50% above, double......With so many betting choices, we can make a really simple game really complex, but ultimately it comes down to value. You have to identify it and you have to limit your bets to those horses. Obviously in a pick 5 or super high 5 you can't exclude overbet favorites or you will never hit one, but somewhere in the bet has to be some legitimate value horses or your payoffs will never amount to enough to cover all your losing wagers over time.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

I will give you 2 truths.

1. Over 98% of people that play horses on a regular basis lose money.

2. The game is getting harder and harder as tracks continue to fall by the wayside and field sizes continue to restrict and online wagering of conglomerates dwindles payouts.

The game has never been harder, and it will only continue to get more difficult.

Now, knowing those 2 truths, do you have any questions?

For me the game has gotten easier since the advent of exchange wagering.

Whales knocking down a horses odds and me being forced to take it.

No longer, I lock in my odds (both play and lay) and sit back knowing what kind of return I will be getting if the result I want comes in.

When you almost always get a better price than the pm pools it's great.

Even in short fields you get a top quality price.

Allan

[Panamaslim94]

feel guilty for working OT this weekend and hitting the treadmill. Trying to lose some weight and get some extra money for August. I appreciate all the intelligent advice.

I will commit myself to just betting saratoga this meet. No delmar, no Ellis, no gulfstream, no california fairs. Why? Because I realize I am an action junkie and I blow too much money on action. Time to stick to a plan and do a better job.

I do bet via Twin Spires and I will look at what I do good in and what I am poor with. I also use 2 other betting sites and will check there.

You guys are awesome and I can't thank you enough.

If you don't mind as the meet runs, I will check in with some picks and questions to keep learning from everyone

[Panamaslim94]

I know im breaking my own rules but found what i think maybe my first winner at del mar 4th race #2 SLIM fit,

thoughts on this runner?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Saratoga, the greatest race meeting in North America has everything a horseplayer would want, full fields, better horses , the best trainers, the best jockeys the best attendance at a beautiful track.

That being said BEWARE!! This meeting will test the discipline of even the most disciplined players, myself included. I find that I force more wagers at this meeting then any other. Every year I must work at monitoring my wagers to avoid playing the fringe selections that ruin the bottom line.

The things you should do for this meeting is QUALITY not quantity. Be very selective of your key plays and be certain you never make a bad percentage play, this is crucial. Your selection must possess value and a significant edge that can be validated so you end up in a scenario after the race that even if the bet was a losing one you would make the same bet again because it was a percentage advantage situation worth an investment of risk capital

No guesses, hunches or maybe's at this meeting. Yes it is tempting to get involved with these types of tease bets, but the game is too hard and you must avoid the fringe wagers and concentrate on your strengths, whatever they might be.

Myself, I am a win bettor with the occasional double or exacta box for the purpose of increasing the wagers R.O.I. and not to save a bet, to me that can involve in negative handicapping. You wager to win, not wager to not lose. this is how I think though I am sure smart players have found way and methods to protect their wagers.

Remember this winning money is not very hard, it's holding on to the winnings that is terribly difficult for the majority of players. Keep your bets at the same level for the most part meaning the same amount at 10/1 as opposed to 3/1. Be very aware of the lure of the exotics as you begin to see the massive payoffs through out the meeting. If you are going to get involved with these P4 P5 superfectas etc, keep the investment risk very low simply because these are low percentage transactions
worthy of making a huge score when you have a very solid key horse or two in the sequence so the percentages favor the investment.

Be wary of playing Saratoga on off tracks as it is a variable that changes the structures of the races and offers more freakish results thorough out the years. if you do get involved be very selective and, as always insist of top value.

Saratoga is a beautiful meeting to enjoy by betting smart and sticking to the percentages. I would suggest keeping a book of 'Whys', what I like to call a truth log. it is a book that you have to write down all wagers and the reasons you made the bet. it will prevent you from making chance, guesses, hunches or maybe's. it works.

Maintain a brutal honesty about your strengths and weaknesses, this is very important as you must keep your focus on playing the best game you can play. Above all have fun and enjoy the meeting it will be fun and hopefully profitable for you if you make a plan ahead and stick to your plan to the exclusion of all else.

Good Luck!!

I rarely bust this one out so bravo! Great post brother. I could not have thought it or wrote it any better. All the same things I tell myself before this meet. Good luck as well!

[lamboguy]

i like playing off the turf races because everyone wants to run at Saratoga and horses that are not dirt horses often remain in the body of the race and rarely run good.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Cincy,

Thanks, we think alike. In my opinion the way to win money at this great meeting is to be very selective in your wagering waiting for the right spot to beat a race, and the fact is that some times you wait for a whole day and not find a suitable spot. I am rewarded greatly when I select a winner at Saratoga as I am getting great value 8/1 on a horse that would be 5/1 downstate at Belmont. That's what the game is all about value, and there is plenty of value at the Spa...but we must beware of the numerous traps this meet presents to even the most disciplined players. Good Luck Cincy hoping you have a sensational meeting!