NYRA- The Best Circuit to Play, Everyday

[johnhannibalsmith]

R 10:

Missy's Storm stretches out from a good effort at the level going seven-eighths in her second back off a nearly six month break. You need only go back a couple of races to the AQU fall meet to find a decent turf race at a mile in which she hung in contention late but faded to fourth against maiden allowance breeds. Bear in mind, that's a two-year-old race, so improvement and development from that effort isn't unlikely.

Obviously this isn't a maiden that you are going to love, but this is another pretty suspect-looking bunch of maidens. Looking for some sign of life at double-digits and this filly just seems likely to be overlooked for a few with marginally sexier form.

[Mulerider]

Good call, JHS!

Mule

[johnhannibalsmith]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Good call, JHS!

Mule

Thanks. Price got bombed as she took a little money prior to the late scratch of nine and then broke a little flat-footed and had me cussing. Still, Hector Diaz worked out a perfect inside trip, never got antsy, never got in her way, moved inside of horses where there was room and found the best route out and to the lead. Really, the ride will get overlooked, but it was all you can ask for as an owner, trainer, or bettor.

2 Missy's Storm Diaz, Jr. H R $13.00 $5.10 $3.80

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

Thanks. Price got bombed as she took a little money prior to the late scratch of nine and then broke a little flat-footed and had me cussing. Still, Hector Diaz worked out a perfect inside trip, never got antsy, never got in her way, moved inside of horses where there was room and found the best route out and to the lead. Really, the ride will get overlooked, but it was all you can ask for as an owner, trainer, or bettor.

2 Missy's Storm Diaz, Jr. H R $13.00 $5.10 $3.80

Nice job. I had 20 to win. Can't believe Diaz held off saez. Maybe it was the weight. So bummed the odds went down after the scratch

[NorCalGreg]

SARATOGA 7/27

1ST DIPLOMAT 12-1
8TH ROCKY POLICY 12-1

Good luck

-NCG

[PhantomOnTour]

Race 1 - Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase Gr1

like to dabble in these races sometimes...like the Schoodic who should be able to close into a good pace today
ML 8-1 is more than good enough

ex w
ex w
win

[Aerocraft67]

I came here to tout the Swagger Jagger in Race 6 as today's best bet, but looks like I picked the wise guy horse. Meanwhile, the looks more formidable the more I look at him, and the other Maker entry seems nearly as favorable, and may wind up a better deal than the somewhat dear 9/2 third ML choice.

My initial thinking:
Swagger Jagger faced tougher in 2017 allowance debut to earn its best fig that can win this, at this distance. Drops in with these high claimers second off the layoff in 19 days, all highly favorable Maker moves. Tactical speed from good inside post. Chad Brown’s first gelding Ray’s the Bar threatens with similar style and up-and-down class drop, but I’m against him and the money he’ll take without having posted a top fig with these, along with his tossable coupled entry, and the "good" turf doesn't help this particular British animal. On the front, Mighty Mo threatens as formidable allowance-to-clam drop from Bill Mott, likely favorite by post time. The other Maker entry Taste for Talent has upside facing tougher sooner in his career and will keep honest, but seems a bit dear as third choice. Graham Motion doesn't have the allowance-to-claim record matching these other top trainers, but gets his jock and pace for the Tusk to close into with the best late kick, just don't see as favorable a proposition on this one.

---

[Aerocraft67]

Thoughts on Race 9. The TFUS seem really volatile on these, with big spreads between class and speed figs.

Good won last and Saratoga record for trainer, but not allowance to stakes step. Win was modest and hasn't returned to the Pletcher form in March; others more likely but might hit board
Won't get the lead he needs
Huge trainer angles but can't get the lead or even track well in this one without an aggressive ride—bet against
Anything to recommend this one? I don't see it. Running poorly in this class and trainer ships to Saratoga fruitlessly
Can win from the tracking position he'll get. Made a career of crushing hapless rivals at Finger Lakes but lost last at 1/9, but trainer ships well to classier tracks. Hard not to like as a longshot.
Legit big 121 TFUS fig can win this, but losing by a length consistently. Trainer has poor record jumping from allowance to sakes and at Saratoga generally, although good record with stakes generally. I like this closer underneath.
Another legit speed fig for this one, trainer does will with 3 year olds at Saratoga. Best tracking pick if you can get past the recent vet scratch
Linda Rice angles, route to sprint in particular, top closer. Class seems a little dressed up and may just be too far back in this big field.
Knows how to win but too slow, needs another race for Nevin.
Too slow.

The is logical here. I'm all over it at the ML price. Maybe dutch it with the at a price, and throw in and as exacta companions.

[Aerocraft67]

All that data and forgot to look at the weather. Very discouraging. NYRA changes page still doesn't show off the turf, finally dawned on me with Talking Horses in the background. WTF? Anyway, ignore my posts. As if you'd read them anyway.

[ReplayRandall]

Live plays for Thursday, July 27th at Saratoga:

SAR-R2- Annapolis Class (KY) 12-1 R Santana, Jr. - H DePaz

SAR-R3- Factoring (KY) 10-1 J Bravo - A W Dutrow

SAR-R4- Swift One (KY) 6-1 A S Arroyo - C J Englehart

SAR-R6- Acoustic (KY) 15-1 P Lopez - R R Rodriguez

SAR-R8- Seeking Paradise (KY) 8-1 L Saez - J Sharp

SAR-R9- Eye Luv Lulu (NY) 15-1 I Ortiz, Jr. - R R Rodriguez

SAR-10- Tiz a Kitten (NY) 8-1 J L Ortiz - M J Maker

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

Thoughts on Race 9. The TFUS seem really volatile on these, with big spreads between class and speed figs.
...

The is logical here. I'm all over it at the ML price. Maybe dutch it with the at a price, and throw in and as exacta companions.

Not sure how "good" the track will be and how much I want to change my view accordingly, but I'm inclined to upgrade the and . Unfortunately, so will everyone else. The seems even less trustworthy off that last poor effort in the slop, but has done O.K. wet before. The will run his race wet and poses greater threat but still faces a tough trip at short price. The seems a bit less likely to run well, not to mention win. The will fare better but still not enough to win, maybe hits the board. Still tossing , and now .

to win as third or more public choice
+:10 exacta depending on how low short the goes

Might play around with ,,, if I need a price. Maybe that last race dirties up the for a score? Or is it becoming less tolerant of mud as it ages?

[Robert Fischer]

r3 = I feel like the 1 is being 'sold' to the public.

give me 56 in doubles

////////
=guessed wrong. 1 quit, but 3 was much the best. Geroux had a chance to impede the 3, and instead ran a really clean race, but I think he was as surprised as everyone else when the 5 hung, after a dream setup.

[Robert Fischer]

6 days in , and I've lost four photos/wire finishes.

Had a couple selections that were lucky to win as well (races falling apart etc).

[johnhannibalsmith]

R5:

Getting bored watching races, think I'll take a shot with a 20-1 FTS in Lyrical Tale. Well-bred in general and for an off-track, there are some nice works amidst plenty of works. Price is right.

[Aerocraft67]

Why not the longest shot on the board for race 7? The wheels back from Laurel in 5 days, nice angle for the trainer. Popped a nice figure last time he ran on slop, at this 9f. Best closer. Few horses in his way. I'm in for win/place at 10/1. Maybe throw the in an exacta.