Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


View Poll Results: Gun Runner vs Songbird
Gun Runner 33 82.50%
Songbird 7 17.50%
Voters: 40. Non-members may not vote on this poll

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 07-21-2017, 03:47 PM   #76
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 2,376
Another example of why you should never debate Spalding...
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-24-2017, 10:32 AM   #77
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 12,875
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.

In fact, when NY based horses were running poorly in the BC synthetic era I remember some people making the case that a few big stars ran poorly out there before the synthetic era. So it was hard to pin down how much was synthetic and how much was the more supposedly difficult east to west ship.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson

Last edited by classhandicapper; 07-24-2017 at 10:35 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-24-2017, 11:00 AM   #78
Spalding No!
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 1,609
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.
This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.
Spalding No! is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-24-2017, 07:59 PM   #79
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 12,875
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.

Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.
__________________
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned." Fast Eddie Felson
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-25-2017, 11:45 AM   #80
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 38,832
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.
In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-25-2017, 07:17 PM   #81
Fager Fan
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,404
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.
I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.
Fager Fan is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 07-25-2017, 07:36 PM   #82
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 38,832
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan View Post
I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.
I don't think that is the opposite, I think it is a different thing altogether.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old Yesterday, 10:42 AM   #83
SharpCat
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 496
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.
Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.
SharpCat is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old Yesterday, 10:49 AM   #84
Dahoss9698
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,961
Quote:
Originally Posted by SharpCat View Post
Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.
Or any turf route.
Dahoss9698 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old Yesterday, 10:26 PM   #85
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 975
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahoss9698 View Post
Or any turf route.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old Yesterday, 11:28 PM   #86
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 38,832
Quote:
Originally Posted by SharpCat View Post
Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.
No doubt, jockeys are probably the biggest reason, and the trainers that give them instructions.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Will Monmouth Park still be racing in 2025?
Yes - 41.41%
41 Votes
No - 58.59%
58 Votes
Total Votes: 99
Non-members may not vote on this poll.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:39 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2017 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.