Gun Runner vs. Songbird

[castaway01]

Another example of why you should never debate Spalding...

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This is a bit of selective memory here. Firstly, Cutlass Reality was originally an East Coast horse. He ran in Grade 1s there at 2,3,4, and 5 before coming out west. In fact, he never ran on the East Coast again after relocated to CA. He only shipped to Churchill and Hawthorne in that time span.

Seattle Slew got all of 3 weeks rest between completing the Triple Crown and running the Swaps.

Affirmed had no problems East or West. Nor Ancient Title. Nor Autobiography. Nor Bold Forbes. Nor Chris Evert. Nor Cougar II. Nor Exceller. Nor J.O. Tobin. Nor My Juliet. Nor Spectacular Bid. Nor Susan's Girl. Nor Typecast. Nor Alysheba. Nor Bates Motel. Nor Blushing John. Nor Bold'n Determined. Nor Chief's Crown. Nor Dave's Friend. Nor Eillo. Nor Family Style. Nor Glorious Song. Nor Groovy. Nor Gulch. Nor Precisionist. Nor Heartlight No. One. Nor Princess Rooney. Nor Lady's Secret. Nor John Henry. Nor Lemhi Gold. Nor Life's Magic. Nor Lakeway. Nor Sacahuista. Nor Smile. Nor Turkoman. Nor A.P. Indy. Nor Ajina. Nor Artax. Nor Bayakoa. Nor Bertrando. Nor Countess Diana. Nor Favorite Trick. Nor Cigar. Nor Skip Away. Nor Criminal Type. Nor In Excess. Nor Pleasant Tap. Nor Festin. Nor Ibero. Nor Escena. Nor Hidden Lake. Nor Sharp Cat. Nor Timber Country. Nor Point Given. Nor Serena's Song. Nor Silverbulletday. Nor Thunder Gulch. Nor Sultry Song. Nor Tiznow. Nor Medaglia D'Oro. Nor Aldebaran. Nor Azeri. Nor Riboletta. Nor Surfside. Nor Tempera. Nor Squirtle Squirt. Nor Swept Overboard. Nor Pico Central. Nor Wild Rush. Nor You and I. Nor Broad Brush. Nor Concern. Nor River Keen. Nor Gentlemen. Nor Farma Way. Nor Real Quiet. etc.

I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.

In fact, when NY based horses were running poorly in the BC synthetic era I remember some people making the case that a few big stars ran poorly out there before the synthetic era. So it was hard to pin down how much was synthetic and how much was the more supposedly difficult east to west ship.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't have the data on it, but I think it might be worth looking at the record of NY based dirt horses running in the BC before the synthetic era. Coming in and running off the plane is different than a trainer moving a horse west where it has a chance to acclimate or when it's shipped back and forth.

This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

This would be difficult to do because as you said, there's a big difference between running "off the plane" and getting there well in advance of the race. In fact, it's debatable whether one is more ideal than the other (though superficially, one might think its the latter). Even if we had the bare-bone stats on the shippers, we probably wouldn't know which horses were there early and which ones shipped-in only a couple of days before the race.

Personally, unless the acclimation period is months ahead of the game (e.g., Curlin and Chrome in Dubai), I would think that running off the plane is the best approach. Allowing a horse to "acclimate" to a new surface is risky unless it is done gradually. However, in our case, these horses are at the same time actively targeting a specific race so the trainer can't really "back off" to let the horse adjust slowly. Who can forget the air that was let out of the 1997 BC when early arrivals--and morning line favorites-- Singspiel (breezing on the grass) and Formal Gold (routine gallop) both broke down while training at Hollywood Park?

Additionally, horses are at risk for illnesses related to shipping and getting there early only lends more time for bugs to incubate and manifest into a problem before the race.

Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Based on gambling experience in high quality races (no hard data), I always thought it was way easier to ship from CA to NY off the plane than the other way around. A lot of guys have done really well coming into NY for as far back as I can remember (which is decades). I've read theories on why it was tougher to go to CA, but that's all speculation.

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by cj

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

The same is also true on turf, the pace is more demanding out west. However, that probably isn't an advantage on turf and more likely is a detriment. Finishing speed tops all on turf and that is lacking in SoCal.

I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I'd think the opposite is true. Horses who race and train over deeper, more demanding tracks should feel like life just got easy when their bounce off a harder surface, and vice versa. Same for the humidity factor.

I don't think that is the opposite, I think it is a different thing altogether.

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by cj

In general, when adjusted for overall track speed, dirt races in Southern California are contested at a much more demanding pace. I think this gives them an edge head to head when they do meet up. If I'm used to running laps at the track in a minute and half and I suddenly only have to run 1:45, it will feel like I can run for days.

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

Or any turf route.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

Or any turf route.

[cj]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

No doubt, jockeys are probably the biggest reason, and the trainers that give them instructions.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by castaway01

Another example of why you should never debate Spalding...

Except I never said that there weren't plenty of horses that passed the test, only that it is a legitimate test.

The pace and jockey issues discussed in this thread are part of the reason why.

[Pine Tree Lane]

Originally Posted by reckless

Do you remember Revidere, Dahoss?

She ran the very next year after Ruffian. Also by Revidere but not out of the same mare. Owned by the same people, too, Stuart Janney.

Her numbers were equal and often greater than Ruffian's were, by my way of doing speed figures at the time. Just sayin'.

Actually, Revidere was owned by William Haggin Perry. A half to Ruffian, she naturally was overshadowed, but she was extremely talented, missing against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.bshe won the first Ruffian by 14 lengths. If her ankles were ever right she would be near the top of the list of all time fillies/mares.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Except I never said that there weren't plenty of horses that passed the test, only that it is a legitimate test.

The pace and jockey issues discussed in this thread are part of the reason why.

Listen, no need to argue---just don't debate Spalding. People smarter than you think you are have gotten schooled.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by SharpCat
Jockeys play a role as well. No question jockeys in So. Cal are more aggressive out of the gate then they are in New York. Riders in New York drop anchor out of the gate quite often. Prime example was last years Kings Bishop.

They ride harder, train harder, and have their horses fIt and race.
Thei why they kic east coast ass so often.

We don't have trainers our here, we have nannies.
5 shoes on Gun Runner was something new, but 2 a-holes on a horse is run of the mill.