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Old 01-11-2017, 01:13 AM   #1
Nitro
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Cool HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 1/11/17

Good morning to everyone thats interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

Post Time Race #1 6:15 AM WED. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
Theres also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action its available here:
(Hit the Back Arrow <-- in the Upper Left and then Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?ur...ngRedirect=true

I wont be posting any Live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning, but my Early selections based on a static tote analysis will follow.
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Old 01-11-2017, 01:49 AM   #2
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EARLY SELECTIONS

As usual, Ive taken a look at the M/Ls and in combination with the early odds and have used the static tote analysis to come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the Live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause the Top 3 pick substitutions, but they all look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: #1 - #4 - #8
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns when combined odds produce Profit Margins higher than 50%.

R#1 - 1650M (8F) T....6-8 W/ 4-11-1-3 .........6:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 Watch Live tote activity)


R#2 - 1000M (5F) T.........1-2 W/ 6-7-8-5 ......6:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #3 & #4 Watch Live tote activity)


R#3 - 1200M (6F) T..........1-3 W/ 11-5-2-7........7:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #9 Watch Live tote activity)


R#4 - 1650M (8F) T........3-4 W/ 7-5-12-2...7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 Watch Live tote activity)


R#5 - 1650M (8F) T.....2-4 W/ 6-3-7-8...........8:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #1 & #12 Watch Live tote activity).


R#6 - 1000M (5F) T......3-4 W/ 2-5-8-11...8:45 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #6 Watch Live tote activity)


R#7 - 1650M (8F) T........1-3 W/ 4-6-5-9..........9:15 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #2 & #7 Watch Live tote activity)


R#8 -1200M (6F) T.......2-3 W/ 5-6-9-11 .....9:50 AM EST
(Also of interest are: #4 & #10 Watch Live tote activity)


Good Luck today if youre playing!
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Old 01-11-2017, 02:17 AM   #3
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Verticals

1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value its sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F. B w/C-D-E-F.C w/D-E-F.D w/E-F..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher)

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others itll be 80 Bets, but theres potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

4) I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
Its in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.
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Old 01-11-2017, 10:49 AM   #4
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R#1 & R#2

R#1 - 6-8 W/ 4-11-1-3
Live Tote Results: 4-12-1-11
3rd choice $4.80 Early & 2nd choice Live 91% Dutch Profit Margin


R#2 - 1-2 W/ 6-7-8-5
Live Tote Results: 6-9-10-2
3rd choice $6.00 Early & Top choice Live - 52% Dutch Profit Margin
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Old 01-11-2017, 11:11 AM   #5
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R#3 & R#4

R#3 - 1-3 W/ 11-5-2-7 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-2-3-11
4th choice $12.10 Early & Live & $98.70 QUIN & $787.40 TRI Bx - Dutch Out


R#4 - 3-4 W/ 7-5-12-2 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 4-2-5-3
2nd choice $7.70 Early & Live & $75.80 QUIN & $2,204.80 TRI Bx - 62% Dutch Profit Margin
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Old 01-11-2017, 11:24 AM   #6
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R#5 - 2-4 W/ 6-3-7-8
Live Tote Results: 6-12-10-8
3rd choice $16.40 Early & Live - 226% Dutch Profit Margin


R#6 - 3-4 W/ 2-5-8-11 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 11-3-4-1
6th choice $5.20 Early & Top choice Live & $12.10 QUIN & $92.20 TRI Bx - Dutch Out (Early)
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Old 01-11-2017, 11:45 AM   #7
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R#7 & R#8

R#7 - 1-3 W/ 4-6-5-9 - All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 5-1-3-2
5th choice $55.80 Early & Live & $399.20 QUIN / $4,283.60 TRI Bx - Dutch Out


R#8 - 2-3 W/ 5-6-9-11 All of that one!
Live Tote Results: 11-9-5-3
6th choice Early & 2nd choice $4.10 Live $11.90 QUIN & $32.80 TRI BX - Dutch Out (Early)
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