Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapping Software
User Name
Password

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread
Old 12-17-2016, 03:33 PM   #1
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Pace Analysis Software

Anyone interested in developing/working on developing/testing/contributing (time and effort--not money) to a collaborative pace analysis software app (FREE to anyone who wants it, even to clone/copy/steal it, otherwise known as "open source") intended to develop/increase/sharpen the user's pace analysis skills?

NOT a "horse picker" app. An app (or addition to/component of/module of an existing or other app) that creates a deeper level of understanding of pace (and how it affects race outcomes) than (whatever else is available). Something that a new or novice user can "fiddle with" for a relatively short period of time and gain insights into pace analysis that many experienced/"expert"/hardcore pace analysts lack.

Basically, I developed a pace training module some years ago for private use by a blackjack team. I intended to incorporate that module (and the improvements/upgrades/additions to that module) into a race analysis software app designed for professional use. Reality is that the software developed will not be sold. Period. The (current and future) users of that software neither need nor want "pace analysis training functionality."

The training component is based on pattern recognition and some fairly sophisticated training methodologies (used by, tested by, and (sometimes) criticized by mostly graduate students in business analysis and managerial decision making familiar with various high-end "dashboard" type decision support software). It is NOT "technically complex" from a development standpoint. It is technically complex from the standpoint of the training methodologies employed.

There has been MUCH discussion about "helping newbies and novices" that rarely seems to go much beyond the "read everything you can, practice losing for 20 years, and MAYBE you will be able to break even" school of thought. There has been an equivalent amount of discussion bemoaning the "demise" of the racing industry. I think the best way to improve the racing industry is to give the newbies/novices/potential newbies and novices a good shot at making a few bucks right out of the gate--without the endless (and often conflicting) "theories" about "conventional handicapping approaches" that do little more than overwhelm newbies, novices, and most everyone else with that which psychologists refer to as the "principle of maximum confusion" and (perhaps more eloquently) a "crazymaker."

I have a LOT of code, lots of design completed, that was written (over time) for use (not sale). It could (fairly easily) be put into a more concise form and embedded in existing software. I would be happy to help with the further design and development, provided it is ONLY embedded in or developed for FREE, open-source, no strings attached, non-commercial software until fully developed and freely available to anyone who wants it. After that, anyone who wants to embed it in commercial software is free to do so--as long as the user or prospective user realizes that it is available as a standalone app without charge.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 03:48 PM   #2
JJMartin
Registered User
 
JJMartin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 428
vCash: 400
If there is a place for VBA, I might be able to contribute. In fact, I am pretty sure the whole thing could be written in Excel.
JJMartin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 03:48 PM   #3
TexasDolly
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 412
vCash: 400
I am interested in it by all means. I am not sure what needs to be done to use it or what data can be used for an input . Further development would be hazy for me probably.
Thank you,
TD
TexasDolly is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 04:23 PM   #4
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by JJMartin
If there is a place for VBA, I might be able to contribute. In fact, I am pretty sure the whole thing could be written in Excel.


Most of the code is Visual Basic. Easy to splice into Excel.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 04:25 PM   #5
Hypnotist1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 14
vCash: 400
Pace software

I would like to be part of the test group


Thank you

Steven

Hypnotist1
Hypnotist1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 04:25 PM   #6
JJMartin
Registered User
 
JJMartin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 428
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by traynor
Most of the code is Visual Basic. Easy to splice into Excel.

Sounds good.
JJMartin is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 04:33 PM   #7
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexasDolly
I am interested in it by all means. I am not sure what needs to be done to use it or what data can be used for an input . Further development would be hazy for me probably.
Thank you,
TD


Sample races, that illustrate the hows and whys of pace analysis, are one of the most important "needs.". Things to look for, and why. Much (if not most) existing pace analysis used the Aristotelian "talking heads" model of instruction--give a sample, tell the (witless, mindless, uncritical learner) that such and such happened "because" of such and so--and ignore the fact that a reasonably thoughtful learner can readily find many, many cases where the same (or essentially similar) scenario existed, but with a different outcome. In essence, correlations have been (and still are) presented as cause-and-effect.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 04:34 PM   #8
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypnotist1
I would like to be part of the test group


Thank you

Steven

Hypnotist1


Great!

What does your handle mean? Any experience with Ericksonian?
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.

Last edited by traynor : 12-17-2016 at 04:36 PM.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 09:30 PM   #9
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Clarification.

For anything less than a complete black box software app--that requires ZERO decision-making on the part of the user, especially in regard to which of a plethora of various ratings, rankings, and representations to use in the specific race in question--certain decisions are required. My intent is to enable new or novice users (or even the sharpest tacks in the box) to make better decisions in regard to which races are worth considering for wagers, which horses in that race are likely to "perform in a manner that will have a serious impact on the outcome of the race," and which horses are the most likely to "finish forwardly" in that race, given the probable performance of all the other horses in that specific race.

If a black box software app can do that with sufficient accuracy to generate a decent profit over time, great. Buy/lease/steal/(or develop) that software and get on with your life. Use the additional time you will have available by using the black box app to ponder the various options of how, where, and why you will spend or invest that profit. Until then, I suggest it may be more useful to develop a basic set of pattern recognition skills and depend more on yourself to do a bit of the preliminary work in race analysis. A fringe benefit is that the skills developed are almost guaranteed to improve the performance of any race analysis software app of any flavor or complexity that you are using or considering using.

Not too difficult. Definitely not expensive. Doesn't require much more than a bit of study and a little critical thinking.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.

Last edited by traynor : 12-17-2016 at 09:32 PM.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 09:45 PM   #10
DeltaLover
Registered user
 
DeltaLover's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: FALIRIKON DELTA
Posts: 4,151
vCash: 400
I think that my understanding of this project is quite fuzzy and if you can provide some more information it might become easier to decide whether if I am interesting or not.

(1) You are mentioning that you have a lot of code. Is there any repository that we can read it and getting a feeling of it?

(2) Do you have any design documents viewing the project from a high level?

(3) Answering to a poster you said that your code has a lot of VB code, something that probably needs to be changed if you want to attract the interest of the open source community who traditionally is allergic to anything coming out of Microsoft.

(4) This kind of a project needs close communication among the team members and definitely cannot be managed in the way you are suggesting in your PM. You say that you rarely use phones, PMs, or personal email, if this is the case you probably need to forget all about open source development, which is based in frequent scrums, on line messengers, skype sessions, one2ones etc.
__________________
whereof one cannot speak thereof one must be silent
Ludwig Wittgenstein
DeltaLover is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 09:47 PM   #11
rsetup
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 581
vCash: 400
What is this exactly, pace figures or race dynamics?

Is this visual, hence, pattern recognition?

Why in the world is anyone still programming in VB?
rsetup is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 11:22 PM   #12
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeltaLover
I think that my understanding of this project is quite fuzzy and if you can provide some more information it might become easier to decide whether if I am interesting or not.

(1) You are mentioning that you have a lot of code. Is there any repository that we can read it and getting a feeling of it?

(2) Do you have any design documents viewing the project from a high level?

(3) Answering to a poster you said that your code has a lot of VB code, something that probably needs to be changed if you want to attract the interest of the open source community who traditionally is allergic to anything coming out of Microsoft.

(4) This kind of a project needs close communication among the team members and definitely cannot be managed in the way you are suggesting in your PM. You say that you rarely use phones, PMs, or personal email, if this is the case you probably need to forget all about open source development, which is based in frequent scrums, on line messengers, skype sessions, one2ones etc.


(1) Not yet. I am currently stripping the trainer portion from a previous app version, so it can be plugged in almost anywhere. Time is an issue. It was not (originally) intended to be separated from the analysis portion of the app.

(2) No. It was originally a semi-collaborative effort by members of a blackjack team, for their own use. Not intended to be celestial in complexity. Intended to make learning a basic set of schemas simple.

(3) I (partially) disagree. Lots of people use Microsoft. Lots of horse race handicappers use Microsoft, especially Excel (which, in turn, uses a subset of Visual Basic). I think if the open-source community knew much about analyzing horse races, much better stuff would already be freely available. If you know of such, please post a link so everyone can take advantage of it.

(4) I (mostly) disagree. I managed (and still occasionally manage) collocated development teams with little more than (occasional) emails and an ftp dump site. If you are familiar with Jarvenpaa and Leidner, you will have a pretty clear idea of what I think about managing collocated development teams:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...0080.x/abstract

My interest in developing software is (and has been for quite awhile) in developing software, rather than "close management" or the social aspects of so doing. Good developers are easy to find (and easy to manage). Good managers, MUCH less so.

I could forget about (a conventional approach to the popular notion of) "open-source" software development without much remorse. Perhaps it would be best to operationalize my use of "open-source" as freely available--including code--to pretty much whoever wants it. Nothing more complex than that.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 11:28 PM   #13
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by rsetup
What is this exactly, pace figures or race dynamics?

Is this visual, hence, pattern recognition?

Why in the world is anyone still programming in VB?


Both.

Visual.

Because one can do more in less time with it than anything else?
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 11:32 PM   #14
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypnotist1
I would like to be part of the test group


Thank you

Steven

Hypnotist1


In the process of locating previous versions of the software (that still had the training portion reasonably intact) I ran across the (previously declared missing) greyhound apps you asked about. I'll send you the code block for class calculations. If you need anything else, let me know.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 12-17-2016, 11:42 PM   #15
traynor
Registered User
 
traynor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 6,295
vCash: 400
For anyone interested:

"This paper explores the challenges of creating and maintaining trust in a global virtual team whose members transcend time, space, and culture. The challenges are highlighted by integrating recent literature on work teams, computer-mediated communication groups, cross-cultural communication, and interpersonal and organizational trust. To explore these challenges empirically, we report on a series of descriptive case studies on global virtual teams whose members were separated by location and culture, were challenged by a common collaborative project, and for whom the only economically and practically viable communication medium was asynchronous and synchronous computer-mediated communication. The results suggest that global virtual teams may experience a form of ‘swift’ trust but such trust appears to be very fragile and temporal. The study raises a number of issues to be explored and debated by future research. Pragmatically, the study describes communication behaviors that might facilitate trust in global virtual teams."

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/...0080.x/abstract

Particularly disliked by MBWA enthusiasts, who love to avoid blame with comments like, "You may think that was what I said, but what I REALLY said was (blah blah blah, fill in the blanks with CYA). For those who are not familiar with the acronym, MBWA is "management by walking around." Lots of talky talky, minimal paper trail that could come back to haunt later. Think the "instructions" given to Calley before My Lai.
__________________
"Sooner or later we must be ready to leave the dreamland of childhood, where imagination finds unlimited scope, and take our place in a world of limited freedoms. That world however, can in the long run give us something better than any vision conjured up in childhood."
Joost Meerloo – Total War and the Human Mind: A Psychologist's Experience in Occupied Holland, 1944.

Last edited by traynor : 12-17-2016 at 11:50 PM.
traynor is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:28 PM.



Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 1999 - 2016 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed @ 1024x768 Resolution Or Higher