Dutching Races

[pandy]

If you bet exotics, you are already "dutching", aren't you? For instance, if you play the Daily Double and use two horses in each race, you are dutching.

As for win betting, the only way betting more than one horse to win has a chance at a profit is for longshot bettors who might spot two big longshots that they like in a race and bet both.

From my experience, I can say that using two horses as exacta keys has worked well for me over the years, but I rarely do this unless both are double-digit odds. For instance, say my picks in a race are 5-1-3-4 and the 5 is 9-2 odds and the 1 is 15-1 odds and I really think that the 1 is a live longshot in the race.

I'll play exacta box keys 1 and 5 with 1, 3, 4, 5 and an extra box on the 1-5. Sometimes I might add a small win bet on the 1 as a saver in czse it wins at a price and I miss the exacta.

In this scenario, I basically like two horses, the 1 and 5, and neither one is a favorite, there's value in keying both. I've had many hits where I keyed two horses that were over 10-1 odds in this same manner and hit some big exactas and a few trifectas.

[kyle r]

[QUOTE=pandy;2855691]If you bet exotics, you are already "dutching", aren't you? For instance, if you play the Daily Double and use two horses in each race, you are dutching.

I think definitions are important. My understanding is that “dutching” refers to betting two or more horses to win in differing amounts so as to equalize return. I think “hedging,” which is closer to what many do with some of the simpler exotics and which your example suggests, can be a useful risk management tool if used judiciously. It falls under the “psychological” umbrella I alluded to in my first post and the essential need to stay in action from my most recent. As far as a more straightforward, common exotic bet like, say, a three horse exacta box, it may not be an optimum play in most circumstances, but I think we have to allow for the limitations of the human mind and recognize once we start calculating odds and probabilities on that scale, AND have to do the things involved in the playing of the game, there is a point of overload. So, i would say, something like a three horse box - as long as you are aware of what you are actually doing - should be viewed as a single wager. Maybe your median return is $30 for $1. You’re betting a 4-1 shot. Based the legitimacy of the bet on those odds. Yeah, if then on top of that you bet more exactas with additional horses thrown in that, at least in intent, starts to look more like “dutching.”

[Aerocraft67]

Betting exotics isn't inherently Dutching. Dutching exotics is like any other wager.

Playing a box is inherently not Dutching (putting aside the scenario with every runner in the box having the same odds). Equalizing bets on three exactas with different odds is Dutching.

Now maybe you play multiple boxes and bet more on those including more chalk. And of course you're just estimating payout differences in deeper exotic pools that don't show probables. That's Dutching, if not the most precise realization of it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

That's why I favor the exotics...especially the verticals. With the vertical exotics..."value" can often be created even if the top choice is underlaid. In my opinion, at least.

My typical bet in the kind of situation I described would be 2 win bets and an exacta box. If I REALLY hate the favorite, then I'll try to crush the race in the trifecta and super.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

My contention of winning (or profitability) at this game has nothing to with “probability”. It has everything to do with an individual’s ability of making appropriately accurate selections at a reasonable rate that will produce a decent profit margin over a period of time.

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, which is based on probability.
In order to make that profit, you have to bet horses that are paying more than they should. Which comes down to probabilities. Whether you're consciously "using" it or not, it's always about probability.

The comment I made above has absolutely nothing to do with “probability”. Probability from a math perspective is the perception of how likely an event will happen generally measured in percentages. For instance there’s a 30% chance of rain or there’s 50% chance the flip of the coin will turn up heads.

When discussing a Hit frequency % the result that makes up that percentage indicates a clear picture of measured events that have already taken place. Probability has nothing to do with this type of assessment. The values associated with those results will also provide an appraisal of how much those Hits produced. With good planning and proper execution an established Hit frequency % will also provide the value (odds) requirements for future events to remain profitable.

For instance, if your Dutch hit frequency is a moderate 60% you would want the potential profit margin for any future event to exceed that % by at least 25% in order to remain profitable. With a reasonably good selection process it’s not very difficult to achieve individual Win Dutching profit margins above 85% as shown below.

Ex. - 2 entry Dutch p[ay
	LOW		HI	BET	PRF	PRF %
Odds	2.0		4.0			
Ea Ret	$6		$10			
Ea Bet	$10		$6	$16	$14	88%
TotRet	$30		$30			

Naturally, any increase in the O.A. Hit frequency % or the individual Dutch profit margin results will likewise dramatically increase the O.A. profit realized.
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[formula_2002]

TOO MANY WORDS!!
LET SEE SOME NUMBERS LIKE TOTAL BET VS TOTAL RETURN.

WENT TO A RANDOM DATE,10/6/2022

USED MY EXACTA BOARD TO MAKE WIN BETS ON HORSES WHO'S CALCULATED EXACTA PROBABILITY EXCEEDED THE PUBLIC'S EXACTA PAYOUT PROBABILITY.

I'LL POST MORE RESULTS UNTIL THE PLAY CRASHES.IN THE PAST I COMPARED DUTCH PLAY TO PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAY. THE RESULTS WERE THE SAME.

[elhelmete]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

TOO MANY WORDS!!

O the irony

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

TOO MANY WORDS!!
LET SEE SOME NUMBERS LIKE TOTAL BET VS TOTAL RETURN.

WENT TO A RANDOM DATE,10/6/2022

USED MY EXACTA BOARD TO MAKE WIN BETS ON HORSES WHO'S CALCULATED EXACTA PROBABILITY EXCEEDED THE PUBLIC'S EXACTA PAYOUT PROBABILITY.

I'LL POST MORE RESULTS UNTIL THE PLAY CRASHES.IN THE PAST I COMPARED DUTCH PLAY TO PROPORTIONAL ODDS PLAY. THE RESULTS WERE THE SAME.

using the same 10/6/2022 races and eliminating my highest rank I get the following:

for the 26 races
for bet sizes >=7 and <33, bet $$87 return $178
for bet sizes >=33 and <76, bet $250 return $370
i'll test the method of play further.

i would not bet any money yet

[headhawg]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

i would not bet any money yet

[formula_2002]

highest rank horse eliminated from the play.

I'm just following the numbers. now 54 plays reviewed.

[formula_2002]

highest rank horse eliminated from the play.

92 races reviewed, 76 played
28% winners
$1 return $1.07.

still waiting for the play to crash

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

highest rank horse eliminated from the play.

92 races reviewed, 76 played
28% winners
$1 return $1.07.

still waiting for the play to crash

CHART

[elhelmete]

Thread hijack in full force.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by elhelmete

Thread hijack in full force.

He means well.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

He means well.

well, to the well informed