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Old 01-30-2023, 03:45 PM   #1
soflant
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Dutching Races

I have read a few articles that said Dutching is the best way to make a profit by playing two to three horses. I have a question. How can Dutching show a profit with the odds constantly changing even as the race already started? Most of the time the odds keep dropping as I am sure happens most of the time. I would like to hear anyone's thoughts on this subject. Thanks so much in advance.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:30 PM   #2
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Let’s consider. We are talking gambling. Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability. And probability is a branch of mathematics. So, what does the math say? The math says the only way to profit in the long run is to make bets where the probability, ie the odds, are in your favor. No betting system can negate or alter that reality. Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack. In summation, dutching is not mathematically sound. Now, if psychologically you need to cash more frequently to keep you off tilt there may be a price and value to that. But you must not pay too dear. And buying insurance race in and race out is obviously too dear a price to pay.
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Old 01-30-2023, 05:08 PM   #3
thaskalos
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Let’s consider. We are talking gambling. Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability. And probability is a branch of mathematics. So, what does the math say? The math says the only way to profit in the long run is to make bets where the probability, ie the odds, are in your favor. No betting system can negate or alter that reality. Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack. In summation, dutching is not mathematically sound. Now, if psychologically you need to cash more frequently to keep you off tilt there may be a price and value to that. But you must not pay too dear. And buying insurance race in and race out is obviously too dear a price to pay.
My memory isn't what it used to be, so I might be wrong in my assessment here...but this might be the most intelligent post that I have read on this board during the 17 years that I've been here. And I am dead serious.

If I may, I'd like to add that...if we think that we can regularly find two or three overlaid horses in the same race which we could "dutch"...then we are surely deceiving ourselves.
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Old 01-30-2023, 05:19 PM   #4
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My memory isn't what it used to be, so I might be wrong in my assessment here...but this might be the most intelligent post that I have read on this board during the 17 years that I've been here. And I am dead serious.
I think your memory is sound. So too your discernment Thanks for the props.

Last edited by PaceAdvantage; 01-30-2023 at 05:41 PM. Reason: fixed quote
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Old 01-30-2023, 06:00 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by kyle r View Post
Let’s consider. We are talking gambling. Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability. And probability is a branch of mathematics. So, what does the math say? The math says the only way to profit in the long run is to make bets where the probability, ie the odds, are in your favor. No betting system can negate or alter that reality. Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack. In summation, dutching is not mathematically sound. Now, if psychologically you need to cash more frequently to keep you off tilt there may be a price and value to that. But you must not pay too dear. And buying insurance race in and race out is obviously too dear a price to pay.
Looking at it from a slightly different angle - just quickly thinking out loud, absolutely willing to have it torn apart.

Our estimations of probabilities in setting our odds lines need to be very good, but they won't be perfect. Some will be set too high, some too low. So our one "biggest overlay" may not be the actual biggest overlay. Dutching can potentially catch more of our internal errors and smooth overall performance. (Your point about keeping off tilt here is relevant - that's less of a concern with an "automated" way of estimating true odds, but VERY applicable if you arrive at your odds line "manually".)

With so many small fields today, one can envision the dutch as setting up a virtual "coin flip" situation (my 2 against the other 3 or 4, my 3 against the other 4) where you may be essentially getting 6 to 5 for your win and only paying the 5 when you lose, if you dutch to bet a flat amount per race. I'd flip that coin as many times as I can, and if I'm not trying to split hairs between two contenders, I'm liable to put more into play.
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Old 01-30-2023, 06:16 PM   #6
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Looking at it from a slightly different angle - just quickly thinking out loud, absolutely willing to have it torn apart.

Our estimations of probabilities in setting our odds lines need to be very good, but they won't be perfect. Some will be set too high, some too low. So our one "biggest overlay" may not be the actual biggest overlay. Dutching can potentially catch more of our internal errors and smooth overall performance. (Your point about keeping off tilt here is relevant - that's less of a concern with an "automated" way of estimating true odds, but VERY applicable if you arrive at your odds line "manually".)

With so many small fields today, one can envision the dutch as setting up a virtual "coin flip" situation (my 2 against the other 3 or 4, my 3 against the other 4) where you may be essentially getting 6 to 5 for your win and only paying the 5 when you lose, if you dutch to bet a flat amount per race. I'd flip that coin as many times as I can, and if I'm not trying to split hairs between two contenders, I'm liable to put more into play.
It seems to me that the said "short fields" are the races that are most susceptible to the indignity of the drastic late odds dropdowns that we so often see in today's game. Consequently...I would be worried that I would collect 4 to 5...instead of the 6 to 5 that I initially expected.
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Old 01-30-2023, 06:55 PM   #7
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Even if multiple horses in any particular race offer, in your opinion, overlaid odds - considering the reality of high takeout and breakage a likely occurrence of uncommon frequency - one horse will always be the biggest overlay. And betting on any but that entry is the wrong tack.
In theory you are 100% correct.

But imo the reality is sometimes a little different (at least for me).

The complexities of the game are such that trying to place an exact probability on each horse is more of an intellectual exercise than one that always produces a fairly accurate estimate. I think a "range' is probably a better way to think about it because none of us is working with complete or fully accurate data/insights.

If you put the 10 best handicappers in the world in the same room they'd all make different odd lines (different figures, different insights etc..)

I think there are times you know two horses are an overlay (perhaps you hate the favorite) but your estimates of value are way too fuzzy to know which is more of an overlay. So imo it's fine to bet both.

Another may be a situation where the biggest overlay has between a 5%-8% chance of winning at 25-1 and another horse has a 30% chance at 3-1. The first one is a bigger overlay, but proper bankroll management would suggest you could bet more on the latter without risk of ruin. So why not bet both?
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Old 01-30-2023, 07:05 PM   #8
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The complexities of the game are such that trying to place an exact probability on each horse is more of an intellectual exercise than one that always produces a fairly accurate estimate. I think a "range' is probably a better way to think about it because none of us is working with complete or fully accurate data/insights.

If you put the 10 best handicappers in the world in the same room they'd all make different odd lines (different figures, different insights etc..)
I have a hunch that you are exaggerating here for effect. The game is complicated...but not to the point where the world's 10 top handicappers would all construct different odds lines, at least on the contending horses.

Let's not forget that the odds line represents the individual handicapper's opinion...not the game's "complexity". And we as horseplayers aren't all that "unique"...IMO.
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Old 01-30-2023, 07:34 PM   #9
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I have a hunch that you are exaggerating here for effect. The game is complicated...but not to the point where the world's 10 top handicappers would all construct different odds lines, at least on the contending horses.
Maybe I'm exaggerating a little.

I listen to a few podcasts featuring what I would consider to be very sharp handicappers. They all use a different sets of figures (some make their own). They all have more or less information on biases, trip, trainers, breeding, pace etc.. depending on the type of information and circuit they focus on.

If they were to all make odds lines, I think you'd see many similarities among the contenders, but within most races you'd probably see at least 1-2 notable differences.

I like to look at a lot of things in a lot of different ways. My thinking is often foggy enough to not be sure which of two horses represents a better play. So I bet both (usually when I hate the favorite). If I had a higher degree of confidence (or arrogance?) in my ability to separate them, I'd only play the better one.
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Old 01-30-2023, 07:42 PM   #10
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Maybe I'm exaggerating a little.

I listen to a few podcasts featuring what I would consider to be very sharp handicappers. They all use a different sets of figures (some make their own). They all have more or less information on biases, trip, trainers, breeding, pace etc.. depending on the type of information and circuit they focus on.

If they were to all make odds lines, I think you'd see many similarities among the contenders, but within most races you'd probably see at least 1-2 notable differences.

I like to look at a lot of things in a lot of different ways. My thinking is often foggy enough to not be sure which of two horses represents a better play. So I bet both (usually when I hate the favorite). If I had a higher degree of confidence (or arrogance?) in my ability to separate them, I'd only play the better one.
That's why I favor the exotics...especially the verticals. With the vertical exotics..."value" can often be created even if the top choice is underlaid. In my opinion, at least.
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Old 01-30-2023, 09:25 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by soflant View Post
I have read a few articles that said Dutching is the best way to make a profit by playing two to three horses. I have a question. How can Dutching show a profit with the odds constantly changing even as the race already started? Most of the time the odds keep dropping as I am sure happens most of the time. I would like to hear anyone's thoughts on this subject. Thanks so much in advance.
When you said” Most of the time”, I’m assuming you’re referring to the betting at those tracks where the Win pools are not as large as those as the larger tracks or major events. I previously posted sort of a guide line for successful Dutch wagering: Post#15 http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=173682
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Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability.
We certainly have a disagreement when it comes to this premise: “Winning gambling is a function of understanding probability”. My contention of winning (or profitability) at this game has nothing to with “probability”. It has everything to do with an individual’s ability of making appropriately accurate selections at a reasonable rate that will produce a decent profit margin over a period of time. From a Win betting perspective whether you’re playing favorites or long shots the only 2 factors to consider are the actual Hit frequency % and the Returns on each bet. A personal history of both will determine profitability and if potential adjustments are necessary.

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Old 01-31-2023, 12:14 AM   #12
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My contention of winning (or profitability) at this game has nothing to with “probability”. It has everything to do with an individual’s ability of making appropriately accurate selections at a reasonable rate that will produce a decent profit margin over a period of time.
Yeah, which is based on probability.

In order to make that profit, you have to bet horses that are paying more than they should. Which comes down to probabilities. Whether you're consciously "using" it or not, it's always about probability.
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Old 01-31-2023, 07:00 AM   #13
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The long term profit thing gets stressed here.

Which is great. This site has lots of content geared towards investing rather than gambling.

For long term profitability , you need to see a true vulnerability favorite that you KKnow with certainty that will underperform. (Rather than a guess or feeling)

Then the following decision tree is solid (open to your ideas to improve or debate)

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some good content in this thread



here's my general system

VULNERABLE FAV?
No = Pass

if YES? then Identifiable Overlays?
No = Pass

YES? then is there a PREFERRED OVERLAY?
No = Dutch!

YES?
Yes = just Bet the preferred overlay.
Lets say you aren't good at vulnerable chalk, or you enjoy gambling action (and deal with the losses)
Dutching is OK for high % action. Better if you can read will-pays to reduce being surprised bypredictable late money.
Better still if 3-5 contenders and you like2 of them
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Old 01-31-2023, 07:30 AM   #14
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We haven't focused on the problem of unknown final odds for Dutching. Not that I have a fancy answer. You just have to project final odds for your Dutch. Bad news is, that's yet another estimate. Good news is, it simplifies things by not chasing a moving target, and matches your opinion.

Even if the Dutch turns out not to match the final odds, I think it suits the strategy, since you've equalized your bets based on your assessment of their differing probabilities. I think the goal of equalizing your wagers based on your projection is at least as important as matching it with the crowd's final tally.

I'm in the accommodating camp for Dutching. It's just as plausible to have an overlay proposition with multiple horses as with one. Especially with a vulnerable favorite. Even if you dilute the best single overlay, you get coverage for that in return, and the Dutch keeps investments efficient.

How many times have you been right about the vulnerable favorite but had the wrong shot on the ticket? Also, a 2/1 proposition is 2/1 whether it's on one horse or three. I just like not having a single point of failure.

There is also an anti-Dutch school of thought, or at least one that does not require bet equalization. You can see the merit of this faced with a Dutch of an even money shot with a 20-1. Why am I loading up on this chalk again? That's probably not a common scenario, just illustrating the concept. We unpacked this in a thread about horizontal wagers a while back.
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Old 01-31-2023, 08:05 AM   #15
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If one wanted to get philosophical one could look at the idea of dutching and this ensuing discussion in a more general light. It seems some want to deny the nature of the world in which we find ourselves: “Gambling is not based on probability.” Many lack faith in themselves and the ability to accurately assess reality. “Not even the best of us can make accurate evaluations.” And, what we do ant above all us is security. “Surely it’s safer to bet multiple horses even if you give away part of your edge.” I say, as in life so in gambling. Do not delude yourself. Trust in your own judgement. Calculate your risk but don’t seek to eliminate it. While it’s undeniable you have to stay in action in order to win in the long run, you can’t adopt a strategy that in its essence is only a slow death.
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