SAFFIE JOSEPH JR. - FURTHER POSITION TAKEN

[paulbenny]

Prior to the Gulfstream card yesterday, I summarily dismissed all his runners in a writeup I prepared on a public site for two reasons:

1. His horses did look overrated on the numbers, especially in the Pegasus
2. The morning line appeared to corroborate this and if they were to take the money suggested, it was a waste of money.

Regardless of that, it was apparent as the card moved on that in general, when his barn faces opposition from all parts of the country on his home ground, he gets buried. He certainly did yesterday.

I know occasionally he comes up with a win like the PA Derby or Charles Town Classic type races. I give you that.

He is not exposed on anything and I raised this about three years ago -- he is one of those trainers that just makes me question what he is doing. Really. How come the West Point types don't use him? How often does someone give him a pricey runner? If he were as good as things appear to be with 30K runners claimed running their eyeballs out then where are the big guns with the money?

Lastly, if racing has come to that last race yesterday having one-fourth of the field populated with his runners, then how bad has the game become???

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

Lastly, if racing has come to that last race yesterday having one-fourth of the field populated with his runners, then how bad has the game become???

Not as bad as 80+% Bafferts in stakes races on the West Coast!

[paulbenny]

I am not trying to compare. Baffert got enough press and that is ongoing. I am not into the comparison game. Baffert does have in my view legitimate people investing in his runners. Legitimate is in the eye of the beholder I understand. I went through this three years ago and was pretty clear on my view of Joseph, Broberg, Navarro, McKnight and one other.

Baffert is always referred to.

[iamt]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

Prior to the Gulfstream card yesterday, I summarily dismissed all his runners in a writeup I prepared on a public site for two reasons:

1. His horses did look overrated on the numbers, especially in the Pegasus
2. The morning line appeared to corroborate this and if they were to take the money suggested, it was a waste of money.

Regardless of that, it was apparent as the card moved on that in general, when his barn faces opposition from all parts of the country on his home ground, he gets buried. He certainly did yesterday.

I know occasionally he comes up with a win like the PA Derby or Charles Town Classic type races. I give you that.

He is not exposed on anything and I raised this about three years ago -- he is one of those trainers that just makes me question what he is doing. Really. How come the West Point types don't use him? How often does someone give him a pricey runner? If he were as good as things appear to be with 30K runners claimed running their eyeballs out then where are the big guns with the money?

Lastly, if racing has come to that last race yesterday having one-fourth of the field populated with his runners, then how bad has the game become???

The largest (or close to it) trainer at the track ran 3 runners in the biggest open age stake of the year at the track and it is some blight on the game?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

I am not trying to compare. Baffert got enough press and that is ongoing. I am not into the comparison game. Baffert does have in my view legitimate people investing in his runners. Legitimate is in the eye of the beholder I understand. I went through this three years ago and was pretty clear on my view of Joseph, Broberg, Navarro, McKnight and one other.

Baffert is always referred to.

You missed or didn't understand the point. He's not comparing Baffert and Joseph for cheating. He's saying that a 1/4 of the field is nothing these days. Maybe you're not aware of modern horse racing, but you probably should be before you write articles about it.

[cj]

I mentioned somewhere (I forget which show, sorry) that I thought he was helping the GP racing sec fill races for the big day. I didn't see a single horse of his that I thought had a chance in any of the stakes races.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by cj

I mentioned somewhere (I forget which show, sorry) that I thought he was helping the GP racing sec fill races for the big day. I didn't see a single horse of his that I thought had a chance in any of the stakes races.

Yea I also thought they performed as expected, rather than underperforming because of some factor.

Didn't understand most of the other stuff in the first post.

[paulbenny]

Let me clarify. If there is a 3 million dollar race, and Saffie Joseph Jr. has three entries, that is not a good indicator of the state of the game. He is suspicious to me. I listened to the pre race analysis and they were touting him including that runner in the last race from Chile. I suspect a good number of horses fit that bill. I am not knowledgeable about what CJ said, but this guy does very little successfully outside of his home turf. They will catch up with him eventually.

He wins a lot in Florida. I do not think he is the cleanest guy. It will catch up with him or just like Parx they will let it continue with myopic standards or testing.

I never mentioned Baffert but that is kind of old news.

[paulbenny]

and i know the state of racing in California, and know a lot more than i am letting on. California has limited fields and declining stock and he is a dirt trainer and there are few getting the flesh he gets in all those six horse fields.

I have been following racing for my whole life and convinced someone to have me write articles and it is a side role and I have proven audit results that are published or were and they were solid.

[iamt]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

Let me clarify. If there is a 3 million dollar race, and Saffie Joseph Jr. has three entries, that is not a good indicator of the state of the game. He is suspicious to me. I listened to the pre race analysis and they were touting him including that runner in the last race from Chile. I suspect a good number of horses fit that bill. I am not knowledgeable about what CJ said, but this guy does very little successfully outside of his home turf. They will catch up with him eventually.

He wins a lot in Florida. I do not think he is the cleanest guy. It will catch up with him or just like Parx they will let it continue with myopic standards or testing.

I never mentioned Baffert but that is kind of old news.

What exactly is his record outside of Florida?

[paulbenny]

I am generalizing. I will research that and get back to you. I know that he ships a little to NY at Saratoga due to some connections and shows up in West Virginia. He did win with Math Wizard in PA. Hey, why isn't Jamie Ness shipping to the big venues. I could go on. I wanted to keep this tight. The experts are all on Baffert.

It just seems too comfortable. Why was White Abarrio touted, and so forth. My belief is he fails against tougher competition regardless of past performance. He came in a rolling fifth with Math Wizard in The BCC. The horse did nothing after that as I recall. I am not an encyclopedia but I raised the issue three years ago and it drove some questions then.

I cannot believe people believe Broberg, McKnight, Diodoro (the one I forgot) and Navarro were / are great great trainers. It was pointed out three years ago on Navarro when I wrote something then. I should have indicated the same on Servis. My background is in Finance but I watch a lot of races, read a lot etc.

[iamt]

I'm not saying people are clean or not, but your basis for this is wildly off. Why would any trainer, with the exception of stakes horses, be expected to ship anywhere, whether they are juicing or not?

[paulbenny]

California has ship and win and people ship. Shug, Todd P. Steve A. Brad Cox etc ship maidens all the time move horses around for spots. the go to Saratoga, etc. Yes, Brown only went there for stakes, maybe even Motion for California.

I worked at Saratoga, have done work for some OTB operators, I know what the business is all about.

If you were an owner, and had an expensive 2-year-old, would you give the runner to him or Ness? or Diodoro?

I am using logic that suggests if he were really really good, he would be given 500K runners because he seems to turn 30K claimers into incredible horses, at times. Brown is getting super horses for the turf. Motion is a horseman. They are not turning 30K claimers around. Maybe Motion did with BetterTalkNow, but he is a true class act. Those guys, like Motion keep my hopes up.

Maybe you assume better things than I do. I could weigh in on NY next if you want with a few people there who never break out with the better flesh. Behind the scenes it is a whisper in my view.

Remember what Gaspar Moschera said back in the old days about dishonest competitors.

[iamt]

Originally Posted by paulbenny

California has ship and win and people ship. Shug, Todd P. Steve A. Brad Cox etc ship maidens all the time move horses around for spots. the go to Saratoga, etc. Yes, Brown only went there for stakes, maybe even Motion for California.

I worked at Saratoga, have done work for some OTB operators, I know what the business is all about.

If you were an owner, and had an expensive 2-year-old, would you give the runner to him or Ness? or Diodoro?

I am using logic that suggests if he were really really good, he would be given 500K runners because he seems to turn 30K claimers into incredible horses, at times. Brown is getting super horses for the turf. Motion is a horseman. They are not turning 30K claimers around. Maybe Motion did with BetterTalkNow, but he is a true class act. Those guys, like Motion keep my hopes up.

Maybe you assume better things than I do. I could weigh in on NY next if you want with a few people there who never break out with the better flesh. Behind the scenes it is a whisper in my view.

Remember what Gaspar Moschera said back in the old days about dishonest competitors.

So he turns 30K claimers in incredible horses. So what incredible horses are these? Because the ones he produced yesterday were (according to you) poorly spotted and didn't have the figures to compete, and aren't good enough to ship anywhere?


He has a stable of incredible horses that are quite slow.

[rastajenk]

He worked at Saratoga, now he knows how it all works.