Does Anyone Play Show Anymore ?

[kyle r]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

By a 24-25 day streak how many races was that? Back when I played WPS
parlays I just played one day's whole card. Not in a contest I used a punch ticket.

One pick per day.

[soflant]

How can I tell if a horse is going to pay 2.40 and other horse pay 2.60 to "show"? What are the lowest odds do these horses have to go off for "win"? Would it be at least 3-1 or 4-1 or higher? Thanks for all the help in advance!

[soflant]

I forgot ask in my last post how exactly does a "show" parlay work? I am asking because if one bets straight "show" betting say for 10 races and the 11th race loses don't I lose all of my money even if I do parlays? Once again. Thanks.

[kyle r]

Originally Posted by soflant

How can I tell if a horse is going to pay 2.40 and other horse pay 2.60 to "show"? What are the lowest odds do these horses have to go off for "win"? Would it be at least 3-1 or 4-1 or higher? Thanks for all the help in advance!

You can’t tell. It matters who else hits the board. Best you can do is get a feel and check the show pools late, but they are always subject to significant change.

[Light]

Originally Posted by soflant

How can I tell if a horse is going to pay 2.40 and other horse pay 2.60 to "show"? What are the lowest odds do these horses have to go off for "win"? Would it be at least 3-1 or 4-1 or higher? Thanks for all the help in advance!

A very quick and easy way I use to determine if my horse will pay at least $2.60 is to look at the relationship between the show pool and the amount to show on my horse. If my horse has 25% or less than the show pool (1/4), chances are it will pay at least $2.60. This is accurate at least 90% of the time. I don't play show in races less than 6 horses so can't speak for that.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by soflant

How can I tell if a horse is going to pay 2.40 and other horse pay 2.60 to "show"? What are the lowest odds do these horses have to go off for "win"? Would it be at least 3-1 or 4-1 or higher? Thanks for all the help in advance!

One way = you LOVE a chalk in a Stakes or something where show betting may not be as much as a focus as some random heavy fav on a weekday card.
Usually not for a supertrainer or the top jockey. You know the circuit and check the pool. Even better if you feel a co-fav is a toss.
If it's an obvious near-lock, you'll get 2.10-2.20 most of the time.

Originally Posted by soflant

I forgot ask in my last post how exactly does a "show" parlay work? I am asking because if one bets straight "show" betting say for 10 races and the 11th race loses don't I lose all of my money even if I do parlays? Once again. Thanks.

just all of your parlay wager and any mid-parlay profits.

Example $5, 3Race show parlay

R1 $5
Win? Ret $6.50
lose? -$5
R2 $6 ($0.50 set aside)
Win? Ret $7.80
Lose? -$6
R3 $8
Win? $10.40 (+$0.30= $10.70 finished w/ a $5.70 profit)
lose? -$8 (+0.30= $7.70 finished w/ a $7.70 loss overall and $5 loss from start of Show Parlay)

[Barryt]

Hi Robert
I like your postscript
“Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.”

It’s good and it made me think a bit. It seemed to be missing something though, but that could be thought of as a part of “Preparation”. I would call it Expertise to go along with the other 4. Not arguing: just suggesting.

[Jeff P]

Right now as I type this there's about 3 mtp to R2 at Delta Downs.

Five horse field and #6 has about 90% of the show pool.

Don't know how this will turn out... But I'll take a shot against the bridgejumpers with show bets on #5 and #4.



-jp

.

[Barryt]

I played Showvivor a few times, got to the sweaty stages a couple of times but lost out. It’s quite a bit different though isn’t it as one doesn’t care about probable payouts. Quite the opposite as one seeks small fields and huge favourites to maximize show probability.
Whereas with a show parlay, say 3-6 legs, one needs at least 1.2 odds to turn $5 to $6 ($20 to 24) to enable some accumulation of profits. Ideally you should want just not to lose a show bet, but the payout odds have to average about 1.5 to double your stake every 3 bets.

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Right now as I type this there's about 3 mtp to R2 at Delta Downs.

Five horse field and #6 has about 90% of the show pool.

Don't know how this will turn out... But I'll take a shot against the bridgejumpers with show bets on #5 and #4.

Caught both... $3.00 on the #5 and $2.80 on the #4.

Point I was trying to make is there are (still) times when one horse is way overbet in the show pool... and every once in a while that horse underperforms.

Obviously, that didn't happen in this case.

But when it does, the unbalanced pool creates some exceptional payoffs.



-jp

.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

Caught both... $3.00 on the #5 and $2.80 on the #4.

Point I was trying to make is there are (still) times when one horse is way overbet in the show pool... and every once in a while that horse underperforms.

That was a remarkably smart bet.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Barryt

Hi Robert
I like your postscript
“Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.”

It’s good and it made me think a bit. It seemed to be missing something though, but that could be thought of as a part of “Preparation”. I would call it Expertise to go along with the other 4. Not arguing: just suggesting.

Thank you, and welcome to PA, Barry.

Expertise is a good one.

[SG4]

Originally Posted by kyle r

I’m a former winner of Showvivor at SA. I’ve led late on another occasion. And in the current contest I’m one of 19 people to be perfect through 12 days.

Congrats Kyle! I actually won a few years back as well, I had a 4/5 shot in a 5 horse field to win outright & they finished 4th, had to sweat out several more weeks after that to stay ahead on the win tiebreaker, super stressful! I also led into the final week of last year's fall meet but choked late there, and just got knocked out of the current contest on Sunday, so good luck to you the rest of the way (it's a looong meet to keep your nose in front).


Far as actually betting to show, I had a good run making a parlay of only horses I legitimately thought could only be off the board if they fell down, and that lasted through 35 races. 1 actually did almost jump the inside rail and miraculously held 3rd, and another bumped a rival so hard their jock almost fell off, while luckily holding on to 2nd so the DQ was OK on my end. So my handicapping was spot on, but horses still be crazy! Either way, I would've loved to keep messing around with these kind of parlays but all the ADW's said any more minus pool wins & I was gonna get cut off so that was the end of that fun. When all was said & done my parlay returned about 600% of the initial investment, so it was fun & profitable, although definitely not for the faint of heart when letting it all ride continuously.



Far as betting to show for regular profits, it seems like a fool's errand to me & the payoffs never seem to match the actual risk. Not to mention with breakage involved it's the absolute worst bet.

[kyle r]

Originally Posted by SG4

Congrats just got knocked out of the current contest on Sunday, so good luck to you the rest of the way (it's a looong meet to keep your nose in front).

Thanks, the winter/spring contest is a long one. The one I won was the fall; it ended on BC Saturday. Back then you could play any race no matter field size so it was a little easier to maintain a streak. Probably takes a streak of about 30 to win this one.



Far as betting to show for regular profits, it seems like a fool's errand to me & the payoffs never seem to match the actual risk. Not to mention with breakage involved it's the absolute worst bet.

Yeah, breakage always made it impossible to beat the show pools other than the odd opportunities others have pointed out. In Kentucky now it might be possible but, win betting will always outperform.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by kyle r

....but, win betting will always outperform.

Also, hands down Dutch Win betting will outperform Show betting when you consider an actual overall profit margin over a length of time and a series of plays. When comparing the two types of bets, you can generally determine the profit margin in advance on a race-by-race much more accurately when using the Dutch Win method. This alone allows you to determine if it’s a play or not. No matter which entry is selected for play, the biggest problem with the Show bet is when the favorite kills the value of the Show prices when it finishes anywhere in the money.

Ex. - 2 entry Dutch play
	LOW		HI	BET	PRF	PRF %
Odds	2.0		4.0			
Ea Ret	$6		$10			
Ea Bet	$10		$6	$16	$14	88%
TotRet	$30		$30			

Ex. - 3 entry Dutch play
	LOW	MID	HI	BET	PRF	PRF %
Odds	2.5	4.0	5.0			
Ea Ret	$7	$10	$12			
Ea Bet	$12	$8	$7	$27	$15	53%
TotRet	$42	$42	$42