Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Selections


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-26-2023, 10:31 AM   #16
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
for your interest only.

I compare my flat bet return to a proportional odds return, similar to the attached for your yesterday's race card.
it shows your $1 flat bet return was $0.69, while the proportional odds return was $0.91..

I also create my own odds line and compare those returns to the above.

Continued success

Attached Images
File Type: png proportional odds returnScreenshot 2023-01-26 100753.png (37.6 KB, 11 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-26-2023, 06:40 PM   #17
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
With the two scratches in the 6th race at DeD , the #1 Mercer the Racer (ent) no longer qualifies for a bet. I withdraw this pick.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-27-2023, 12:09 AM   #18
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Results:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Picks for 1/26/23

GP 1--------#5 Act a Fool----------------scratched
GP 2--------#1 Valiant Miss--------------place @ 7:1
Mvr 1-------#5 Music City Dancer-------won @ 8/5-----$5.40
Aqu 5-------#4 Zealous Legacy----------scratched
Aqu 5-------#8 Chalky Cat---------------out @ 13:1
GP 9--------#1 Apple Lover--------------out @ 9:1
GP 9--------#11 Take it South-----------show @ 26:1
TP 2--------#3 Beautiful Temple---------out @ 9/2
TP 2--------#11 Live Wire----------------out @ 14:1
DeD 6------#1 Macer the Racer (ent)---no bet
Penn 6-----#1 Grillo----------------------scratched
DeD 9------#8 Big Touch-----------------out @ 12:1
Bets: 8= $16.00
Wins 1 = $5.40
Loss = $10.60
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-27-2023, 09:01 AM   #19
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Picks for 1/27/23

GP 1-------------#1 Neogem
GP 1-------------#11 Amor Salvaje
Lrl 1--------------#5 Celtic Cousen
Tam 3------------#1 Dynamic Storm
Lrl 3--------------#4 Rascally Rebel
GP 4--------------#3 Gentleman Gerry
GP 4--------------#9 Dreamwithinadream
Tam 5------------#2 The Swayze Express
GP 7--------------#7 Starship Sunrise
GP 7---------------#11 Seven P's
Lrl 7---------------#8 No Easy Days
Aqu 8-------------#3 East Coast Girl
GP 10-------------#2 Midnight Getaway
FG 6--------------#7 Midnight Flame
DeD 6-------------#3 Kajun Karma
TP 1--------------#5 Party Next Door
TP 5---------------#6 Wiseacre
TP 5---------------#12 Mucino
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2023, 12:51 AM   #20
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Results:

[QUOTE=Aner;2854991]Picks for 1/27/23

GP 1-------------#1 Neogem-------------------Place @ 8:1
GP 1-------------#11 Amor Salvaje------------Out @ 5:1
Lrl 1--------------#5 Celtic Cousen------------Place @ 4/5
Tam 3------------#1 Dynamic Storm----------Out @ 17:1
Lrl 3--------------#4 Rascally Rebel-----------Out @ 70:1
GP 4--------------#3 Gentleman Gerry--------Out @ 19:1
GP 4--------------#9 Dreamwithinadream----Out @ 16:1
Tam 5------------#2 The Swayze Express----Show @ 9/2
GP 7--------------#7 Starship Sunrise-------Out @ 28:1
GP 7---------------#11 Seven P's-------------Out @ 17:1
Lrl 7---------------#8 No Easy Days----------Place @ 3/2
Aqu 8-------------#3 East Coast Girl---------Won @ 7/5---------$4.80
GP 10-------------#2 Midnight Getaway-----Show @ 3:1
FG 6--------------#7 Midnight Flame--------Out @ 8:1
DeD 6-------------#3 Kajun Karma----------Won @ 2:1----------$6.00
TP 1--------------#5 Party Next Door--------Place @ 1:1
TP 5---------------#6 Wiseacre--------------Out @ 14:1
TP 5---------------#12 Mucino---------------Show @ 7:1
QUOTE]

Bets 18 = $36.00
Back 2 = $10.80
Loss = $25.20
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2023, 10:03 AM   #21
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Picks for 1/28/23

GP 2---------------#2 Mage
GP 2---------------#8 Bourbon Resolve
Aqu 1--------------#3 Paros
OP 1---------------#12 My Moonlight Lady
Aqu 4--------------#8 Bustin Hot
Tam 6--------------#6 Junipero Serra
FG 3----------------#5 Mystic Creed
OP 7----------------#5 Into It
OP 7----------------#10 The Bookkeeper
Aqu 9---------------#1 American Grant
FG 7----------------#7 Slick and Fast
TP 2----------------#11 Yolo Santiago
OP 11--------------#9 Mo Wanna Go
TP 3----------------#8 Velvet
GG 9---------------#9 Lady of the Light
TP 8----------------#9 Ashcroft
DeD 9--------------#8 Prime Choice
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-28-2023, 11:09 AM   #22
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 2, expected wins about 2.72 or less

$1 flat bet return = $0.56., proportional odds bet return =$0.70. not such a bad day as some might think...

hope you have a winning day today
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2023, 12:24 AM   #23
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Results:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Picks for 1/28/23

GP 2---------------#2 Mage-----------------------won @ 11:1 = $25.20
GP 2---------------#8 Bourbon Resolve-----------place @ 3:1
Aqu 1--------------#3 Paros-----------------------out @ 10:1
OP 1---------------#12 My Moonlight Lady-------out @ 22:1
Aqu 4--------------#8 Bustin Hot-----------------won @ 1:1 = $4.10
Tam 6--------------#6 Junipero Serra-----scratched
FG 3----------------#5 Mystic Creed------scratched
OP 7----------------#5 Into It---------------------out @ 27:1
OP 7----------------#10 The Bookkeeper---------out @ 8:1
Aqu 9---------------#1 American Grant-----------out @ 23:1
FG 7----------------#7 Slick and Fast-------------placed @ 2:1
TP 2----------------#11 Yolo Santiago------------out @ 46:1
OP 11--------------#9 Mo Wanna Go-------------out @ 24:1
TP 3----------------#8 Velvet------------scratched
GG 9---------------#9 Lady of the Light----------won @ 2:1 = $6.40
TP 8----------------#9 Ashcroft-------------------out @ 2:1
DeD 9--------------#8 Prime Choice--------------out @ 60:1
Bets = 14 $28.00
Hits = 3---$35.90
Profit =---- $7.90
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2023, 10:52 AM   #24
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Picks for 1/29/23:

GP 1-------#10 Domi
Tam 3------#8 Lively Remark
GP 4--------#2 American Retro
Aqu 4-------#4 Grand Again
OP 2--------#11 Lori's Eyes
OP 2--------#13 Coromandel
Aqu 5-------#3 Lendhercredit
Aqu 5-------#7 Herecomes Scarlett
Sun 2-------#2 Cairo Moon
Sun 2-------#7 Chicago Cat
Tam 6-------#5 Lance's Smile
OP 5--------#2 Sacred Wish
OP 5--------#7 Effertlesslyelegant
GG 1--------#1 Dr. Flash Dancer
SA 3--------#3 Sonoran
GG 3--------#2 Big Stick
GP 11-------#7 Pedigeek
GP 11-------#11 Bel Rosso
SA 6--------#8 Belmont Bill
SA 9--------#8 Thirsty
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2023, 12:00 PM   #25
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 1.82 or less

$1 flat bet return = $1.28., proportional odds bet return =$1.39

hope you have another winning day
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2023, 07:56 PM   #26
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Results

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
Picks for 1/29/23:

GP 1-------#10 Domi-------------------out @ 7:1
Tam 3------#8 Lively Remark----------out @ 25:1
GP 4--------#2 American Retro--------scratched
Aqu 4-------#4 Grand Again-----------scratched
OP 2--------#11 Lori's Eyes------------out @ 18:1
OP 2--------#13 Coromandel----------scratched
Aqu 5-------#3 Lendhercredit---------out @ 7:1
Aqu 5-------#7 Herecomes Scarlett---out @ 21:1
Sun 2-------#2 Cairo Moon------------placed @1/2
Sun 2-------#7 Chicago Cat-----------showed @ 17:1
Tam 6-------#5 Lance's Smile---------out @ 6/5
OP 5--------#2 Sacred Wish-----------scratched
OP 5--------#7 Effertlesslyelegant----won @ 3/5 = $3.20
GG 1--------#1 Dr. Flash Dancer------won @ 5:1 = $13.00
SA 3--------#3 Sonoran---------------placed @ 1/2
GG 3--------#2 Big Stick--------------placed @ 4:1
GP 11-------#7 Pedigeek--------------out @ 8:1
GP 11-------#11 Bel Rosso------------scratched
SA 6--------#8 Belmont Bill-----------out @ 14:1
SA 9--------#8 Thirsty-----------------won @ 3:1 = $8.00
Bets = 15 $30.00
Back = 3 $24.20
Loss = $5.80
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-29-2023, 10:38 PM   #27
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 3
or less

$1 flat bet return = $0.81., proportional odds bet return =$0.825
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-30-2023, 12:14 AM   #28
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 3
or less

$1 flat bet return = $0.81., proportional odds bet return =$0.825
What is proportional odds betting? Is it a form of dutching where you bet more on low odds horses?

I would like a simple explanation because I will be 90 years old in July, and I no longer do complicated.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-30-2023, 11:10 AM   #29
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner View Post
What is proportional odds betting? Is it a form of dutching where you bet more on low odds horses?

I would like a simple explanation because I will be 90 years old in July, and I no longer do complicated.
THE PLAIN VANILLA
1/(ODDS+1)/BOOKING PERCENTAGE

THE BOOKING % IS THE SUM OFF ALL THE 1/(ODDS+1) IN ANY SINGULAR RACE.

HERE IS A RECAP OF SOME OF YOUR RACES. NO CONCLUSIONS DRAWN.

ps YOU WILL HAVE 4 YEARS ON ME


Attached Images
File Type: png ANR TOTALS Screenshot 2023-01-30 104128.png (8.8 KB, 12 views)
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-31-2023, 11:09 AM   #30
Aner
Registered User
 
Aner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
THE PLAIN VANILLA
1/(ODDS+1)/BOOKING PERCENTAGE

THE BOOKING % IS THE SUM OFF ALL THE 1/(ODDS+1) IN ANY SINGULAR RACE.

HERE IS A RECAP OF SOME OF YOUR RACES. NO CONCLUSIONS DRAWN.

ps YOU WILL HAVE 4 YEARS ON ME

Your booking percentage betting plan looks real good, but it is not for me. Years ago I realized it was unlikely I would ever be a good enough handicapper to profit at the races. I can beat the take, but rarely have a winning year. Accordingly, I am a $2 bettor with $10 about my limit per race.

As I understand it, your betting scheme required a much higher investment.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”

― John Pfeiffer
Aner is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:09 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.