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01-26-2023, 10:31 AM
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#16
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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for your interest only.
I compare my flat bet return to a proportional odds return, similar to the attached for your yesterday's race card.
it shows your $1 flat bet return was $0.69, while the proportional odds return was $0.91..
I also create my own odds line and compare those returns to the above.
Continued success
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-26-2023, 06:40 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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With the two scratches in the 6th race at DeD , the #1 Mercer the Racer (ent) no longer qualifies for a bet. I withdraw this pick.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-27-2023, 12:09 AM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 1/26/23
GP 1--------#5 Act a Fool----------------scratched
GP 2--------#1 Valiant Miss--------------place @ 7:1
Mvr 1-------#5 Music City Dancer-------won @ 8/5-----$5.40
Aqu 5-------#4 Zealous Legacy----------scratched
Aqu 5-------#8 Chalky Cat---------------out @ 13:1
GP 9--------#1 Apple Lover--------------out @ 9:1
GP 9--------#11 Take it South-----------show @ 26:1
TP 2--------#3 Beautiful Temple---------out @ 9/2
TP 2--------#11 Live Wire----------------out @ 14:1
DeD 6------#1 Macer the Racer (ent)---no bet
Penn 6-----#1 Grillo----------------------scratched
DeD 9------#8 Big Touch-----------------out @ 12:1
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Bets: 8= $16.00
Wins 1 = $5.40
Loss = $10.60
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-27-2023, 09:01 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 1/27/23
GP 1-------------#1 Neogem
GP 1-------------#11 Amor Salvaje
Lrl 1--------------#5 Celtic Cousen
Tam 3------------#1 Dynamic Storm
Lrl 3--------------#4 Rascally Rebel
GP 4--------------#3 Gentleman Gerry
GP 4--------------#9 Dreamwithinadream
Tam 5------------#2 The Swayze Express
GP 7--------------#7 Starship Sunrise
GP 7---------------#11 Seven P's
Lrl 7---------------#8 No Easy Days
Aqu 8-------------#3 East Coast Girl
GP 10-------------#2 Midnight Getaway
FG 6--------------#7 Midnight Flame
DeD 6-------------#3 Kajun Karma
TP 1--------------#5 Party Next Door
TP 5---------------#6 Wiseacre
TP 5---------------#12 Mucino
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-28-2023, 12:51 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
[QUOTE=Aner;2854991]Picks for 1/27/23
GP 1-------------#1 Neogem-------------------Place @ 8:1
GP 1-------------#11 Amor Salvaje------------Out @ 5:1
Lrl 1--------------#5 Celtic Cousen------------Place @ 4/5
Tam 3------------#1 Dynamic Storm----------Out @ 17:1
Lrl 3--------------#4 Rascally Rebel-----------Out @ 70:1
GP 4--------------#3 Gentleman Gerry--------Out @ 19:1
GP 4--------------#9 Dreamwithinadream----Out @ 16:1
Tam 5------------#2 The Swayze Express----Show @ 9/2
GP 7--------------#7 Starship Sunrise-------Out @ 28:1
GP 7---------------#11 Seven P's-------------Out @ 17:1
Lrl 7---------------#8 No Easy Days----------Place @ 3/2
Aqu 8-------------#3 East Coast Girl---------Won @ 7/5---------$4.80
GP 10-------------#2 Midnight Getaway-----Show @ 3:1
FG 6--------------#7 Midnight Flame--------Out @ 8:1
DeD 6-------------#3 Kajun Karma----------Won @ 2:1----------$6.00
TP 1--------------#5 Party Next Door--------Place @ 1:1
TP 5---------------#6 Wiseacre--------------Out @ 14:1
TP 5---------------#12 Mucino---------------Show @ 7:1
QUOTE]
Bets 18 = $36.00
Back 2 = $10.80
Loss = $25.20
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-28-2023, 10:03 AM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 1/28/23
GP 2---------------#2 Mage
GP 2---------------#8 Bourbon Resolve
Aqu 1--------------#3 Paros
OP 1---------------#12 My Moonlight Lady
Aqu 4--------------#8 Bustin Hot
Tam 6--------------#6 Junipero Serra
FG 3----------------#5 Mystic Creed
OP 7----------------#5 Into It
OP 7----------------#10 The Bookkeeper
Aqu 9---------------#1 American Grant
FG 7----------------#7 Slick and Fast
TP 2----------------#11 Yolo Santiago
OP 11--------------#9 Mo Wanna Go
TP 3----------------#8 Velvet
GG 9---------------#9 Lady of the Light
TP 8----------------#9 Ashcroft
DeD 9--------------#8 Prime Choice
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-28-2023, 11:09 AM
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#22
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 2, expected wins about 2.72 or less
$1 flat bet return = $0.56., proportional odds bet return =$0.70. not such a bad day as some might think...
hope you have a winning day today
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-29-2023, 12:24 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 1/28/23
GP 2---------------#2 Mage-----------------------won @ 11:1 = $25.20
GP 2---------------#8 Bourbon Resolve-----------place @ 3:1
Aqu 1--------------#3 Paros-----------------------out @ 10:1
OP 1---------------#12 My Moonlight Lady-------out @ 22:1
Aqu 4--------------#8 Bustin Hot-----------------won @ 1:1 = $4.10
Tam 6--------------#6 Junipero Serra-----scratched
FG 3----------------#5 Mystic Creed------scratched
OP 7----------------#5 Into It---------------------out @ 27:1
OP 7----------------#10 The Bookkeeper---------out @ 8:1
Aqu 9---------------#1 American Grant-----------out @ 23:1
FG 7----------------#7 Slick and Fast-------------placed @ 2:1
TP 2----------------#11 Yolo Santiago------------out @ 46:1
OP 11--------------#9 Mo Wanna Go-------------out @ 24:1
TP 3----------------#8 Velvet------------scratched
GG 9---------------#9 Lady of the Light----------won @ 2:1 = $6.40
TP 8----------------#9 Ashcroft-------------------out @ 2:1
DeD 9--------------#8 Prime Choice--------------out @ 60:1
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Bets = 14 $28.00
Hits = 3---$35.90
Profit =---- $7.90
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-29-2023, 10:52 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Picks for 1/29/23:
GP 1-------#10 Domi
Tam 3------#8 Lively Remark
GP 4--------#2 American Retro
Aqu 4-------#4 Grand Again
OP 2--------#11 Lori's Eyes
OP 2--------#13 Coromandel
Aqu 5-------#3 Lendhercredit
Aqu 5-------#7 Herecomes Scarlett
Sun 2-------#2 Cairo Moon
Sun 2-------#7 Chicago Cat
Tam 6-------#5 Lance's Smile
OP 5--------#2 Sacred Wish
OP 5--------#7 Effertlesslyelegant
GG 1--------#1 Dr. Flash Dancer
SA 3--------#3 Sonoran
GG 3--------#2 Big Stick
GP 11-------#7 Pedigeek
GP 11-------#11 Bel Rosso
SA 6--------#8 Belmont Bill
SA 9--------#8 Thirsty
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-29-2023, 12:00 PM
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#25
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 1.82 or less
$1 flat bet return = $1.28., proportional odds bet return =$1.39
hope you have another winning day
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-29-2023, 07:56 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Results
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
Picks for 1/29/23:
GP 1-------#10 Domi-------------------out @ 7:1
Tam 3------#8 Lively Remark----------out @ 25:1
GP 4--------#2 American Retro--------scratched
Aqu 4-------#4 Grand Again-----------scratched
OP 2--------#11 Lori's Eyes------------out @ 18:1
OP 2--------#13 Coromandel----------scratched
Aqu 5-------#3 Lendhercredit---------out @ 7:1
Aqu 5-------#7 Herecomes Scarlett---out @ 21:1
Sun 2-------#2 Cairo Moon------------placed @1/2
Sun 2-------#7 Chicago Cat-----------showed @ 17:1
Tam 6-------#5 Lance's Smile---------out @ 6/5
OP 5--------#2 Sacred Wish-----------scratched
OP 5--------#7 Effertlesslyelegant----won @ 3/5 = $3.20
GG 1--------#1 Dr. Flash Dancer------won @ 5:1 = $13.00
SA 3--------#3 Sonoran---------------placed @ 1/2
GG 3--------#2 Big Stick--------------placed @ 4:1
GP 11-------#7 Pedigeek--------------out @ 8:1
GP 11-------#11 Bel Rosso------------scratched
SA 6--------#8 Belmont Bill-----------out @ 14:1
SA 9--------#8 Thirsty-----------------won @ 3:1 = $8.00
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Bets = 15 $30.00
Back = 3 $24.20
Loss = $5.80
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-29-2023, 10:38 PM
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#27
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 3
or less
$1 flat bet return = $0.81., proportional odds bet return =$0.825
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-30-2023, 12:14 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
a few notes about yesterday's return.
base on the information provided. number wins = 3, expected wins about 3
or less
$1 flat bet return = $0.81., proportional odds bet return =$0.825
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What is proportional odds betting? Is it a form of dutching where you bet more on low odds horses?
I would like a simple explanation because I will be 90 years old in July, and I no longer do complicated.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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01-30-2023, 11:10 AM
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#29
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
What is proportional odds betting? Is it a form of dutching where you bet more on low odds horses?
I would like a simple explanation because I will be 90 years old in July, and I no longer do complicated.
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THE PLAIN VANILLA
1/(ODDS+1)/BOOKING PERCENTAGE
THE BOOKING % IS THE SUM OFF ALL THE 1/(ODDS+1) IN ANY SINGULAR RACE.
HERE IS A RECAP OF SOME OF YOUR RACES. NO CONCLUSIONS DRAWN.
ps YOU WILL HAVE 4 YEARS ON ME
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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01-31-2023, 11:09 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
THE PLAIN VANILLA
1/(ODDS+1)/BOOKING PERCENTAGE
THE BOOKING % IS THE SUM OFF ALL THE 1/(ODDS+1) IN ANY SINGULAR RACE.
HERE IS A RECAP OF SOME OF YOUR RACES. NO CONCLUSIONS DRAWN.
ps YOU WILL HAVE 4 YEARS ON ME
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Your booking percentage betting plan looks real good, but it is not for me. Years ago I realized it was unlikely I would ever be a good enough handicapper to profit at the races. I can beat the take, but rarely have a winning year. Accordingly, I am a $2 bettor with $10 about my limit per race.
As I understand it, your betting scheme required a much higher investment.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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