Question for you guys -

[Half Smoke]

______________


the 9th race at Aqueduct today

the fave - the 5 horse Patient Capital went off at 5/2 - he got 2nd

he looked much tougher than the others to me - I thought he would be even money



did that possibly happen because it was the last race____?______bettors way down looking to shots to get even_____?


thanks



.

[ScottJ]

Saturday's Aqueduct Race 9 was "interesting" for a number of reasons.

1. Take a look at the Pick-6 Will Pays if you still can. All of the horses were covered ($55,000) with the exception of Patient Capital () and your winner, Little Demon (). These two were both only paying $22,000 in the Pick-6 except that ...

2. Little Demon was 15-1 while Patient Capital was 5-2. Little Demon took the lead right from the gate and during the running looked solid every step of the mile. Although Patient Capital tried, the 4yo was no match for the ....

3. Penn National shipper? So, there had to be a great training job going on behind the scenes at the Jacobson barn to get this one ready.

As for the remainder, Watasha () was awful (done after the opening half), Money Supply () was the bet against horse and ran just like Money Supply always does, and Prince of Pharoahs () ran without any plan whatsoever which was no surprise with the pilot. Maybe Three Jokers () ran the best final quarter, but the front pair were just too much here.

To your question, should Patient Capital have been shorter than 5-2. Perhaps, but there were many front runners that could have hurt the race dynamics for him which might explain the price. Although those dynamics did not evolve as expected (by me at least), the winner was way beyond my ouija board.

[Profesor]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

______________


the 9th race at Aqueduct today

the fave - the 5 horse Patient Capital went off at 5/2 - he got 2nd

he looked much tougher than the others to me - I thought he would be even money



did that possibly happen because it was the last race____?______bettors way down looking to shots to get even_____?


thanks



.

He was not as tough or as fast as you think I’m surprised he run as well as he did as he was off a 4 point new top t the 3-10-11 just as good

[Nitro]

In my opinion entries #5 and #11 were proportionately over bet. Hence the resulting low tote values. The analysis doesn’t discriminate individual significance based on an entry’s odds. It’s calculations are based on the flow of money derived from all the available betting pools combined.

As some might recall I don’t do any form of handicapping to determine playable selections. The sophisticated real time tote analysis I use routinely points to the entries of interest. This is accomplished by comparing the individual values generated for each entry with the value of PAR. This is done at specific time intervals during a typical betting cycle. Those 3 entries whose value is closest to PAR are considered playable if their combined ODDS produce an acceptable profit margin.

As mentioned previously the Dutching margin must equal or exceed my established Hit frequency %. There is never a need to concern yourself with the take-out % because the ODDS shown already reflect the take-out. In other words, WYSIWYG in terms of a dollar return.

Tote Analysis for Race #9 – Aqueduct – Sat 1-14-23
Note only the final interval @ 3 mins to post is shown

PP	M/L	4thIn Win	Place	Show	PP	4thIn FIN
POS	ODDS	ODDS	206365	70,154	37,497	PAR	109	
2	8.0 	10.0 	14,953	5,604	2,880	2	116	
3	3.5 	3.0 	39,363	13,124	8,140	3	124	5
4	15.0 	31.0 	5,391	2,276	1,625	4	181	
5	2.5 	2.5 	49,529	15,824	7,283	5	88	2
7	15.0 	26.0 	6,312	2,301	2,099	7	200	4
8	12.0 	7.0 	20,246	7,771	3,401	8	101	3
9	10.0 	7.0 	19,758	6,422	3,870	9	118	
10	8.0 	15.0 	10,750	4,266	1,994	10	111	1
11	5.0 	3.0 	40,059	12,563	6,202	11	93	
1	0.0 	SCR	SCR	SCR	SCR	1	######	
6	0.0 	SCR	SCR	SCR	SCR	6	######	

As shown in the above example only the following entries are of interest:
#2 @ 10/1, #8 @ 7/1, and #10 @ 15/1

The Dutching Calculator indicates a profit margin of 259% which was a definite play.

	LOW	MID	HI	BET	PRF	PRF %
Odds	7.0	10.0	15.0			
Ea Ret	$16	$22	$32			
Ea Bet	$32	$23	$16	$71	$185	259%
TotRet	$256	$256	$256			

Overall Race Results
Winner #10 - $32.20
• $2.00 EXACTA 10-5 $108.50
• $2.00 TRIFECTA 10-5-8 $727.00
• $2.00 SUPERFECTA 10-5-8-7 $5,688.00

[Half Smoke]

_____________


okay, so you guys don't agree that he should have been bet down

that's fine

but what about the other part of the question

do you think it's possible that in the last race of a big card the shots are often overbet even more than usual because so many way down are trying to get even? - not just in that one race

I'm pretty sure you will say no - that that is not correct

but still I'm curious


.

[porchy44]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

______________


the 9th race at Aqueduct today

the fave - the 5 horse Patient Capital went off at 5/2 - he got 2nd

he looked much tougher than the others to me - I thought he would be even money



did that possibly happen because it was the last race____?______bettors way down looking to shots to get even_____?


thanks



.

It's called "ice on the board". It is one of those mysteries of Horse racing betting. A mystery is something we know something about, but will never know everything about.

[shout1966]

Originally Posted by Nitro

In my opinion entries #5 and #11 were proportionately over bet. Hence the resulting low tote values. The analysis doesn’t discriminate individual significance based on an entry’s odds. It’s calculations are based on the flow of money derived from all the available betting pools combined.

As some might recall I don’t do any form of handicapping to determine playable selections. The sophisticated real time tote analysis I use routinely points to the entries of interest. This is accomplished by comparing the individual values generated for each entry with the value of PAR. This is done at specific time intervals during a typical betting cycle. Those 3 entries whose value is closest to PAR are considered playable if their combined ODDS produce an acceptable profit margin.

As mentioned previously the Dutching margin must equal or exceed my established Hit frequency %. There is never a need to concern yourself with the take-out % because the ODDS shown already reflect the take-out. In other words, WYSIWYG in terms of a dollar return.

Tote Analysis for Race #9 – Aqueduct – Sat 1-14-23
Note only the final interval @ 3 mins to post is shown

PP    M/L    4thIn Win    Place    Show    PP    4thIn FIN
POS    ODDS    ODDS    206365    70,154    37,497    PAR    109    
2    8.0     10.0     14,953    5,604    2,880    2    116    
3    3.5     3.0     39,363    13,124    8,140    3    124    5
4    15.0     31.0     5,391    2,276    1,625    4    181    
5    2.5     2.5     49,529    15,824    7,283    5    88    2
7    15.0     26.0     6,312    2,301    2,099    7    200    4
8    12.0     7.0     20,246    7,771    3,401    8    101    3
9    10.0     7.0     19,758    6,422    3,870    9    118    
10    8.0     15.0     10,750    4,266    1,994    10    111    1
11    5.0     3.0     40,059    12,563    6,202    11    93    
1    0.0     SCR    SCR    SCR    SCR    1    ######    
6    0.0     SCR    SCR    SCR    SCR    6    ######    

As shown in the above example only the following entries are of interest:
#2 @ 10/1, #8 @ 7/1, and #10 @ 15/1

The Dutching Calculator indicates a profit margin of 259% which was a definite play.

    LOW    MID    HI    BET    PRF    PRF %
Odds    7.0    10.0    15.0            
Ea Ret    $16    $22    $32            
Ea Bet    $32    $23    $16    $71    $185    259%
TotRet    $256    $256    $256            

Overall Race Results
Winner #10 - $32.20
• $2.00 EXACTA 10-5 $108.50
• $2.00 TRIFECTA 10-5-8 $727.00
• $2.00 SUPERFECTA 10-5-8-7 $5,688.00

no disrespect but funny how these charts are only shown 4 hours after the race is run and not before the race.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by shout1966

no disrespect but funny how these charts are only shown 4 hours after the race is run and not before the race.

Perhaps if the original questions about the betting on the race were posted before the race went off I might have had a chance to post my tote chart earlier as well. My response was simply to help identify the actual betting scenario from a different perspective after the fact. Sorry if my reply didn’t conform to anyone’s standards of authenticity.
.
.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

_____________


okay, so you guys don't agree that he should have been bet down

that's fine

but what about the other part of the question

do you think it's possible that in the last race of a big card the shots are often overbet even more than usual because so many way down are trying to get even? - not just in that one race

I'm pretty sure you will say no - that that is not correct

but still I'm curious


.

I've always thought you can get a point or two higher with the favorite in the last race.

For that very reason. It's hard to get even on an 8/5 shot.

Remember most players don't play every day like us.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

I've always thought you can get a point or two higher with the favorite in the last race.

For that very reason. It's hard to get even on an 8/5 shot.

i used to notice that for years, not lately though. today, with all the stay at home bettors, they can just go to a different track. if you ever stay up late and watch Fanduel network, formerly TVG, you will see racing from anywhere in the world going on that the adw's are taking bets on. if you are a sports bettor, you can also bet on basketball games from Australia, or ping pong from China or Korean baseball all hours of the day or night.

what we really need to do is open up gamblers' anonymous centers.

[SBD400]

In a 9 horse nw1x competitive allowance race like this one, a horse like that not going off at even money. Would have to be a rising star moving his way through allowance conditions or a smaller field with top connections that looks great on paper to go off at even money.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

______________


the 9th race at Aqueduct today

the fave - the 5 horse Patient Capital went off at 5/2 - he got 2nd

he looked much tougher than the others to me - I thought he would be even money



did that possibly happen because it was the last race____?______bettors way down looking to shots to get even_____?


thanks



.

Even factoring in relatively larger fields that mnr tries to card in the finale, favorites definitely trend higher than in earlier races of similar quality. Having observed this several years back, I did confirm it from a significant sample size and dubbed it "the even-money minimum," meaning that no matter how cinchy a horse appears in the night-cap, an odds-on closing price is unlikely.

Like yourself, I attribute this to losing players eschewing utter chalk in attempting to get even on the card.

I would, however, add that as $5 and $10 dollar win bettors become increasingly rare and "around the clock" hard-cores more and more dominate the pool, outright favorites take more money in the finale.

[Sheffwed]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Even factoring in relatively larger fields that mnr tries to card in the finale, favorites definitely trend higher than in earlier races of similar quality. Having observed this several years back, I did confirm it from a significant sample size and dubbed it "the even-money minimum," meaning that no matter how cinchy a horse appears in the night-cap, an odds-on closing price is unlikely.

Like yourself, I attribute this to losing players eschewing utter chalk in attempting to get even on the card.

I would, however, add that as $5 and $10 dollar win bettors become increasingly rare and "around the clock" hard-cores more and more dominate the pool, outright favorites take more money in the finale.

I've noticed this with NY tracks over the years as well - bettors tapped out etc

Shhhh, it's supposed to be a secret...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I would, however, add that as $5 and $10 dollar win bettors become increasingly rare and "around the clock" hard-cores more and more dominate the pool, outright favorites take more money in the finale.

I’m not sure about the $5 and $10 win-bettors becoming “increasingly rare”. I’ve noticed that the $100 win-bettors of old are betting $5 and $10 these days…

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Like yourself, I attribute this to losing players eschewing utter chalk in attempting to get even on the card.

I would, however, add that as $5 and $10 dollar win bettors become increasingly rare and "around the clock" hard-cores more and more dominate the pool, outright favorites take more money in the finale.

Over 50 years ago while analyzing the betting on several races at AQU, my Calculus professor informed us about the very same "last race" mental betting scenario. While I was able to understand the Math, I completely ignored the most important factor when it comes to the psychological aspects of the betting population. Fortunately, a little over 20 years ago I came across an analysis system that completely relies on betting psychology and how it impacts the results of all races. By monitoring money flow it also conveniently recognizes and discriminates between the various wagering levels during a typical betting cycle.