ROI data for individual bettors - percentile, etc.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Johnny V

Dave, thanks for posting that video. I encourage everyone to watch it. It is only 9:43 long but it took me a lot longer than that to watch/listen to what was being said. I found myself replaying certain parts over because it really hit home and I wanted to fully digest the scope and ramifications of what was being said and how it applied and still applies to me.

(Thread drift coming here.)

When I said LIFE CHANGER, I really meant it.

I am a long-time practitioner of self-hypnosis and a certified hypnotherapist. (Never had any desire to practice.)

When I ran into this video, it hit me right between the eyes.

I took what Andrew Huberman said and "installed" it the very same day. (About 4 or 5 weeks ago.)

The changes have been amazing.

Since then, I have gone back to using my home gym, and now wake up fully excited to work out. Not only am I lifting multiple times per week, lightly back on the water rower, but am doing pushups, leg lifts & squats on the vibration plate 2-4 times per day.

Most important, for the first time in 25 years I am back to martial arts - albeit looking like a somewhat pitiful white belt. LOL

It all stems from the little mantra I installed: "The Battle is the Reward."

[steveb]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

I'd like to clarify a couple of things about my last post.

Probably nobody will resonate with this but I'm going to give it a try anyway.
____________
Understand that these are all estimates with zero corroborative evidence.

1. I believe 4 out of 1000 race goers are long-term profitable.

2. That includes ALL horse bettors; everyone who bets at least a handful of times per year.

3. My belief is that the more often one plays, the greater the likelihood that they get into that 0.4%.

4. I also believe the same for those who buy books, training videos, software, subscribe to data/PDF services, etc.

5. I believe that the players that only bet on the Biggest Race Days are the epitome of those who don't have a chance.

3 and 5 are undoubtedly correct.
3 i don't know what % win, but those that churn, churn ,churn will generally do best
5 especially good for those whose bet size is only limited by the pool size.
and all that mug money involved.
and i would add that most of the winners, don't necessarily give a fig about horse racing.
and the same people would probably win at whatever their chosen churn may be.
i think that probably many of the winners are doing it on various sports.
after all, they are all basically the same thing.....statistics and probability.

[romankoz]

David says
BTW, I've never known a single "ever so patient, lay-in-the-weeds, make 3 bets a week" player who was a professional. The pools just won't handle making 150 bets a year to generate (say) $250,000. (in today's economic dollars)
RK replies
I understand your reasoning and going on what I know about USA betting it makes sense. In Australia you can have three bets a week because there are so many corporate bookmaker options plus 3 lots of Parimutuel.

It seems to me a National Pool would solve liquidity problems but trying to get even JUST two states agreeing to a merger would be a nightmare I would imagine.

[romankoz]

I would agree with everything you say David. An excellent summary all on this forum should copy somehow and digest.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by romankoz

David says
BTW, I've never known a single "ever so patient, lay-in-the-weeds, make 3 bets a week" player who was a professional. The pools just won't handle making 150 bets a year to generate (say) $250,000. (in today's economic dollars)
RK replies
I understand your reasoning and going on what I know about USA betting it makes sense. In Australia you can have three bets a week because there are so many corporate bookmaker options plus 3 lots of Parimutuel.

It seems to me a National Pool would solve liquidity problems but trying to get even JUST two states agreeing to a merger would be a nightmare I would imagine.

Technically, we already have a national pool.

When you make a bet, ultimately, it co-mingles at the physical track; in a single pool.

(Obviously, you know your stuff about AUS racing. )

So, to make $250k in the US ($about $360k AUD) with a +10% ROI would demand an annual handle of $2.5m USD. Dividing that by 150 bets = $16k per bet.

How about some math whiz figure out how big the pool would have to be to accept a $16,000 bet on a horse that is 5/1 and not have it become the favorite?

BTW, in Japan, they have that now, so again, your point is well-made. Probably HK as well; doubt that you could do that in AUS, though, as a $24,000 bet would be difficult to make - at least in the TABS.

Bookmakers everywhere are smart enough to track their players. If they don't they go out of business. Doubt that fixed-odds wagering is a real viable option.

Would love to hear that there are new mechanisms for that, if you know of any.

The betting exchange concept was destined to fail in the US because we (i.e. US players) are in love with exotics that have 3 or more legs. Really not feasible for an exchange because of the permutation of tickets.

What makes AUS, JAP, an HK so viable is that the horses are concentrated in just a few tracks.

As the number of race tracks continue to shrink - which, sadly, it will - the handle will probably stay the same or possibly even rise.

We'd likely see field sizes double or even triple, which raises the odds on the winners, of course.

My guess is that the US could achieve those standards of handle when there are no more than 8 tracks running per day.

It would also be helpful if the tracks could re-think their position on takeouts so as to become competitive with sports betting. (Not exactly a new idea.)

[Beton]

Ten years ago I worked with a pro here in Aus. He had been making money about $150k per year for about 10 years. He worked at punting 14 hours per day. He wanted a bettor outcome. Two other guys and myself helped to automate his process and analyze the data and test it. He broke data down to regions IE Sydney metro, NSW country was broken up into provincial tracks and the country tracks that fed the provincial tracks. This compared horses that raced against each other rather than all the horses.



In the end we had a lot of data and some good paying systems. He would get the Wizard form and link it into the spreadsheet and the likely winners were highlighted. This made money but not the money he had been making. Thus it became an aid to his previous method. Most bets were not bets until a few minutes before a race. He still worked 14 hours per day at punting. His return jumped as he identified a few more horses that did not pay their way.



I was left waiting at my computer for conformation of selections seconds before a race. This was not my way of living when I could earn more in a different way. I prefer to work and then play. He had a sliding scale of bets dependent on calculated risk. Most bets were $2000-2500 straight out for a win.

[romankoz]

Dave says
doubt that you could do that in AUS, though, as a $24,000 bet would be difficult to make - at least in the TABS.
RK replies
In Aus spreading $24K across one TAB would most times cause severe parimutuel changes.
Anyone betting $24K would spread their bets across the bookmakers we have at $1k a bet or a tad more with some so perhaps having 20 accounts would the way to go but you would also need a big betting bank to cover all 20 accounts.

[ranchwest]

It also becomes a logistical issue of how to actually get it done.

[romankoz]

Yes, Ranchwest, most certainly but if you are betting $24K perhaps a small team betting for you is an answer.
For instance, I (just me) could bet $2-3k over 3 bookmakers and be paid $50 to do it. Initially the bet could be sent by email via a group posting (distribution list) and all the big punter needs is 6/7 trusted people.
I realise with your TAB only system different tactics like drip feeding amounts in $X lots rather than the whole $24 in one hit might be an option???

[romankoz]

Beton says

He broke data down to regions IE Sydney metro, NSW country was broken up into provincial tracks and the country tracks that fed the provincial tracks. This compared horses that raced against each other rather than all the horses.

RK replies: It's a big job trying to work out all the horses thus his approach had a stack of logic. Here in Victoria you have your pockets of racing i.e. West Vic around Warrnambool, Hamilton, Terang, Eastern Coast heading towards Sydney such as Sale and North East like Wangaratta Benalla Albury. Makes sense to know the ins and outs of each.


Beton says
His return jumped as he identified a few more horses that did not pay their way.
RK replies:
Not only horses but trainers and jockeys as well. There's no doubt some trainers in some areas are above the locals. Peter Gelagotis stands out to me around Sale etc and Ciaron Maher around Warr, Terang.
There would be similar situations across the USA, surely.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by romankoz

Yes, Ranchwest, most certainly but if you are betting $24K perhaps a small team betting for you is an answer.
For instance, I (just me) could bet $2-3k over 3 bookmakers and be paid $50 to do it. Initially the bet could be sent by email via a group posting (distribution list) and all the big punter needs is 6/7 trusted people.
I realise with your TAB only system different tactics like drip feeding amounts in $X lots rather than the whole $24 in one hit might be an option???

If you're paying for a "small team" you're gonna need to increase bet size by 25-50% in order to cover the cost.

That will cause you to hire more team, and the cost goes up again.

Ranchwest:
It also becomes a logistical issue of how to actually get it done.

Ranch makes a viable point.

There is the issue of "beard management."

• Placing bets for themselves.
• Sharing/selling your picks with others.
• Verifying the bets.
• Flat out stealing.

All of these dilute your profits.

Going to need to upsize the bets to cover the losses.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by romankoz

Dave says
doubt that you could do that in AUS, though, as a $24,000 bet would be difficult to make - at least in the TABS.
RK replies
In Aus spreading $24K across one TAB would most times cause severe parimutuel changes.
Anyone betting $24K would spread their bets across the bookmakers we have at $1k a bet or a tad more with some so perhaps having 20 accounts would the way to go but you would also need a big betting bank to cover all 20 accounts.

Why don't you just hit the QUOTE button (like I just did on your reply), instead of typing out "Dave says" and "RK replies"????

Just a helpful hint to make your experience (and others) here more pleasant.

[romankoz]

[QUOTE=PaceAdvantage;2851877]Why don't you just hit the QUOTE button (like I just did on your reply), instead of typing out "Dave says" and "RK replies"????

Just a helpful hint to make your experience (and others) here more pleasant.[/Q

RK: Ok: did not know that: will do: apologies: it's the way I am used to replying.
Thanks for the heads up