2019-2020 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 8-11-3 W/ 2-12-6 ……..5:50 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T... 8-11-3 W/ 2-12-6 ……..5:50 AM

8-1-14-11– Dutch Win 53% Profit Margin-Passed / Not much action on the LS Placer


It turned out to be another fun and profitable card. 1 out 2 Dutch Win bets provided an overall profit margin of 0% (Broke even). But with limited Dutching there were some very nice the Verticals with multiple Quinellas and Triples with excellent value.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Happy Valley. September 11, 2019… 3rd race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 81 Degrees Clear Wind: 0 mph.

Post time: 7.15am ET, 4.15 am PT. Rail: Course “B”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190911_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings


Live Video Feed:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221


Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Raichu (3-1) He draws the rail and picks up Moreira but comes from a barn that just doesn’t get many winners and most of them are going to be repeat winners. Three to one on a runner who is 1 for 35 in Hong Kong, well I will try and beat him every day.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *532 (Winners: 4th, 5th & 6th, Second: 1st)
Race 2 After Me (37-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
None

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
None

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 7 Chefano (6-1) After finding Class 2 and going 9 furlongs a little much for him Moore was allowed to enter him in Class 3 going 1650 at the downtown track where he had his best out in his short career in Hong Kong. Soon after the start, he was bumped by Bear Again which forced him back into All You Know, it didn't cost him any positioning but it does take something out them in the energy department eventually. In the first turn he settled in mid-pack two wide while the eventual winner My Ally was loose on the lead setting a very slow pace for this class level. With 450 (mid-turn at Happy Valley) to go Zac asked him to get into the race and made a very nice run in the stretch to close within 2 lengths of the winner but with the slow pace it was too much for him to make up. He looks like a legitimate Class 3 runner and with a rating of 77 after this that's where he'll be again next time out, just hopefully he'll get some pace to run at. Unlucky at the draw getting the 11 post with the short run into the first turn may be his downfall here today.

Race 8 Jumbo Hapiness (9-2) Had been away from the track for eight months and leading rider Zac Purton thought enough of him to get on for Casper Fownes going 5 furlongs at the downtown track. He broke well and soon found himself racing in the rear of the field while Forza Angel and Mr Right were fighting it out for domination of the early lead. After saving ground in the turn he carried his speed to the wire only to be beaten by the high weight favourite Hong Kong Bet who won under a stranglehold under Teetan.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 1 Dream Warriors (7-2)
Race 5 Zero Hedge (5-1)
Race 8 Frustrated (7-1)

Key Plays:
Race 5 Zero Hedge (5-1)
Race 8 Jumbo Hapiness (9-2)

Longshot:
Race 6 Joyful Heart (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value.
There are 8 races at Happy Valley all to be run on Turf:
(from top Class to bottom) – (1)-Class-2, (2)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined odds values of the selected entries add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...3-6-2 W/ 5-1………...7:15 AM

R#2- 1000M C5 (5F)T……...4-5-11 W/ 9-3-1….…7:45 AM

R#3- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T...5-4-10 W/ 1-6-9…...8:15 AM

R#4- 1650M C2 (8.25F)T…..1-5-9 W/ 2-4…….......8:50 AM

R#5- 1000M C4 (5F)T……...3-5-12 W/ 9-10-8……9:20 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T ….….10-9-5 W/ 6-2-3…......9:50 AM

R#7– 1650M C3 (8.25F)T ..10-12-1 W/ 11-2-9..10:20 AM

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T….….4-5-7 W/ 6-9-11 …....10:55 AM
.

[Nitro]

RESULTS: Happy Valley Wed - 9/11/19

R#1- 1650M C4 (8.25F)T...3-6-2 W/ 5-1………...7:15 AM
4-9-6-7– Dutch Loss 110% Profit Margin/

R#2- 1000M C5 (5F)T……...4-5-11 W/ 9-3-1….…7:45 AM
4-5-11-10– Dutch Win 112% Profit Margin / $68.10 Quinella & $616.20 Triple COLD

R#3- 1650M C5 (8.25F)T...5-4-10 W/ 1-6-9…...8:15 AM
10-2-5-8– Dutch Win 75% Profit Margin /

R#4- 1650M C2 (8.25F)T…..1-5-9 W/ 2-4……....8:50 AM
5-6-9-7– Dutch Win 13% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#5- 1000M C4 (5F)T……...3-5-12 W/ 9-10-8……9:20 AM
7-3-8-2– Dutch Loss 32% Profit Margin - Passed /

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T ….….10-8-5 W/ 6-2-1…....9:50 AM
11-4-10-1– Dutch Loss 82% Profit Margin /

R#7– 1650M C3 (8.25F)T ..10-11-1 W/ 12-2-9..10:20 AM
11-2-10-8– Dutch Win 50% Profit Margin / $53.30 Quinella & $287.60 Triple

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T….….4-5-7 W/ 6-9-11 …....10:55 AM
7-11-4-9– Dutch Win 54% Profit Margin / $28.10 Quinella & $322.60 Triple ($2,063.00 Quartet)

It was another fun and profitable card.
The Dutch Win bets produced an O.A. Profit margin of 48% and was hit from winning 4 of the 6 playable races.
Also hit were a few good valued Quinellas and Triples.

[bob60566]

Nitro

Well done starting to get feel for this and the nice payoffs most enjoyable racing and the pool sizes are something else.

Bob

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 8, 2019
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None

Horses to watch for list:
Such A Happiness (57) He encountered serious trouble in his last race before the summer break after an easy win in June at this same level and distance at Sha Tin. Today Yung was able to pick up Moreira for the ride drawing the 6 post in a small field of 9 (smaller fields are common early in the season) and was bet down to the even money chalk. He broke well but soon afterwards Joao grabbed his head and took him to the rear of the field, unfortunately at the same time Teetan on California Legend was able to grab an uncontested early lead and was eventually allowed to set a very leisurely pace for the class. After Moreira was able to get him to the rail he pushed him a little closer to the front settling him mid-pack on the backside, when they entered the stretch Joao moved him out to the four path but was unable to chase down the lone frontrunner while not being overly exerted. He didn't pick up any points in the rating system so he'll be allowed to run in Class 4 again next time out, hopefully he will get some pace to run at.

Witness Hunter (56) He threw in a real clunker in his last race of the previous season at the downtown track after being forced to run wide without any cover while being very rank and making a move in the middle of the race. Today he picked up Zac Purton for the trip but the computer gave him the 11 post in a field of 14, at the break he took a slight step to the right and then was bumped back straight by Impeccable Fellow, after all that Zac settled him mid-pack two wide heading into the turn. After drifting to the four path entering the stretch he quickly made his way to the front and looked like it was going to be his day, he just couldn't muster the needed kick to get by the winner Destin, he was passed by second place runner City Legend with 100 to go and was wrapped up after that and galloped out to the wire. Should have more in the tank after this effort and hopefully is treated more kindly by the draw computer.

Cool Team (77) Closed to run ninth in the season finale last year only beaten by a length and a quarter to Star Performance going 7 at Sha Tin, now right back in the same conditions but a little easier field and a major improvement in riders going from Callan to Purton which is always worth a couple lengths at the wire. He broke well and was settle in the third flight down the backside two wide going into the turn, at the top of the lane he took himself right to the lead without any encouragement form Zac. Once he took command of the race he looked like he started to wait on others drifting in and out in the stretch but he galloped out to the wire with plenty in the tank for another go at Class 3 again after picking up 7 rating points in the effort.

Horse to avoid next time out:
Big Time Baby (92) Was all out to get to the wire first while getting a 7 pound allowance over second place runner Elusive State, playing he bounces like a basketball next time out.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. September 15, 2019… 4th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees 50% of rain Wind: ENE 5mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “C+3”, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20190915_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feeds:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 5 California Guncho (2-1) Had an easy win in his last against Class 4 runners but he is a perfect example of ‘The Peter Principle,’ he does not care for the rise to Class 3. He’s had 15 tries and has yet to find the winner’s circle in it and Tony Cruz’s record at 1,200 metres at Sha Tin is nothing to write home about.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *754 (Winners: 3rd & 7th, Second: 1st & 4th)
Race 7 Victory Power (3-1)

Race *739 (Winners: 2nd & 6th, Second: 4th & 12th)
Race 8 Clear Choice (9-1)

Race *750 (Winners: 1st, 3rd & 12th) Class 2
Race 10 Cot Campbell (33-1)

Race *797 (Winners: 9th & 10th, Second: 5th)
Race 10 Unicornbaby (8-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 9 Styling City (9-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 1 Gorgeous Again (10-1)
Race 8 Buddies (2-1)
Race 9 Raging Storm (5-1)
Race 9 Racing Fighter (4-1)

Horses for courses running tonight:
None

Distance specialists running tonight:
Race 9 Racing Fighter (4-1)
Race 9 Team Spirit (33-1)

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 1 Crown Avenue (even) His best efforts have been on the dirt with three wins and a second out of 10 tries, but Yip threw him out on the last day of the year at Sha Tin trying to steal a win while he was still in decent form. Unfortunately for Yip and Callan he dwelt at the start losing a few lengths to the field, then around 400 metres from the gate on the backside he became a little rank for around 150 metres. Entering the stretch he looked full of run but was very hesitant on splitting Smart Rocket and Gorgeous Again while the eventual high weight winner Defining Moment was making his winning move, he finished even with him after room became available.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
Race 6 Speedy Missile (30-1)
Race 9 Hello Beauty (6-1)

Key Plays:
Race 9 Raging Storm (5-1)
Race 10 Happy Fun (8-5)

Longshots:
Race 6 Speedy Missile (30-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!

I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 8 on Turf and 2 on Dirt:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (3)-Class-4, (3)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1800M C4 (9F)T……...3-7-4 W/ 5-1……….1:00 AM

R#2- 1650M C5 (8.25F)D….4-3-5 W/ 1-6……...1:30 AM

R#3– 1600M C5 (8F)T…..….2-1-6 W/ 4-9-5…….2:00 AM

R#4- 1400M C5 (7F)T..……..9-2-13 W/ 6-5-7...2:30 AM

R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T……....3-8-6 W/ 1-10-9..…3:00 AM

R#6- 1200M C4 (6F)T…......8-2-6 W/ 7-5-12…...3:35 AM

R#7– 1400M C4 (7F)T……..11-12-4 W/ 6-10-7 ...4:05 AM

R#8- 1650M C3 (8.25F)D.… 1-9-6 W/ 4-1-9 …….4:35 AM

R#9- 1200M C2 (6F)T…….… 3-5-1 W/ 4-9-7 …….5:10 AM

R#10- 1400M C3 (7F)T…… 3-12-13 W/ 1-9-8…..5:45 AM
.

[Nitro]

R#1- 1800M C4 (9F)T……...3-7-4 W/ 5-1……….1:00 AM

3-4-6-1– Dutch Win 17% Profit Margin-Passed / $11.10 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#2- 1650M C5 (8.25F)D….4-3-5 W/ 1-6……...1:30 AM

4-3-8-2– Dutch Win 14% Profit Margin-Passed / $6.90 Quinella

[Nitro]

R#3– 1600M C5 (8F)T…..….2-1-6 W/ 4-9-5…….2:00 AM

1-2-6-9– Dutch Win 10% Profit Margin-Passed / $12.40 Quinella & $84.00 Triple ($499.20 Quartet)- All of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#4- 1400M C5 (7F)T..……..9-2-3 W/ 6-5-7...2:30 AM

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#4- 1400M C5 (7F)T..……..9-2-3 W/ 6-5-7...2:30 AM

3-8-1-5– Dutch WIN 65% Profit Margin / Late action on the Placer #8

[Nitro]

R#5- 1200M C3 (6F)T……....3-8-6 W/ 1-10-9..…3:00 AM

3-8-6-7– Dutch Win 12% Profit Margin-Passed / $13.10 Quinella & $114.00 Triple Cold