Death by 1000 paper cuts

[Tom]

A convenience for local bridge jumpers.

[Jeff P]

Right now as I type this it's about 12:30 eastern time on Breeders Cup Saturday --

A lot of tracks have early post times today.

Race 1 at AQU has already been run.

Race 1 at FLX has already been run.

Finger Lakes reported their early scratches and changes to Equibase about 8 minutes after race 1 had been run.

With about 1 mtp for race 2, AQU has yet to report their early scratches and changes to Equibase.

How does this happen?



-jp

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[cj]

Equibase is VERY slow today, so maybe it isn't NYRA?

[groupie doll]

I noticed that too. Thought the site was down earlier, but just very sow to load. As of 12pm there were no scratches listed for SA at all other than the 2 in the Sprint. Maybe they are up now...

[Jeff P]

I realize the Equibase site has been slow today.

But looking at the XML itself --

The following tracks have been able to report early scratches and changes in the XML: CDX-FLX-GPW-HAW-LRL-PRX-SAX-TUP-WOX.

Right now as I type this, the XML was last updated at 11/2/2019 12:56:17 PM eastern by Laurel when they reported a rider change in race 1 (about 30 minutes after the race was run.)

No scratches (yet) from AQU.

I'd really like to know how/why things broke down today (in hopes of improving the timeliness/accuracy of the scratches and changes XML going forward.)


-jp

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[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

I realize the Equibase site has been slow today.

But looking at the XML itself --

The following tracks have been able to report early scratches and changes in the XML: CDX-FLX-GPW-HAW-LRL-PRX-SAX-TUP-WOX.

Right now as I type this, the XML was last updated at 11/2/2019 12:56:17 PM eastern by Laurel when they reported a rider change in race 1 (about 30 minutes after the race was run.)

No scratches (yet) from AQU.

I'd really like to know how/why things broke down today (in hopes of improving the timeliness/accuracy of the scratches and changes XML going forward.)


-jp

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DRF seems to be down for results as well, maybe it links to equibase. useless industry.

[Jeff P]

Received an email a few minutes ago from someone fairly high up on the ladder at Equibase --

One of the Jockey Club networks is down. The network itself (among other things) is designed to act as a fail safe by parsing the tote to pick up scratches that haven't been reported to Equibase by the tracks.

Right now as I type this, scratches and changes in the XML are those that have been reported to Equibase by the tracks. Missing from the XML are scratches and changes not reported by the tracks that (under normal circumstances) would be picked up by the back up system that parses the tote.

Hope I managed to type most of that in a way that makes sense.

Of course none of this would be happening if ALL of the tracks were making a good faith effort to report their scratches and changes directly to Equibase in a timely manner.

Now you know what I know.


-jp

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[groupie doll]

Thanks, Jeff. That explains why some of the scratches appeared and some didn't earlier.

[Jeff P]

Update:

The network is back up and scratches for all tracks should be appearing in the XML shortly.


-jp

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[Jeff P]

Methinks I spoke too soon... They told me the network is back up but right now as I type this there are tons of scratches missing from the XML.


-jp

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[Jeff P]

Below is screenshot taken from track video of Fairgrounds race 2 earlier today Thurs 02-20-2020 (that's a whole lot of 2's) shortly after the start --

I realize it's raining --

But maybe be proactive and have somebody take a paper towel and wipe off the camera lens BEFORE the race goes off?

Fyi, during the stretch run, track announcer John Dooley used the words "As you can see" while making the call that the favorite was pulling away.

"As you can see" --

That's a phrase I don't recall him using before.

I'm wondering - did he do that because maybe he realized 'no they can't really see?'

Taken in isolation, this incident (a race you can't really see because no one thought to wipe off the camera lens beforehand with a paper towel) is a small thing.

This thread is about the 1000's of annoying little things tracks are constantly doing that can be improved upon.

And this incident is certainly one of those things.

I started this thread because I was hoping there might be somebody out there in track management, a horsemen's alphabet group, or a state regulatory body with decision making authority who believes that quality control matters and that incremental improvement is not only possible - but might actually be a good thing.

Everywhere I look, every area of the game where quality control has the even the slightest chance to result in incremental improvement --

From the widely varying volume settings (can barely hear it to blast o' matic) from one track signal to another that prompted me to start this thread in the first place... to hiding the horses during post parades and prerace warmups with outrider ponies and track graphics that take up an ever increasing percentage of the available screen real estate... to a never ending series of races with timing errors that are caught by players instead of track personnel... to track stewards who are actively engaged in sweeping things under the rug --

Imo, tracks are skimping and cutting corners in just about every area imaginable where quality control could make a difference.


-jp

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[cj]

What's wrong with the picture????

[Tom]

Is that the Thoroughbred Director of Oversight?

I saw that camera at FG today - was thinking is the track CEO that busy to not show any respect for his customers?

What a loser.

[iamt]

Specific to race 2, you can still see rain blowing onto the lens as the race started, quite significantly too, I don't know if any wiping in the world would have helped.


The fact that the issue remained for some of the later races when conditions looked much easier however might be less defensible.

[Jeff P]

Several years ago I showed up at a CHRB Parimutuel Committee meeting and presented data to the CHRB that (in my opinion) showed an alarming trend:

California Exacta pools (with 22.68% takeout) were underperforming the Exacta pools of other racing jurisdictions with lower Exacta takeout.

California Exacta pools weren't just underperforming in terms of handle.

California Exacta pools were underperforming in terms of generating purses and revenue from handle.

After I presented my findings and had taken a seat, someone from upper management at The Stronach Group took the podium and announced to the room:

"The trend in Jeff's data is interesting. But I'm pretty sure it's a short term blip. Something that will eventually self correct and revert back to the mean."

Below is a screenshot showing pool totals for Santa Anita R1 today Fri 02-21-2020.

I've highlighted the WIN and EXACTA pools.

Note the differential between the two:

WIN 70,777
EXA 48,353

Before anybody jumps in and posts "What do you expect? It was a six horse field with a dominant favorite" --

Here are pool totals from today Fri 02-21-2020 at Aqueduct R1 where the exacta takeout is 18.50%:

WIN 86,131
EXA 120,380

Fyi, the Aqueduct race was a five horse field with a dominant favorite.

And no, this is not an isolated occurrence.

California Exacta pools (at 22.68% takeout) really are underperforming the national norm in terms of generating purse money and revenue from handle.

The annoying part to me is the trend was obvious about six weeks into their takeout hike back in 2011. They should have corrected it then.

But instead they insisted on the status quo and said things like "It's a five year plan. We have to give it time to work" and "I'm pretty sure it's a short term blip. Something that will eventually self correct and revert back to the mean."

Now here we are almost ten years later.

Imo, the trend (and the data over nearly a decade) couldn't be more clear.

Ignoring the data has cost California racing millions of dollars in lost revenue and purse money.

Maybe the time has come to revisit SB 1072 and California's 22.68% Exacta takeout.

If you think 22.68% Exacta takeout isn't death by 1000 paper cuts - think again.



-jp

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