Spot play - Selected maiden races

[Aner]

Picks for 3/30/23

GP 3---------#3 Barrel Craft
MvR 5-------#4 Mizzen the Point
GP 9--------#3 Stuck in Malibu
GP 9--------#8 Beach Ready
Aqu 8-------#8 Go Get the Bag
TP 4---------#9 Shackled by Lust

[Aner]

Results:

Originally Posted by Aner

Picks for 3/30/23

GP 3---------#3 Barrel Craft------------won @ 5:1 = $12.60
MvR 5-------#4 Mizzen the Point-------3rd @ 5:1
GP 9--------#3 Stuck in Malibu--------won @ 3:1 = $8.00
GP 9--------#8 Beach Ready-----------out @ 5:1
Aqu 8-------#8 Go Get the Bag--------3rd @ 12:1
TP 4---------#9 Shackled by Lust------3rd @ 5/2

# bets = 6
# wins = 2
$ bet = $12.00
$ back = $20.60
profit = $8.60

[Aner]

Picks for 3/31/23

Tam 3----------#4 Ski Country
GP 3-----------#2 Our Liberty Belle
GP 6-----------#5 Main Line Cipher
Tam 8----------#1 Duke of Gloucester
OP 6-----------#5 Explosive Pride
GP 9-----------#7 Apple Lover
Tam 9----------#7 D'oro Baby
Penn 2---------#2 Guiseppe
Penn 6---------#7 Buy Here Pay Here
TP 7------------#2 American Heights
TP 9------------#3 Hurry Up Hannah
TP 9------------#9 Blue Topaz

[Vinnie]

Tampa Race2

Liveforthesong. Sitting on a Big effort. For the Win.

[Aner]

Results:

Originally Posted by Aner

Picks for 3/31/23

Tam 3----------#4 Ski Country---------------scratched
GP 3-----------#2 Our Liberty Belle----------out @ 23:1
GP 6-----------#5 Main Line Cipher----------out @ 12:1
Tam 8----------#1 Duke of Gloucester-------2nd@ 11:1
OP 6-----------#5 Explosive Pride------------out @ 19:1
GP 9-----------#7 Apple Lover----------------out @ 17:1
Tam 9----------#7 D'oro Baby----------------out @ 7/2
Penn 2---------#2 Guiseppe------------------out @ 5:1
Penn 6---------#7 Buy Here Pay Here-------won @ 3/5 = $3.40
TP 7------------#2 American Heights--------won @ 6/5 = $4.52
TP 9------------#3 Hurry Up Hannah--------scratched
TP 9------------#9 Blue Topaz---------------2nd @ 21:1

# bets = 10
# wins = 2
$ bet = $20.00
$ back = $7.92
loss = $ 12.08

[Aner]

Recap for March 2023
Overall:

# of bets = 229
# of wins = 29
Frequency (F) = 13%

$ bet = $458.00
$ back = $428.38
Return = -$29.62
% loss = 6%

Since I post before scratches are known, I estimate off odds using the morning line. Artificially I have lumped the odds into the following groups:

Favorites = ML odds less than 4
Contenders = ML 4:1 to 9:1
Longshots = ML 10:1 to 19:1
Superlongshots: ML 20:1 or greater

Here's how the categories did in March:

less than 4:1

8/28 = 29% frequency

-$31.84/$56.00 = 57% loss

Odds 4-9

14/80 = 18% frequency

$32,10/$160.00 =20% profit

Odds 10 -19

6/97 = 6% F

-$39.00/$194.00 = 20% loss

Odds 20+

1/42 = 2% F

-$34.80/ $84.00 = -41% loss

[ReplayRandall]

Aner, for March I see 247 plays....$494 bet.

[Aner]

I have decided to abort this thread. Overall from the first bet to the last I found:

82 wins from 638 bets = 13% frequency

-$157.26 net from $1276.00 bet = 12% loss

The pit is now so deep, it seems unlikely I can ever get out of the hole. But I have not given up hope for this maiden system. I plan to tighten up the rules and start a new thread using the new restrictions. Here are the 3 changes I plan to make.

1) If my pick is less than 4:1 on the ML, I'll pass that race. Those bets broke about even last year and I left them in to avoid spirit crushing long run-outs, but they have been terrible this year.

2) If race has 6 or fewer entries, I'll pass. Seldom a long shot in these fields.

3) After evaluation I considered both my top 2 picks and played them both if the odds were high enough. I now plan to use my top pick and only choose two in cases of ties.

I will continue to scour the USA for maiden races, but expect the number of picks will drop to about a quarter of this study.

[Aner]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Aner, for March I see 247 plays....$494 bet.

Sharp eye. I rechecked all the bet results I posted for March and made sure my spreadsheet was not faulty. No problem there.

When I looked at the overall March results I posted this morning I found the error. The category (20:1+) should be 24 bets, not 42. The problem is my typing, not the math.


Thanks.