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05-03-2016, 05:12 PM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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formula's quest for exacta pool profits
I'll be happy if I can outperform the win pool
here's the deal
I pick two horses I consider to be to post time favorites at app 4 min to post.
the exacta bet sizes be determined by the magic in my lamp.
the bet size will be adjusted by a factor, which is determined by another magical lamp I hold.
for now, you will have to do the math to adjusted bet size, but I'll keep score.
I'll compare the $1 return of a win bet to the $1 return of my exacta.
If I can score 20% better than the win pool payoffs, I will sell my two lamps, else I will keep the lamps and shine them up anew
there are some plays I will not be able to post, however they will be included in the tally. there will be enough posted plays to make the tally belivable.
I'll post the results after each race.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 05:14 PM.
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05-03-2016, 05:22 PM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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don't be disturbed by the bet size. you can add a decimal wherever you like
Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
8
Post
5:21
MTP
3
$2 Exacta Pool
$5,353 " 5242.33
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 141 296 212 356 653 979 0 196 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 96 193 155 290 602 870 0 203 0 0 0 0 0 0
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 05:24 PM.
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05-03-2016, 05:37 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
8
Post
5:21
MTP
3
$2 Exacta Pool
$5,353 "
FACTOR 0.07 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 0.00
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 340.13
WIN PGNO 3
PLACE PGNO 6
WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 0.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net
EXACTA RETURN 0.0000 $1 ex net 0.00
total return 0.0000
total bet 340.1334 $ total net -340.13
the factor for the next race will be appox 0.18
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 05:49 PM
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#4
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
9
Post
5:49
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$2,859 " factor 0.18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 0 249 209 173 258 40 43 165 341 221 0 0 0 0
8
9
10 0 1047 224 151 403 147 349 116 221 221 0 0 0 0
11
12
13
14
15
16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 06:02 PM
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#5
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
9
Post
5:49
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$2,859 "
FACTOR 0.18 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 0.00
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 846.07
WIN PGNO 2
PLACE PGNO 5
WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 0.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net
EXACTA RETURN 0.0000 $1 ex net 0.00
total return 0.0000
total bet 846.0724 $ total net -846.07
next factor is .50
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 06:03 PM.
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05-03-2016, 06:12 PM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Will Rogers
Race
9
Post
6:11
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$2,903 " factor 0.50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0
0
0
0
787 787 394 685 1211 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
225 404 232 276 750 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 06:22 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Will Rogers
Race
9
Post
6:11
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$2,903 "
FACTOR 0.50 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 608.24
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 2887.63
WIN PGNO 2
PLACE PGNO 5
WIN $1 PAY OUT 1.70
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 4.60
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 608.2353 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 0.85
EXACTA RETURN 2797.8823 $1 ex net 0.97
total return 2797.8823
total bet 2887.6330 $ total net -89.75
the two exacta line bets returned .97 for a dollar.
the two win bets but .85 on the dollar.
purely a technical analysis, but the exacta outperformed the win.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 06:28 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Hoosier
Race
3
Post
6:27
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$1,929 " factor 0.07
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1
2 136 182 1045 980 0 301 341 151 170 0 0 0
3
4
5 158 560 184 475 0 280 356 102 160 0 0 0
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 06:54 PM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Hoosier
Race
3
Post
6:27
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$1,929 "
FACTOR 0.07 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 0.00
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 379.38
WIN PGNO 2
PLACE PGNO 5
WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 0.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 0.00
EXACTA RETURN 0.0000 $1 ex net 0.00
total return 0.0000
total bet 379.3806 $ total net -379.38
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 07:00 PM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
1
Post
7:00
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$9,179 " factor 0.18
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1
2
3 599 0 476 376 376 134 104 0 647 0 0 0
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 294 0 449 376 284 274 130 93 0 0 0 0
11
12
13
14
15
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 07:04 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
1
Post
7:00
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$9,179 "
FACTOR 0.18 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 0.00
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 852.06
WIN PGNO 1
PLACE PGNO 4
WIN $1 PAY OUT 0.00
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 0.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 0.00
EXACTA RETURN 0.0000 $1 ex net 0.00
total return 0.0000
total bet 852.0571 $ total net -852.06
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 07:44 PM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
3
Post
7:44
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$1,692 " factor 0.07
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1
2
3
4
5
6 1461 0 699 0 0 0 2678 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 0
8 518 0 365 0 0 1785 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 08:07 PM
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#13
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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"Mountaineer
Race
3
Post
7:44
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$1,692 "
FACTOR 0.07 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 121.31
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 510.03
WIN PGNO 8
PLACE PGNO 6
WIN $1 PAY OUT 3.70
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 6.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 121.3102 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 1.85
EXACTA RETURN 727.8613 $1 ex net 1.43
total return 727.8613
total bet 510.0311 $ total net 217.83
the win pool bet outperformed the exacta bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 08:10 PM
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#14
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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results for a race not podted
Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
2
Post
7:22
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$5,940 "
FACTOR 0.502138423 bet on winner 0
WIN BET (factor adj) 0 bet on ex winner 450.8695274
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 2957.857475
WIN PGNO 5
PLACE PGNO 2
WIN $1 PAY OUT 1.9
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 6.5
WIN BET ON WINNER 0 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 450.8695274 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0 $1 win net 0.95
EXACTA RETURN 2930.651928 $1 ex net 0.990802279
total return 2930.651928
total bet 2957.857475 $ total net -27.2055466
exacta outperforms win bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-03-2016, 09:08 PM
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#15
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Code:
"Mountaineer
Race
5
Post
8:28
MTP
4
$2 Exacta Pool
$6,129 "
FACTOR 0.07 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 42.16
EXACTA BET (factor adj) 299.34
WIN PGNO 9
PLACE PGNO 5
WIN $1 PAY OUT 3.30
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 12.20
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 42.1620 (factor adj)
WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 1.65
EXACTA RETURN 514.3766 $1 ex net 1.72
total return 514.3766
total bet 299.3412 $ total net 215.04
exacta outperforms win pool bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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