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Old 05-03-2016, 05:12 PM   #1
formula_2002
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formula's quest for exacta pool profits

I'll be happy if I can outperform the win pool

here's the deal
I pick two horses I consider to be to post time favorites at app 4 min to post.
the exacta bet sizes be determined by the magic in my lamp.

the bet size will be adjusted by a factor, which is determined by another magical lamp I hold.

for now, you will have to do the math to adjusted bet size, but I'll keep score.

I'll compare the $1 return of a win bet to the $1 return of my exacta.

If I can score 20% better than the win pool payoffs, I will sell my two lamps, else I will keep the lamps and shine them up anew

there are some plays I will not be able to post, however they will be included in the tally. there will be enough posted plays to make the tally belivable.
I'll post the results after each race.
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Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 05:14 PM.
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Old 05-03-2016, 05:22 PM   #2
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don't be disturbed by the bet size. you can add a decimal wherever you like


Code:
	"Indiana Grand
 Race
8

 Post
5:21

 MTP
3

 $2 Exacta Pool
$5,353 "								5242.33						
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1															0
2															0
3															0
4															0
5	141	296	212	356	 	653	979	0	196	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	96	193	155	290	602	 	870	0	203	0	0	0	0	0	0
7															
8															
9															
10															
11															
12															
13															
14															
15															
16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 05:24 PM.
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Old 05-03-2016, 05:37 PM   #3
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Code:
"Indiana Grand
 Race
8

 Post
5:21

 MTP
3

 $2 Exacta Pool
$5,353 "				
FACTOR	0.07		bet on winner	0.00
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0.00		bet on ex  winner	0.00
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	340.13			
				
WIN PGNO	3			
PLACE PGNO	6			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	0.00			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	0.00			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0.0000	$1 win net	 	 
EXACTA RETURN	0.0000	$1 ex net	0.00	
total return	0.0000			
total bet	340.1334	$ total net	-340.13
the factor for the next race will be appox 0.18
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 05:49 PM   #4
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Code:
	"Indiana Grand
 Race
9

 Post
5:49

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$2,859 "								factor	0.18					
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15
1															
2															
3															
4															
5															
6															
7	0	249	209	173	258	40	 	43	165	341	221	0	0	0	0
8															
9										 					
10	0	1047	224	151	403	147	349	116	221	 	221	0	0	0	0
11															
12															
13															
14															
15															
16	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 06:02 PM   #5
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Code:
 "Indiana Grand
 Race
9

 Post
5:49

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$2,859 "				
FACTOR	0.18		bet on winner	0.00
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0.00		bet on ex  winner	0.00
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	846.07			
				
WIN PGNO	2			
PLACE PGNO	5			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	0.00			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	0.00			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0.0000	$1 win net	 	 
EXACTA RETURN	0.0000	$1 ex net	0.00	
total return	0.0000			
total bet	846.0724	$ total net	-846.07
next factor is .50
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill

Last edited by formula_2002; 05-03-2016 at 06:03 PM.
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Old 05-03-2016, 06:12 PM   #6
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Code:
"Will Rogers 
 Race
9

 Post
6:11

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$2,903 "								factor	0.50			
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
												0
												0
												0
												0
787	787	394	685	 	1211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
225	404	232	276	750	 	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
												
												
												
												
												
												
												
												
												
0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 06:22 PM   #7
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"Will Rogers
Race
9

Post
6:11

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,903 "
FACTOR 0.50 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 608.24

EXACTA BET (factor adj) 2887.63

WIN PGNO 2
PLACE PGNO 5
WIN $1 PAY OUT 1.70
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 4.60
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 608.2353 (factor adj)

WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 0.85
EXACTA RETURN 2797.8823 $1 ex net 0.97
total return 2797.8823
total bet 2887.6330 $ total net -89.75


the two exacta line bets returned .97 for a dollar.
the two win bets but .85 on the dollar.
purely a technical analysis, but the exacta outperformed the win.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 06:28 PM   #8
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Code:
	"Hoosier 
 Race
3

 Post
6:27

 MTP
2

 $2 Exacta Pool
$1,929 "								factor	0.07			
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
1													
2	136	 	182	1045	980	0	301	341	151	170	0	0	0
3													
4													
5	158	560	184	475	 	0	280	356	102	160	0	0	0
6													
7													
8													
9													
10													
11													
12													
13													
14													
15													
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 06:54 PM   #9
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
"Hoosier 
 Race
3

 Post
6:27

 MTP
2

 $2 Exacta Pool
$1,929 "				
FACTOR	0.07		bet on winner	0.00
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0.00		bet on ex  winner	0.00
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	379.38			
				
WIN PGNO	2			
PLACE PGNO	5			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	0.00			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	0.00			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0.0000	$1 win net	0.00	 
EXACTA RETURN	0.0000	$1 ex net	0.00	
total return	0.0000			
total bet	379.3806	$ total net	-379.38	
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 07:00 PM   #10
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
Code:
	"Mountaineer
 Race
1

 Post
7:00

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$9,179 "								factor	0.18			
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
1													
2													
3	599	0	 	476	376	376	134	104	0	647	0	0	0
4													
5													
6													
7													
8													
9													
10	294	0	449	376	284	274	130	93	0	 	0	0	0
11													
12													
13													
14													
15													
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 07:04 PM   #11
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Code:
"Mountaineer
 Race
1

 Post
7:00

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$9,179 "				
FACTOR	0.18		bet on winner	0.00
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0.00		bet on ex  winner	0.00
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	852.06			
				
WIN PGNO	1			
PLACE PGNO	4			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	0.00			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	0.00			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0.0000	$1 win net	0.00	 
EXACTA RETURN	0.0000	$1 ex net	0.00	
total return	0.0000			
total bet	852.0571	$ total net	-852.06
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 07:44 PM   #12
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what an easy game.
 
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Code:
	"Mountaineer
 Race
3

 Post
7:44

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$1,692 "								factor	0.07				
	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
1														
2														
3														
4														
5														
6	1461	0	699	0	0	 	0	2678	0	0	0	0	0	0
7														0
8	518	0	365	0	0	1785	0	 	0	0	0	0	0	0
9														
10														
11														
12														
13														
14														
15														
16
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 08:07 PM   #13
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"Mountaineer
Race
3

Post
7:44

MTP
4

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,692 "
FACTOR 0.07 bet on winner 0.00
WIN BET (factor adj) 0.00 bet on ex winner 121.31

EXACTA BET (factor adj) 510.03

WIN PGNO 8
PLACE PGNO 6
WIN $1 PAY OUT 3.70
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT 6.00
WIN BET ON WINNER 0.0000 (factor adj)
EX BET ON WINNER 121.3102 (factor adj)

WIN RETURN 0.0000 $1 win net 1.85
EXACTA RETURN 727.8613 $1 ex net 1.43
total return 727.8613
total bet 510.0311 $ total net 217.83

the win pool bet outperformed the exacta bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 08:10 PM   #14
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results for a race not podted

Code:
"Mountaineer
 Race
2

 Post
7:22

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$5,940 "				
FACTOR	0.502138423		bet on winner	0
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0		bet on ex  winner	450.8695274
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	2957.857475			
				
WIN PGNO	5			
PLACE PGNO	2			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	1.9			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	6.5			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	450.8695274	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0	$1 win net	0.95	 
EXACTA RETURN	2930.651928	$1 ex net	0.990802279	
total return	2930.651928			
total bet	2957.857475	$ total net	-27.2055466
exacta outperforms win bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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Old 05-03-2016, 09:08 PM   #15
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Code:
"Mountaineer
 Race
5

 Post
8:28

 MTP
4

 $2 Exacta Pool
$6,129 "				
FACTOR	0.07		bet on winner	0.00
 WIN  BET (factor adj)	0.00		bet on ex  winner	42.16
				
 EXACTA BET (factor adj)	299.34			
				
WIN PGNO	9			
PLACE PGNO	5			
WIN  $1 PAY OUT	3.30			
EXACTA $1 PAYOUT	12.20			
WIN BET ON WINNER	0.0000	(factor adj)		
EX BET ON WINNER	42.1620	(factor adj)		
 				
WIN  RETURN	0.0000	$1 win net	1.65	 
EXACTA RETURN	514.3766	$1 ex net	1.72	
total return	514.3766			
total bet	299.3412	$ total net	215.04
exacta outperforms win pool bet
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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