True or false

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by banacek

For you Kelly bettors, the optimal betting fractions for this case are:

I agree with your calculation, but I would change my wagering strategy to "conditional" based on the toteboard odds.

What I am saying is that although your calculations reveals .10W and .16P I would make my wagering strategy a function of the toteboard odds.

Therefore as the toteboard odds changes I would conditionally adjust my wagering, but not exceeding the 1:1.6 ratio.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by banacek

For you Kelly bettors, the optimal betting fractions for this case are:

What do i do if i rarely wager on horses with odds less than 9/2?

[banacek]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

What do i do if i rarely wager on horses with odds less than 9/2?

The one given is just an example. The formulae work for any odds. If you are betting a 12-1 shot and think he'll pay 4-1 to place and you have estimates for the probabilities, you can plug them in the formulae.

Note: if any or both of the betting fractions turn out negative that means at least one of the two (win or place or both) are bad bets. So (for example) if you get 5% to win and -4% to place, that means you should just bet win and recalculate the Kelly fraction with the basic Kelly formula.

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

What do i do if i rarely wager on horses with odds less than 9/2?

Example:

$1000 bankroll
9% edge
9/2 odds

9%/4.5 = 2% of bankroll = $20

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Example:

$1000 bankroll
9% edge
9/2 odds

9%/4.5 = 2% of bankroll = $20

LDH happy.

That is normal wager.

[Jingle]

Great thread. Question: would it better to bet 2 horses to win at 7-2 or better (Danny Holmes,) or 1 horse W-P at 9-2 or above. I usually do the former and pass when only 1 horse meets the 7-2 rule. Would like your opinion. No long run outs but kills when one of your choices wins at 6-1. Also pass a race if the favorite is 1-1 or less.