THE INSANITY CURRENTLY GRIPPING THE INDUSTRY HAS TO END NOW!

[cj]

Originally Posted by Denny

Isn't it time for tracks to use computer-generated ML's?

Look at some of the gross errors made by the track handicapper.

Example: Wesley Ward's Bound for Nowhere in yesterday's Shakertown 20/1 ml. Opened around 7/1, went off a little higher around 8/1 and won.

Only if they buy them from the CRW teams!

[cj]

Originally Posted by pandy

Maloney covered this in his book, and actually did find instances of past posting, but most of the time it's just late money that comes in and doesn't get counted until after the race starts. All this really proves is that there are some good players out there who are looking for overlays and a lot of money comes in late. The only way to stop this type of odds change after the start of the race would be to stop taking bets a couple of minutes before the race starts, but I don't see that happening.

He saw with his own eyes several times that windows weren't closed and that people bet after the bell. I get that stuff happens, but the response from the industry as he detailed is appalling. The last chapter of that book is quite eye opening and worth the price of the book in my opinion.

[cj]

Originally Posted by onefast99

So the numbers at GP now a year round facility(GPW break)doesn’t prove the product can get better? How many times do the odds change on the winners at GP? It seems running the race approximately eight minutes after post time may indeed have solved this problem but I don’t have any scientific information to prove that. Maybe someone else does.

Gulfstream is as bad as anyone else with odds changes after the break. I still think the post drag is done for a reason, and it isn't to help guys like me and PA.

[cj]

I do agree with Dave here. You have to throw all the old ideas about value out the window and formulate a new approach. You have to be able to come up with a better way to predict the final odds. Easier said than done of course but being passive and a slave to the tote isn't going to cut it any more, and hasn't for several years. It is only going to get worse.

[Denny]

The post drag by GP boosts business.

It also eats into other tracks open window between races.
NYRA being the prime target.
GP gets 20 minutes of exposure between races to NY's 10 for every 30 minutes of the time both run concurrently.

(I could explain if anyone is interested. It's quite clever of Gulfstream to do it.)

I've pointed this out at another website and they pooh pooh me.
Now I'm banned from posting for pointing out errors and inconsistencies.

(Their main advertisers happen to be TSG owned GP and Xpressbet)

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by cj

The whole post is good, but I really want to focus on this part. I'll pick on Gulfstream but this really could apply to lots of tracks, particularly those with Trakus.

• There are timing errors galore.
• You don't know the real distance of the turf races including run up
• You don't know the time of the entire race
• The fractions are totally skewed due to run up, especially when changing it for the same distance on the same day

Does anyone really think that not only do the CRW teams have better information, but that it isn't being provided to them when possible?

There is so much more we don't know that people could buy and exploit against the general public. I could have made this list three times longer easily. Feel free to add to it.

When Trackus first started, I was excited. Mostly because the technology could track a horse from the moment the gate opened. Thus, I figured the information would be valuable. On their website they proudly proclaimed that the technology would provide a better customer experience, and the information would be invaluable for racing insiders. That's when I realized that the information gathered was going to be the same information we get now. And to add to your list, one of your favorites, "About 7.5f".

[paulbenny]

I understand this pretty well. Lets keep it simple. On track handle for the most part is dwarfed by off track on line wagering. The "pipes" or lines of compilation for wagering are all over the country and consolidated at various levels. It is cycled and after post a lot of money is still coming in. The arbitrage people who bet a lot, and sometimes use computer algorithms, take advantage of the perceived odds at post and simple bet a lot. Occasionally this breaks down and lets face it, there have been instances of past post wagering. However, it is rare. It is not that complicated. You focused on the winner situation but they lose too, going from 12-1 to 9-2 and running out and you would not notice or do not care.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This wouldn't cure the problem for me. If everyone knows the pools close at 0mtp, what difference would that make compared to everyone knowing the pools close once the gate opens?

The ONLY thing this would solve is the "public perception" that someone is past posting because the odds change after the race starts.

I don't care much about that.

I care about the fact that I bet a horse at 9-1 when they're just starting the gate load, at Keeneland, in a very large pool, and the horse wins and I only get back $11.

That's what I care about the most.

Now how do you solve that? Closing the pools before the race starts won't solve that problem at all.

I hear you. But that's the biggest problem going with this game. (Public perception).

The public thinks the game is old , dying and rigged....that's the Triple Crown of crappy business and lack of public interest.

Hell, the other thread (on this)is 41 pages long with over 27,000 views.

It is a large pool, like i said, it takes a lot to move it that much. Many people would see that as an unfair advantage. And they don't want to see it as the horse crosses the wire. The tracks are virtually asking for these responses!

Public perception is what makes the world go round...that's the point you are missing. The public perception is that this game is going down hill. Your perception is that its insanity and it is. They do the same thing over and over again expecting better results....and it just keeps getting worse. Pretty much defining.....insanity.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jay68802

When Trackus first started, I was excited. Mostly because the technology could track a horse from the moment the gate opened. Thus, I figured the information would be valuable. On their website they proudly proclaimed that the technology would provide a better customer experience, and the information would be invaluable for racing insiders. That's when I realized that the information gathered was going to be the same information we get now. And to add to your list, one of your favorites, "About 7.5f".

The difference is that there is more information available that we don't get. But obviously some people do get it, or why else is it available?

They time from the gate and they know the exact distance. They can compare opening quarters, halves, etc. regardless of run up because they can do it from the gate. They also know exactly when horses lose ground which is pretty important. I'm sure there is more I'm forgetting off the top of my head.

Are HD replays in a computer friendly format available for sale? Probably. Why would I think they aren't for the right price or as a perk for betting big money? This stuff is just the tip of the iceberg.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

This is the straw that breaks the camel's back for me. I've pooh poohed people in the past for complaining about late odds drops, but this one was out of this world insane.

I'm tired of it.

Keeneland Race 5.
TWELVE horse field.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9-1 at 0mtp.
Wire-to-wire winner was 9/2 after she crossed the finish line.

If the industry doesn't start seriously investigating and putting the breaks on whomever or whatever is causing this rampant and massive pool shenanigans, we the betting public will have no choice but to throw this game into the trash bin where it belongs under these current operating conditions.

I've loved this game to death for over 30 years, but what has been happening lately is nothing short of perverse. Everyone knows it's happening, everyone knows why it's happening, but the powers that be will never put an end to it unless we force them to, and honestly, I don't see that happening.

This is truly a sad day for me.

Same boat. I'm with you man. The last time I took horse racing serious was before Dale Baird passed away. It's very difficult for me to take the sport serious with this amount of nonsense. For all intensive purposes I'm a casual at best these days bc of several reasons. I think the major reason is the short fields, which I won't bet anything that doesn't have ten entries or more now. 2) the rake and breakage is absurd... i might as well go play poker 3) compounding #2 is the issue of astronomical late odds changes. It was bad years ago too, but it was never this bad. I use to adjust but it's no longer reasonable imo. It should be looked into.

For the record I was a winning player while Dale graced mountaineer, and I'm not just complaining for the sake of my poor judgement.

[GMB@BP]

I just dont play much anymore. I dont have time to bet enough to get a rebate and playing against CRW teams has made it just about impossible, I do break even or shade positive a little.

I have moved on to tourney play.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I do agree with Dave here. You have to throw all the old ideas about value out the window and formulate a new approach. You have to be able to come up with a better way to predict the final odds. Easier said than done of course but being passive and a slave to the tote isn't going to cut it any more, and hasn't for several years. It is only going to get worse.

IMO...the only way to predict the closing odds with any decree of accuracy is by "handicapping" the late-betting Whales. And, since their handicapping and betting methods are WAY more sophisticated than ours...that isn't likely to ever happen. And...if things get even worse for us in the future, which is exactly what we both think will happen...then, good night Irene.

[Franco Santiago]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

PA,

I know you are steamed. Welcome to the club.

Seriously, the answer is not that complicated but it does take a change in thinking.

What I have done... and many of my users have done... is to simply stop using the tote altogether. Almost 4 years since I stopped.

Amazingly, my handicapping life is actually BETTER.

What we do is create what I used to call "phony odds." Now we call them "object odds" or simply "aML," which stands for "artificial Morning Line."

It is based upon the idea that we can predict How the Public USUALLY bets the money on a horse like this one.

The driving force is what we call a handicapping object. That is nothing but 5 or 6 factors weighted together, and then normalized to 100%. The individual horse percentages become the "phony pool."

All the factors should be "high-level" factors. Just think in terms of factors that have high hit rates because they will always correlate with the tote board.

The primary factor is almost always Morning Line. Others include factors like BRIS Prime Power or HDW's Projected Speed Rating. Think of which factors you might add beyond that.

BTW, I actually use the ranks in these factors as opposed to raw ratings.


Not only is there great freedom in this, but there is a bit of logic as well, in the sense that horses SHOULD be bet based upon HOW THE LOOK (in terms of important factors).

Now, races with FTS and foreign horses present a problem. Even HSH does not handle that well. Much easier to overcome in a spreadsheet.

BTW, do not think for a minute that this approach is going to do a near-perfect job. There is no such thing. Not even the whales, who have the benefit of not only a much more complex approach than a 5-factor object and also tote board patterns.

But trust me when I say that it really doesn't matter. If you implement this you will find that you are no longer hitting a moving target.

Will you bet a horse expecting to get 6/1 and wind up at 5/2? Absolutely. You will also see 12/1 pay 4/5. Why? Because the horse really shouldn't have been 4/5 based upon how good he looked.

In fact, I actually built a seminar called The Renegade Handicapper around this concept:

1. Create the Phony Odds.
2. Pick Contenders based upon your handicapping factors.
3. Create probabilities from the REAL ODDS.
4. Penalize the Non-Contenders' probabilities hugely and make new probabilities.
5. Bet into the Phony Odds with your Probabilities.

If there is sufficient interest, I will arrange a free seminar to teach people how to do this. One MUST expect that it will take some work.


Dave
PS: I've not talked about it in a long time but I am really within 6 weeks or so of releasing the beta version of my new SMALL DATA software. That software will have a BUNCH of these aML objects built in.

I love your solution. I use something very similar and I agree with you (not that it matters what *I* think).

Unfortunately, for the majority, the real problem is not the tote. It is their core belief that that the game is tainted, rigged against them, unbeatable, or otherwise crooked. This limiting belief has already doomed them and no amount of "coaching" or teaching them (as you have done above) is going to help. In fact, to them, the game will always be just crooked enough to make them lose. Sad, but true.

[Denny]

Why do we need a ML???

Isn't it just a way to get you to bet???

Or, in some cases, a way to mislead the public???

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

40% of the win pool appears at Keeneland AFTER the race goes off.

#feelsbadman

You just found this out?