Hong Kong

[denniswilliams]

Sha Tin 3/24/24

Race 1 - Happy For All Must Go Geneva

Race 2 - Fight Time Affirm

Race 3 - Lucky Touch Less is More Lifeline Express

Race 4 - Joyful Prosperity Celtic Times Beer Palace

Race 5 - Toronado Phantom Ka Ying Rising Call Me Glorious

Race 9 - Holy Lake The Best Peach

Race 10 - Fun Together Patch of Theta Amazing Victory

[woodbinepmi]

Three key plays for Sha Tin March 24
Race 1 Geneva (4-5) Must Go (9-2) quinella
Race 3 Always Fluke (7-1)
Race 7 Galaxy Patch (11-1)

Longshots:
Race 1 Speed Sword (58-1) & Strathbarry (23-1)
Race 2 Soaring Bronco (20-1)
Race 3 Champion Method (8-1) & Full Credit (13-1)
Race 4 Starship Eighty (9-1) & Royal Pride 36-1)
Race 5 Prawns Eleven (9-1)
Race 6 I Can (20-1) & Circuit Mighty (13-1)
Race 7 Star Mac (10-1)
Race 8 Courier Wonder (15-1)
Race 9 Columbus County (15-1) & Natural Storm (18-1)
Race 10 Amazing Victory (19-1)

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Sha Tin 3/24/24

Race 1 - Happy For All 2nd Must Go Geneva 3rd

Race 2 - Fight Time Affirm 2nd

Race 3 - Lucky Touch 3rd Less is More Lifeline Express win

Race 4 - Joyful Prosperity 3rd Celtic Times Beer Palace

Race 5 - Toronado Phantom Ka Ying Rising win Call Me Glorious 2nd

Race 9 - Holy Lake 3rd The Best Peach win

Race 10 - Fun Together Patch of Theta win Amazing Victory

Tough day. Most of it had an inside, speed bias. Losing the exacta in the 9th just before the wire particularly hurt.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Tough day. Most of it had an inside, speed bias. Losing the exacta in the 9th just before the wire particularly hurt.

the late double paid good $40.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the late double paid good $40.

Not available with TwinSpires.

The late pk3 is but, of course, I didn't play it. And even if I had, you know that Flying Ace would've lost the photo.

Watch the 8th race. See how savvy Purton is. He intentionally stays inside entering the stretch (on the 9) rather than coming out, gambling that he'll eventually get clear. Inside was the place to be.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Not available with TwinSpires.

The late pk3 is but, of course, I didn't play it. And even if I had, you know that Flying Ace would've lost the photo.

Watch the 8th race. See how savvy Purton is. He intentionally stays inside entering the stretch (on the 9) rather than coming out, gambling that he'll eventually get clear. Inside was the place to be.

.you just made an excellent point. you really can't compare North American Thoroughbred racing to Hong Kong. a good jockey with a head on his shoulders means so much in Hong Kong due to the style of racing. in Hong Kong, the horses go around the track and need some type of cover to sustain a bid at the right time. the trick seems to be when to pull out or stay in. in North American racing, lots of times the jockey try's to bury the other horse on the inside to get him trapped in.

[denniswilliams]

Happy Valley 3/27/24

Ideally, I get up early and play live. This is what I like so far:


Race 1 - Atomic Beauty- wide draw. IDIOT ride by Purton last time out.

Race 3 - Can't Go Wong - came off the rail to launch a wide no cover premature turn run last out. Drops to class 5. Big Two - gets the rail again and, unlike last time, needs to SIT INSIDE and bid late stretch. / toss up for 3rd choice between Northern Beast Regency Happy Star and Foxhunter Way

Race 4- Don't trust Winning Heart. Nice against the grain race last time but had a rail run. So, the 1 post is no improvement and 5:2 presently, is way too low. Looking to beat this one, maybe Hercules, again, but it depends on the odds.

Race 6 - Ernest Feeling

Race 7 - Beauty Waves - Cutting back to 100M after a bit of a layoff and trainer change?
Purton stays on and the horse has won 3 trials in a row. But prohibitive chalk. Needs to prove it can get the distance. Will try to beat, if I play live.

Race 9 - O'Liner - nice race last out @ ST. 1 post and figures to set or contest the pace. Bowman stays on, which is not exactly a positive. Beauty Infinity. 3-4 wide, no cover trip, last out, where the first 2 had rail trips. Chalk and will be very hard to beat. Joy Coming. Got to include this one. 3 wide no cover trip, with a premature move, and has enough to get it done last out. Doubtful will repeat this performance and Hewitson will certainly be wide. Will add a small exacta if odds stay long.

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Happy Valley 3/27/24

Ideally, I get up early and play live. This is what I like so far:


Race 1 - Atomic Beauty- wide draw. IDIOT ride by Purton last time out.
4 wide no cover - ran 4th losing by 3/4 of a length. Much the best

Race 3 - Can't Go Wong - came off the rail to launch a wide no cover premature turn run last out. Drops to class 5. won $11.40 Big Two - gets the rail again and, unlike last time, needs to SIT INSIDE and bid late stretch. 3rd / toss up for 3rd choice between Northern Beast 2nd Regency Happy Star and Foxhunter Way
exacta $66.80

Race 4- Don't trust Winning Heart. Nice against the grain race last time but had a rail run. So, the 1 post is no improvement and 5:2 presently, is way too low. Looking to beat this one, maybe Hercules, again, but it depends on the odds.
11 won $6 NO BET

Race 6 - Ernest Feeling

Race 7 - Beauty Waves - Cutting back to 100M after a bit of a layoff and trainer change?
Purton stays on and the horse has won 3 trials in a row. But prohibitive chalk. Needs to prove it can get the distance. Will try to beat, if I play live.
WON $3.30 NO BET


Race 9 - O'Liner - nice race last out @ ST. 1 post and figures to set or contest the pace. Bowman stays on, which is not exactly a positive. Beauty Infinity. 3-4 wide, no cover trip, last out, where the first 2 had rail trips. Chalk and will be very hard to beat. 2nd Joy Coming. Got to include this one. 3 wide no cover trip, with a premature move, and has enough to get it done last out. Doubtful will repeat this performance and Hewitson will certainly be wide. Will add a small exacta if odds stay long.

[denniswilliams]

It was fairly obvious that Race 6 on 2/25/24 at Sha Tin was a strong race.
After Second to None won 3/24, I also knew that it was a KEY race.

I looked at Snowalot in race 5 on 3/27 and noted he had won a recent trial of 11.

I assume I also noted that he was coming out of that key race BUT clearly it didn't register - as I passed the race.

Purton up and still payed $14.

Another one of my many fuckups.

Smart Fighter coming back this Sunday out of the same race and won a recent 10 horse trial.

[denniswilliams]

Sha Tin 3/31/24

Race 4 - PROSECCO THE PERFECT MATCH

Race 5 - SMART FIGHTER LUCKY GOLD GOLDEN RISE

Race 6 - GOLDEN DARCI VOYAGE SAMURAI SIXTH GENERATION

Race 7 - HUGE WAVE SUPERB KID

Race 8 - PHOENIX LIGHT KING MILES STORM DRAGON

Race 9 - FRANTACK FLAMINGO TRILLION FALLON

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

Sha Tin 3/31/24

Race 4 - PROSECCO $8.60 THE PERFECT MATCH

Race 5 - SMART FIGHTER LUCKY GOLD $51:30 : GOLDEN RISE

Race 6 - GOLDEN DARCI VOYAGE SAMURAI $4 SIXTH GENERATION

Race 7 - HUGE WAVE SUPERB KID $4.80

Race 8 - PHOENIX LIGHT $45.70 KING MILES STORM DRAGON

Race 9 - FRANTACK $14.30 FLAMINGO TRILLION FALLON

[denniswilliams]

4/2/24

Rare night racing @ Sha Tin -- 8 DIRT races. Not much time devoted to this card.

Race 1 - Joyful Champion - 1st time on the dirt - WOEFUL trainer - suspect JOCK - Love this one off last race. Currently 5.8 2nd choice - not interested if odd below 5:1

Race 2 - Super Joy - Chadwick actually rode this one last time like he's a real jock - not a challenged nonagenarian posing as one. 3:1 chalk presently - Should Gallop - I need odds increase to bet with the clown up.

Race 3 - Vantastic Choice - 1st time dirt - Speed Strive For Glory - best dirt races in the field - late runner - hard to figure out Hinokami Kagura - late running plug - don't think much of this one but Purton gets up so, low odds - defensive play.

Race 4 - Diamond Flare - 5.1 chalk - speed - cruises New Power - 1st time dirt - nothing special on the turf

Race 6 - Toronado Phantom - needs some pace - might not get it Victory Moment - nice dirt form but Chadwick is up Sing Dragon - appears to be lone speed - unless Campione wakes up

[denniswilliams]

Originally Posted by denniswilliams

4/2/24

Rare night racing @ Sha Tin -- 8 DIRT races. Not much time devoted to this card.

Race 1 - Joyful Champion - 1st time on the dirt - WOEFUL trainer - suspect JOCK - Love this one off last race. Currently 5.8 2nd choice - not interested if odd below 5:1 --Galloped $14.30

Race 2 - Super Joy - Chadwick actually rode this one last time like he's a real jock - not a challenged nonagenarian posing as one. 3:1 chalk presently - Should Gallop - I need odds increase to bet with the clown up.
Won $8.40 DD $42.00

Race 3 - Vantastic Choice - 1st time dirt - Speed 2ND Strive For Glory - best dirt races in the field - late runner - hard to figure out Hinokami Kagura - late running plug - don't think much of this one but Purton gets up so, low odds - defensive play. SCRATCHED

Race 4 - Diamond Flare - 5.1 chalk - speed - cruises New Power - 1st time dirt - nothing special on the turf

Race 6 - Toronado Phantom - needs some pace - might not get it Victory Moment - nice dirt form but Chadwick is up 2ND Sing Dragon - appears to be lone speed - unless Campione wakes up WON QUINELLA $7.20

Doing my part - No ADW cooperation.

[lamboguy]

the rebates on Hong Kong racing are so small, it hardly makes a difference. Hong Kong gives you great action though. you are betting into $5million win pools where you are not budging the odds at all. people that play into Hong Kong pools don't care about rebates. the only problem i have with Hong Kong is winning there,

[denniswilliams]

Not looking for rebates. Just want to be able to bet. Haven't been able to the past 2 cards with Twinspires and it's cost me quite a bit. Moreover, TS doesn't offer doubles and only a single pick 3.

As for the pools, yeah, it's nice to have large pools but there's a ton of action there and horses are always getting hammered late. The good thing, however, is that most of them don't win.

I think the way to win @ Hong Kong is to just watch a lot of races and follow the horses. Been doing that more and more and it's starting to pay off.