Down to $50.00: Strategies?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Based on your own record keeping, which bets have a positive ROI for you?

I'm convinced some people are in the game to make money, but most people would be there, win or lose, because of the challenge and the excitement. If you want to make money, focus on the bets that you are good at.

I've often advised casual players to break their bankroll up 50-25-25, win-exacta-anything else. This way you have a chance at cashing 25-30% of the time, and getting a decent ROI. Win and exacta are also advantageous pools at most tracks. But you also have an opportunity to play the more exotic bets so your day isn't boring.

The other thing I advise is to only bet to win when you have an overlay, and you can base that on your own assessment.

[whodoyoulike]

My suggestion ($10 or $20 bets) for treating your remaining BR was an attempt to eliminate the short bankroll pressure one experiences when betting. You won't be blowing it ($50) in any one attempt but if you can stay focused and just bet your best bet, you can last awhile until you're able to periodically build it up.

[Robert Fischer]

Starts with your realistic expectations / time commitment.

If you want to be able to bet all month on a $50 bank, you're approach will be much different than if you want to 'gamble' the $50 on one day to try to make a mini-score.

My 'geek' answer would be $1 Win bets(my adw requires using the mobile app at many tracks to bet in $1 increments). You can consider $1 Place or even Show, if you happen to have a situational play that provides exceptional value for one of these minor awards.
The premise involves fudging Kelly, and wagering approximately 1-2% of your bankroll per race. If your bankroll doubled or tripled, you'd be betting a whopping $2 per race.
example:
1st race = I think the 7/5 fav is suspect. He's in for 5k today and he was claimed for 15 in December. is logical. , are prices.
Ticket =$1 place
2nd race = the is a solid favorite. =potential wire-2-wire. = horse I liked a little in a 'key' race involving some of the favorites in today's race.
Ticket= $1 win
3rd race = Sparse field. Either or should win here.
Ticket = pass



While the above strategy is perhaps do-able for a guy on fixed income who wants his $50 to last a month's worth of play, it isn't very realistic for a weekend warrior who wants to gamble.

$12 is a fairly 'solid' number for a $50 gambling bankroll. Some decent paying, and naturally constructed Exactas, Tri's, Supers, DD's, Pick3's can be had for $12 or less.
Try to restrict wagers to involving a strong opinion of at least 1 favorite (either races that you hate a heavy favorite, or perhaps love a single lukewarm favorite), and consider including a non-favorite or two in most every position.

example:
1st race = I think the 7/5 fav is suspect. He's in for 5k today and he was claimed for 15 in december. is logical. , are prices.
2nd race = the is a solid favorite. =potential wire-2-wire. = horse I liked a little in a 'key' race involving some of the favorites in today's race.
3rd race = Sparse field. Either or should win here.
Ticket = 50cent Pick 3 / / = $12

[dilanesp]

I think the question of how to gamble with a $50 bankroll is far less interesting than why anyone would want to.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think the question of how to gamble with a $50 bankroll is far less interesting than why anyone would want to.

I don't think he wants to do this. Instead it's just the way it is. Life just smacks a lot of people and it's up to us to adjust and/or just "roll with the punches" until you can stabilize the situation(s).

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I don't think he wants to do this. Instead it's just the way it is. Life just smacks a lot of people and it's up to us to adjust and/or just "roll with the punches" until you can stabilize the situation(s).

Correct, I am not looking to find myself with a measly $50 bankroll, but the times I do I admit my current strategies have not been working.

So, case in point WED 3/15 I looked at the GP early pick 5 and had a starting balance of $70.00 (YIKES). I felt I had a good handle on it until I hit race 5 which looked so wide open, too many directions to go. So taking whodoyoulike suggestion, I refashioned and played my strongest bet Stolen Sunday in Race 1. Was willing to play at 3-1 or better. I got the 3-1 and bet $20Win $10Place. Two other horses were getting lots of Place action so I figured I'd get back something on the Place. Horse won and bankroll doubled from $70.00 to $140+

Tried something else in Race 5 liking the longshot Ian Wilkes horse to hit the board. I played $20.00 to show. Close but no banana, finished 4th after leading into the stretch at huge odds.

So today I have a little more money to play with than WED, and thats a good thing. I just cant bring myself to make deposit if I have a fighting chance not to. I'm stubborn that way. That's the point of this.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

Sorry the horse was Who's Your Drama in Race 1 GP 3/15, mixed up the name from another race

[LottaKash]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I think the question of how to gamble with a $50 bankroll is far less interesting than why anyone would want to.

Some people want to...

Over the years, I have been up against it, a time or two, and I know that even having that Stupid $50 Bucks, was still a good reason to have some fun and perhaps make a few more bucks..

I am still here..

There are still people like that out there... Lots of em...

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Sorry the horse was Who's Your Drama in Race 1 GP 3/15, mixed up the name from another race

I'm really glad things worked out in that race.

Again, what I was attempting to do was to eliminate a short stack or scared money mental pressure when betting which others had mentioned. I appreciate the acknowledgment but it isn't needed because after all it was YOUR betting decision and it is always YOUR money. Just as I don't want to accept responsibility if it doesn't work out.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by FlintAtTheFetlock

Correct, I am not looking to find myself with a measly $50 bankroll, but the times I do I admit my current strategies have not been working.

So, case in point WED 3/15 I looked at the GP early pick 5 and had a starting balance of $70.00 (YIKES). I felt I had a good handle on it until I hit race 5 which looked so wide open, too many directions to go. So taking whodoyoulike suggestion, I refashioned and played my strongest bet Stolen Sunday in Race 1. Was willing to play at 3-1 or better. I got the 3-1 and bet $20Win $10Place. Two other horses were getting lots of Place action so I figured I'd get back something on the Place. Horse won and bankroll doubled from $70.00 to $140+

Tried something else in Race 5 liking the longshot Ian Wilkes horse to hit the board. I played $20.00 to show. Close but no banana, finished 4th after leading into the stretch at huge odds.

So today I have a little more money to play with than WED, and thats a good thing. I just cant bring myself to make deposit if I have a fighting chance not to. I'm stubborn that way. That's the point of this.

I think playing short like this is a great way to expand the tools you must use to win more consistently. Over the years I generally win a little or lose a little. The fewer times I have to fund the old account the better I feel about my game.

Sometimes building the short stack back up works but just as often I go to bust. Thask made a good point earlier when he said the deposit isn't really your bankroll. I know how much I need to put in every year so when I do it does not really matter.

[overthehill]

if your total bankroll is $50 you have to be very selective. and you also have to focus on price horses. i dont think you have enough money to play a pick 5. under certain conditions you could try a pick 4. I am a small bettor now and I mostly play $2-$10 a race or betting situation. if i play a pick 4 . it will be to capitalize on a potential overlay in a later race. and when i say overlay i mean relative to the morning line. if can find a horse in the last race that is morning line 10 to one or more that i think has a 20% chance of winning then I will try to construct a wining pick 4 around it because a lot of the time the favorites in the races preceeding the final race are good and likely to win.
I recently hit a pick 4 at gulfstream park with 3 odds on favorites and a 7-1 shot in the last race and the pick 4 paid around $75 for $1. but every body has a different strategy. I used to know a guy who would go to the track and bet the daily double. if he lost he went home if he hit he would stay and play. most of the time he would lose $100 but once he went home with over $25000! another guy comes with $30. he plays 4 $1 box exactas and one $2 win wager. if he loses three races he calls it a day. and this guy is a better than average handicapper. he probably wins more days than he loses.


You just have to recognize how much of a bankroll you need to play pick 5s. I suspect its at least $50 per pick 5. and you probably would be pretty good to hit one out of 40. so you probably need at least $4000 to be playing pick 5s and thats assuming you are good at it. if you play situations where the outcome is determined by one or two races you need less money and you can build up the bankroll very quickly. if you look at the florida derby. the favorite was a closer with an outside post position on a fairly speed favoiring track all you had to do was bet the second choice over the third choice and you are rewarded at 18-1 that pretty good risk/ return situation.

[upthecreek]

https://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/...ing-principles

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

https://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/...ing-principles

The person who wrote this article is obviously an idiot. Only an idiot would state that..."If you bet 5% of your bankroll per race, and you lose 20 races in a row, then you are tapped out".

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The person who wrote this article is obviously an idiot. Only an idiot would state that..."If you bet 5% of your bankroll per race, and you lose 20 races in a row, then you are tapped out".

That is pretty simple, I agree...

I love these betting theories as they instill fear and sell discipline to players. What I mean by that is, I love seeing people putting a square into a circle. Guys betting $100 pick 5's because that's their budget but the sequence calls for a minimum $400 expenditure. If my bankroll, hypothetically is $5,000 and I come across a SPA Pick 6 that costs $1400 to fully cover (I mean fully cover), I don't care if the bet is 28% of my roll. If I think the sequence will be highly profitable AND I think I have a great grasp of the sequence, I'm in

I feel these Kelly theories and restricting bankroll ideas are restricting and don't let you FULLY crush a horse/sequence you like. No pun intended but if you know, THIS horse can not run worse than 2nd, almost no matter what and you are getting $4 to place (if the chalk runs with your horse in the top 2), why bet 5% if you KNOW you're odds of hitting are 90% (in your line). As a winning player, you just KNOW when you see a 90% probability of something happening. You know which situtations are traps and you know which situations are "pushing" it. 5% bet??? No way.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The person who wrote this article is obviously an idiot. Only an idiot would state that..."If you bet 5% of your bankroll per race, and you lose 20 races in a row, then you are tapped out".

Confucius say, without idiots we would never be able to recognize the smart people.