Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-20-2018, 10:11 PM   #1
gabe
Registered User
 
gabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 143
Rep Power: 2 gabe is on a distinguished road
Exacta strategies

Most profitable way to bet an exacta? How do you bet exactas?

Weighted Exactas?
Exacta Boxes?
2x3
2x4
only when you have a single?
gabe is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-20-2018, 10:51 PM   #2
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Rep Power: 19 CincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the rough
Even payouts 6-1 or better. Make a payoff grid and go from there. Sometimes you will have to make decisions on if the favorite beats you play to break even. Or etcetera. Thinking about x return is key.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-22-2018, 11:58 PM   #3
Afleet
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,028
Rep Power: 7 Afleet will become famous soon enoughAfleet will become famous soon enough
I use exactas to dutch against my main plays
Afleet is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-23-2018, 08:57 AM   #4
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 31,180
Rep Power: 47 formula_2002 will become famous soon enough
I was just checking if a certain exacta strategy had any value.
the first thing I did was to calculate the exacta's fair value and compare it to the actual pay out.

fair value
two horses A and B

(1/(odds +1) of A)/booking % = say ,aodds
(1/(odds+1) of B)/say booking % = say, bodds

then aodds x (bodds/(1-aodds)) = exacta probability
1/exacta probability = fair $1 exacta payout.

note, booking % = the sum of 1/(odds +1) for all horse in the race.
__________________
http://EXACTAMATRIX.COM

Last edited by formula_2002; 02-23-2018 at 09:01 AM.
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2018, 06:24 PM   #5
HalvOnHorseracing
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Denver
Posts: 3,665
Rep Power: 7 HalvOnHorseracing is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by gabe View Post
Most profitable way to bet an exacta? How do you bet exactas?

Weighted Exactas?
Exacta Boxes?
2x3
2x4
only when you have a single?
For me, there are two points to betting exactas. One, you are trying to turn a solid low odds horse (a horse too low in odds to bet outright to win) into the 5-1 or higher horse you'd usually look for, by making an exacta bet. Second you have 2 or 3 inseparable horses, all around the same odds, and instead of making straight bets you look at potential exacta combinations.
HalvOnHorseracing is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2018, 09:37 PM   #6
BELMONT 6-6-09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,221
Rep Power: 15 BELMONT 6-6-09 will become famous soon enough
The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.
BELMONT 6-6-09 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2018, 02:52 PM   #7
AltonKelsey
Registered User
 
AltonKelsey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 1,352
Rep Power: 4 AltonKelsey will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.

I guess his horses never ran second
AltonKelsey is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2018, 09:21 PM   #8
BELMONT 6-6-09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,221
Rep Power: 15 BELMONT 6-6-09 will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by AltonKelsey View Post
I guess his horses never ran second
He obviously did not care if his horses ran second he played lean and mean LOL
BELMONT 6-6-09 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2018, 09:57 PM   #9
thaskalos
The Sleeper Must Awaken
 
thaskalos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 21,598
Rep Power: 43 thaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to beholdthaskalos is a splendid one to behold
Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09 View Post
The late movie producer Martin Rhitt was described as a very successful horse player and he made 1X3 exacta keys for $40 and never turned them around.
Steve Davidowitz recommends the same exacta strategy in his book BETTING THOROUGHBREDS: 21st Century edition.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-26-2018, 10:03 PM   #10
BELMONT 6-6-09
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 1,221
Rep Power: 15 BELMONT 6-6-09 will become famous soon enough
In the book Six Secrets of Successful Betting Gerry Okenuff, who went to the races with Rhitt for years talked about his tremendous discipline and ability to never turn around his 1X3 exactas not even for a dime. He played back in the days when the California tracks had the $5 exactas only.
BELMONT 6-6-09 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2018, 12:01 PM   #11
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,828
Rep Power: 10 AndyC has a spectacular aura aboutAndyC has a spectacular aura about
In my view there are 2 times to make an exacta bet. One is to leverage an overlay I see in the win pool and two is to bet when I believe a low priced horse will be out of the top 2. In the first instance, I have found that overlays in the win pool carryover to overlays in the exacta pool. I did not find that the overlay carried over to playing the win overlay in the 2nd spot of the exacta. Hence, I see no reason to reverse the exacta bet made with my win pool overlay. When I feel a low-priced horse will run out of the top 2 boxing contenders is the preferred play.

I have rarely found a situation where an underlay in the win pool could be turned into an overlay in the exacta pools. It usually creates negative leverage.
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2018, 02:12 PM   #12
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 17,523
Rep Power: 31 Robert Fischer has a spectacular aura aboutRobert Fischer has a spectacular aura about
Can get into full-on geek-mode, but the basics are pretty good advice here:
  • bet the overlay
  • don't 'box'
  • look for opportunities to exclude a favorite
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2018, 02:33 PM   #13
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,289
Rep Power: 19 CincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the rough
Aren't we beyond strategy but all about making the money? Thaskalos taught me that. Crist and others laid the groundwork in the most basic but effective terms. Here is a race from 2/23. I am not a big bettor so I think every player can relate. I bet $30-40 on in race exotics but it can snowball with across and win bets. I am usually in the $40-100 range but here is my basic exotic play. Very basic.

Combination-$1 payoff-denomination-payoff

Race 11 Gulfstream Park 2/23/18

8-10--$244--$2--$488

10-8--$168--$2--$336

8-7--$235--$2--$470

7-8--$182--$2--$364

7-10--$43--$7--$301

10-7--$38--$8--$304

I bet $10 to win on the horse at 33-1. An easy end around to the payoff scenario . A few more peripherals and the total bet was $37.

Finish was 7-8-9. The actual return with plummeting exactas was 297.20. This was a good day as I hit 2 more that paidd $248 and $270.

I needed a kick in my ass to think in this basic manner. The handicapping obsession is a good one but ultimately you have to be making money or you aren't a victim of takeout and conspiracy but the willful participation of not capitalizing on your intelligence.
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2018, 03:22 PM   #14
Denny
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 621
Rep Power: 0 Denny will become famous soon enough
What happened to Crist?

Took his Eclipse award and went home - deserting the sport he lived off?
Denny is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-27-2018, 03:28 PM   #15
PaceAdvantage
PA Steward
 
PaceAdvantage's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: New York
Posts: 58,097
Rep Power: 89 PaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud ofPaceAdvantage has much to be proud of
Well, let's see...he's 61...had a heart attack a few years ago that landed him in the hospital for two weeks according to press reports...

That could be a reason for him scaling back...but you're probably right...he probably just upped and "deserted the sport he lived off of"

Does everyone owe you a living, or just people in racing?
PaceAdvantage is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Who wins HOY? Accelerate or Justify?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.