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Old 08-29-2014, 03:58 PM   #1
letswastemoney
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Woodward S. discussion

I picked Zivo in my analysis hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh

Last edited by letswastemoney; 08-29-2014 at 04:01 PM.
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Old 08-29-2014, 07:18 PM   #2
pele polo
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ROMANSH !!!

and Itsmyluckday

Moreno 3rd.
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Old 08-29-2014, 07:21 PM   #3
Robert Fischer
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GOOD / BAD ?

Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
1a Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
2 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
7 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
8 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
9 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L
The GOOD thing about Long River is that he's coupled with Romansh, the BAD thing is that he's too slow.

The GOOD thing about Romansh is that his recent form is hidden with two bad trips, the BAD thing is that he has yet to prove he's a Grade-1 contender.

The GOOD thing about Itsmyluckyday is that he is a solid Grade-2 horse, the BAD thing is that he's got a really cool name, and was popular on the triple crown trail last year.

The GOOD thing about Micromanage is his relentless stamina, the BAD thing is that the public will over-bet this Pletcher trainee off his 8 length marathon score.

The GOOD thing about Moreno is his classy speed, the BAD thing is that his odds were 5x better last race!

The GOOD thing about Prayer for Relief is his bad looking recent form, the BAD thing is his lack of a winning punch.

The GOOD thing about Zivo is the lack of Grade-1 titans in this field, the BAD thing is he won with a good trip at 3x the odds last race.

The GOOD thing about Nurumbega is the life he showed running past Micromanage late in the Brooklyn, the BAD thing is he needed the whole 1.5 miles to run him down.

The GOOD thing about Last Gunfighter is that Chad Brown is his trainer, the BAD thing is he drew the 9 post again.

The GOOD thing about Stephanoatsee is getting Rosario on the longest shot on the board, the BAD thing is he deserves to be the longest shot on the board!
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-29-2014 at 07:34 PM.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:16 PM   #4
Tor Ekman
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Well done, RF. I'll be watching but not wagering.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:37 PM   #5
ArlJim78
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Strange to see so many equipment changes in a top GR1 - blinkers on.
I'm thinking this goes to a come from behinder, Zivo or perhaps Norumbega
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:10 PM   #6
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I could see the Its My Lucky Day possibly having designs on the lead--blinkers on and rail post-maybe they try to take it right to Moreno.

One I kinda like here at a price is the Prayer for Relief.

Maybe he can work out a trip somewhere just behind the speed,and get first run on the deeper closers.Like ArlJim, I see this one being won from off the pace,and at likely double digit odds he is my play here.
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:11 PM   #7
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Don't think there will be much value in the race, Moreno and Lucky are the rightful favs and no one seems to be fast enough to beat them both.
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Old 08-29-2014, 10:07 PM   #8
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I see itsmyluckyday, moreno and prayer for relief as the contenders.

The and I'm hoping will duel for the lead after the half leaving the to close nicely. I'll take 5/2 on the in 1:49 +/-.

Also, depends on how the looks warming up.
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Old 08-29-2014, 10:25 PM   #9
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I like Zivo.
He passes the eye test for me.
He kind of sits there, then he shifts gears and comes home pretty easily.
I think he's really talented.
I don't like the blinkers going on Itsmyluckyday at all.
This guy is all heart,fires a big shot every race and now they want to make an equipment change off of a giant second place finish.......If it ain't broke,don't fix it.
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Old 08-29-2014, 11:18 PM   #10
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We may have a Travers scenario where LuckyDay engages Moreno earlier than we think and they get after one another.
The former gets 2lbs from Moreno this time - he was conceding 2lbs in the Whitney.

I think someone will be coming and get by these two.

Zivo and Prayer For Relief are likely the ones, with the latter getting in relatively light at 118lbs.
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Old 08-29-2014, 11:55 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I picked Zivo in my analysis hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh
This is a fine field and a great sendoff to Saratoga 2014.
Should be a good betting race.
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Old 08-30-2014, 12:00 AM   #12
thespaah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letswastemoney
I picked Zivo in my analysis hoping that Moreno gets more pressure this time. It's always fun to read a discussion though!

Who do you like, and state the reasoning behind your pick?

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $600,000

1 Itsmyluckyday Lopez P 120 Blk-On L
2 Long River Ortiz I Jr 120 Blk-On L
3 Micromanage Maragh R 120 L
4 Moreno Alvarado J 122 L
5 Prayer for Relief Velazquez J R 118 L
6 Romansh Ortiz J L 120 L
7 Zivo Lezcano J 120 L
8 Norumbega Castellano J J 120 Blk-On L
9 Last Gunfighter Bravo J 120 L
10 Stephanoatsee Rosario J 118 L

A-Coupled: Long River and Romansh
I would prefer to not see the same deal as we saw in the Travers where the main speed, Bayern, needed to be challenged. Unfortunately that challenger was one of the other top contenders. Of course the pressure on the front end was too much for Bayern and he spat out the bit.
Now, I see Moreno as a threat to get a clear lead then settle. If he is permitted to set the tempo, he wins.
If Moreno is pressured for the first 5 or 6F, he may also finish like he's towing a Wurlitzer.
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Old 08-30-2014, 12:02 AM   #13
thespaah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
We may have a Travers scenario where LuckyDay engages Moreno earlier than we think and they get after one another.
The former gets 2lbs from Moreno this time - he was conceding 2lbs in the Whitney.

I think someone will be coming and get by these two.

Zivo and Prayer For Relief are likely the ones, with the latter getting in relatively light at 118lbs.
If I get to bet this race, I'm looking for the "from the mid pack closers"...
Speed duel, then the mid packer picks up the pieces.
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Old 08-30-2014, 12:07 AM   #14
thespaah
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
The GOOD thing about Long River is that he's coupled with Romansh, the BAD thing is that he's too slow.

The GOOD thing about Romansh is that his recent form is hidden with two bad trips, the BAD thing is that he has yet to prove he's a Grade-1 contender.

The GOOD thing about Itsmyluckyday is that he is a solid Grade-2 horse, the BAD thing is that he's got a really cool name, and was popular on the triple crown trail last year.

The GOOD thing about Micromanage is his relentless stamina, the BAD thing is that the public will over-bet this Pletcher trainee off his 8 length marathon score.

The GOOD thing about Moreno is his classy speed, the BAD thing is that his odds were 5x better last race!

The GOOD thing about Prayer for Relief is his bad looking recent form, the BAD thing is his lack of a winning punch.

The GOOD thing about Zivo is the lack of Grade-1 titans in this field, the BAD thing is he won with a good trip at 3x the odds last race.

The GOOD thing about Nurumbega is the life he showed running past Micromanage late in the Brooklyn, the BAD thing is he needed the whole 1.5 miles to run him down.

The GOOD thing about Last Gunfighter is that Chad Brown is his trainer, the BAD thing is he drew the 9 post again.

The GOOD thing about Stephanoatsee is getting Rosario on the longest shot on the board, the BAD thing is he deserves to be the longest shot on the board!
Post position in a 9f race never really comes into consideration. Unless of course the speed is on the inside with the secondary speeds to the outside. In this scenario it is difficult for the main speed to get to the lead.
If the horse is a dead closer post 9 doesn't hurt.
I guess the only time an outside or worse yet, the rail or post 2, is when the stalker gets buried down there.

Last edited by thespaah; 08-30-2014 at 12:09 AM.
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Old 08-30-2014, 12:17 AM   #15
JustRalph
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are obvious and maybe it runs to form, but that never stopped me from betting something else...............


These jockey changes in this race are very interesting to me.



This is coming off a huge race. Does that hold up?

Shug coming back in here intrigues me. Velazquez getting on the makes me think he is ready for a big race. But who knows why these jocks are switching around.
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