Stock Market Prediction

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I disagree when you see that type of warning in a financial report, you need to weigh it appropriately. Those types of warnings are not taken lightly because of the financial ramifications for those providing the warnings. But, I do agree in sports etc., one's intuition (or opinions) carries more weight.

i'm not saying not to listen to the 10k. i even stated right away it looks abominable. this stock is basically a risk reward play.

lets say they only have enough money for 6 months, if they don't come up with any they are basically out of business. we know that ahead of time with this equity. the company needs a deal or a big order and they need it fast.

from personal experience, you don't need to be flush with cash to make a successful business. i did it in the car leasing business with $2500 and a credit card that had a $3000 line. within 1 year i became the largest independent car lease company in North America. all you need is something that someone else needs and you will do plenty of business.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i'm not saying not to listen to the 10k. i even stated right away it looks abominable. this stock is basically a risk reward play.

lets say they only have enough money for 6 months, if they don't come up with any they are basically out of business. we know that ahead of time with this equity. the company needs a deal or a big order and they need it fast.

from personal experience, you don't need to be flush with cash to make a successful business. i did it in the car leasing business with $2500 and a credit card that had a $3000 line. within 1 year i became the largest independent car lease company in North America. all you need is something that someone else needs and you will do plenty of business.

Well, I've mentioned before that I like your gutsy moves.

I'm really (maybe just a little) not trying to dissuade you on this. But, you're just too gutsy for me on this type of "investment".

Or, maybe you just have too much money compared to me.

[_______]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

with the utmost of all respect, you aren't going to make any money reading reports of what has happened. you have to be able to use your intuition to predict the future. its really the same in anything in life, horse racing, stock picking, sporting events, elections, marriages and relationships. you name it and you are in trouble trying to predict the future using the past. the reason for this is because we live in a world and the planet earth keeps spinning around the world. movements mean changes, changes mean lower probability in being able to predict.

these probably are the good reason's why humans tend to pick the wrong way most of the time.

maybe you have happened to have predicted the right direction for my stock pick of SFOR. i highly doubt it though but will give you some credit that there is a very small probability that happen to be right. time will eventually be the final arbitrator of that.

by the way i am not picking on you even though you did slam me quite a few times on Massachusetts in this past presidential election. congratulations on being right on that state. but you see it really doesn't bother me because i understand how tough it is for most people to be forward thinkers instead they are relying on history to make their choices in life.

You and I approach investing in stocks very differently. That's okay.

I didn't really post the 10-k for your benefit. I never expected it would matter to you.

But since the stock market prediction thread has recently become the daily discussion of this single penny stock, I wanted to inject a different point of view from yours.

I get that it's an exciting ride. That's not what a lot of people want. The 10-k was to supposed to be a warning to anyone who wants to sleep well at night about what could happen to their money if they decided to follow you.

I hope you do well on this. The one thing I'll warn you on is that as illiquid as this stock is today, you are going to find offers completely disappear as the clock runs out if you don't get the white knight you seem convinced is just around the corner.

[Parkview_Pirate]

10 days ago I was looking for a decline to 2260 on the S&P. Still may happen, but the sideways chop now points higher. That is if you believe in Elliot Wave theory. So,

Bullish Outlook:

S&P breaks above 2361 or so, holds, and then the run to new highs above 2400 begin. May take two days to three months to play out. But, if a "wave 5" move, can truncate without warning. In theory, the Fed committed to keeping prices propped up, though their guidance on interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction would have the opposite effect.

Bearish Outlook:

S&P breaks below 2320 or so, holds, and then runs down to 2260, playing out over a week to two months. Headwinds like the debt ceiling, congressional gridlock, government shutdown, declining tax receipts, French election and the Euro, shooting war over N. Korea, expanded shooting war in the Middle East, etc., are all potential catalysts to set off a waterfall. But that's where the phrase "wall of worry" comes in.

The last 10 days the downward moves did not have the impulse required to take the market lower, and now it looks like the short-term trend is up and the intermediate trend becoming up as well. Got very lucky twice this week, getting out of a long position on Wed morning before a reversal and dive, and getting out of a short position this morning (with one tick to spare), before the rocket ride north began. With all the wedges, triangles, pivots, and sharp reversals in the mix, I'll be sitting on the sidelines until one of the two outlooks above becomes apparent.....

[lamboguy]

SFOR up less than 1% today.

watch out next week with the equity markets, they might take a huge hit.

[Tape Reader]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

SFOR up less than 1% today.

watch out next week with the equity markets, they might take a huge hit.

Why might they take a huge hit?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Tape Reader

Why might they take a huge hit?

there are some cycles that come up next week that do not bode well for markets. plus there is a strong possibility that a war might break out when you look at what is going on the world today between North Korea and the middle east

[_______]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

there are some cycles that come up next week that do not bode well for markets. plus there is a strong possibility that a war might break out when you look at what is going on the world today between North Korea and the middle east

Wars are good for markets, not bad.

And there is no more of a possibility of one next week than there was last.

[sammy the sage]

Originally Posted by _______

Wars are good for markets, not bad.

And there is no more of a possibility of one next week than there was last.

Maybe long term...NOT short term...which is what is being discussed currently...also with those S. americans in V...not good news....

[_______]

Originally Posted by sammy the sage

Maybe long term...NOT short term...which is what is being discussed currently...also with those S. americans in V...not good news....

Uncertainty is bad for markets. The beginning of a military action by U.S. forces marks the end of uncertainty.

Barron's just ran an article on this subject listing the 8 times since the 1980's that the U.S. has launched a military mission and comparing the market 1 month before and 1 month after that date.

The market isn't just up in every instance following the start of a war, it's up significantly more than the average up month.

So DEFINTLY short term. Maybe long term.

I'd link this but it's behind the Dow Jones paywall. If you subscribe look for the article "War is Hell...but not for the Stock Market" for details.

[lamboguy]

i am figuring that its going to be a 2 step process to take this market apart. i am looking for a decent hit sometime this upcoming week and maybe another good sized one the end of june or july. i should be able to zero in and get more precise as far as dates go for the 2nd take down after seeing what happens this week if it does get clocked.

[_______]

Outside of a black swan, the most likely generator of market volatility next week would be Congressional inaction on the debt ceiling. That might qualify as a very light grey swan since I think an assumption it won't happen is built in.

Decades from now, there will be doctoral candidates in economics trying to explain why an 8 year bull market was so hated in every stage of it's existence. People will scour sites like this for information on investor attitudes.

I think the market will eventually go down the same way every other bull market ended. With excessive enthusiasm.

So long as I can read multiple posts about why it's overvalued (I've contributed a few), there's a floor. This ain't the 90's. It's definitely not 2007.

I think the business cycle still exists. But a deep recession like we went through results in a shallow u shaped recovery. We're used to v's and people are looking for the peak they expect every 5 years and thinking it's late.

It's not. And the next recession (when it comes) won't be a repeat of 2008. It'll be normal.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by _______

Outside of a black swan, the most likely generator of market volatility next week would be Congressional inaction on the debt ceiling. That might qualify as a very light grey swan since I think an assumption it won't happen is built in.

Decades from now, there will be doctoral candidates in economics trying to explain why an 8 year bull market was so hated in every stage of it's existence. People will scour sites like this for information on investor attitudes.

I think the market will eventually go down the same way every other bull market ended. With excessive enthusiasm.

So long as I can read multiple posts about why it's overvalued (I've contributed a few), there's a floor. This ain't the 90's. It's definitely not 2007.

I think the business cycle still exists. But a deep recession like we went through results in a shallow u shaped recovery. We're used to v's and people are looking for the peak they expect every 5 years and thinking it's late.

It's not. And the next recession (when it comes) won't be a repeat of 2008. It'll be normal.

fortunately i learned not to listen to anyone.

for my prediction here i am using cycle work based strictly on time. i threw in a possible fundamental reason, but i don't know for sure even if the market cracks that its going to be the reason.

by my work it looks like the market can take a big hit tuesday or wednesday.

just to warn you ahead of time, i can't believe how many times i have predicted a big move in the market ahead of time and if i predicted down it would go up huge on that day. the prediction i have right now is a pretty strong one, things really point strongly on this move. we shall see next week what happens.

[_______]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

fortunately i learned not to listen to anyone.

for my prediction here i am using cycle work based strictly on time. i threw in a possible fundamental reason, but i don't know for sure even if the market cracks that its going to be the reason.

by my work it looks like the market can take a big hit tuesday or wednesday.

just to warn you ahead of time, i can't believe how many times i have predicted a big move in the market ahead of time and if i predicted down it would go up huge on that day. the prediction i have right now is a pretty strong one, things really point strongly on this move. we shall see next week what happens.

If I read this correctly then you are predicting a big downturn Tuesday or Wednesday. Unless it's a rally in which case you will also be correct.

Are you sure you don't want to add some brackets to the timeframe?

There's still a chance you could be wrong otherwise.

I won't pin you down on any numerical specificity for "big move". That way you can claim any normal volatility as confirmation.

[lamboguy]

i am predicting it goes down big. i am placing my bets for 2 down days. i would say it would have to go down at least 35 s+p points for this prediction to be correct.

all i said in the prior post is that sometimes the cycle is inverted.