Live Handicappers' Exposition: Part 2

[baconswitchfarm]

[QUOTE=traynor]" It might be better viewed as the equivalent of an independent consultant, who is able to choose when, where, how long, and for how much he or she "works," picking and choosing only projects that are interesting, challenging, and quite rewarding. With the option of working or not working for a day, a week, or a month--at his or her sole choice--if the inclination arises.



I read this to other guys who bet for a living so they could have a good laugh too.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Maximillion

traynor
If I understand correctly,what you do is fully automated....my question is this...Do you ever look at your queued bets for the day and say "Na, not this one.....its 2 for 37 and the pattern (or whatever) may be a tease"(or some such thing).... .or do you find in the long run its better to just stick with your application?
Not being snarky...an honest question.
In other words,do you sometimes "overide" your potential bets?

What I do is partially automated. That is, specific portions involve very little decision-making on individual races. Wagers are made according to models. Other portions use models, but all decisions are made in real time according to the individual attributes of the entries in that particular race--the only thing automated is the modeling process.

[traynor]

[QUOTE=baconswitchfarm]

Originally Posted by traynor

" It might be better viewed as the equivalent of an independent consultant, who is able to choose when, where, how long, and for how much he or she "works," picking and choosing only projects that are interesting, challenging, and quite rewarding. With the option of working or not working for a day, a week, or a month--at his or her sole choice--if the inclination arises.



I read this to other guys who bet for a living so they could have a good laugh too.

If you folks have to work 80 hours a week to earn your beans and beer, you might consider working at Wal-Mart. With time and a half after 40 hours, it would probably net you more income, as well as being much less stressful. Something to think about while you folks are sitting around discussing the realities of wagering for a living.

[baconswitchfarm]

The difference is i am discussing the realities of wagering for a living with other people like myself, who wager for a living. We are not selling books, or theories of what might make it possible to wager for a living. I have an idea though which will take some hours out of my work day. I figured out over the last ten thousand races that horses dropping in class, and cutting back in distance, while on the River Downs turf course, with a jockey change to a Panamanian rider, under a full moon, in the horses month of birth, while in the six gate, while the third choice is a late scratch, on a Tuesday, have a positive ROI % while bet in a show parlay with the favorite in the first race. Of course I eliminated all the outliers. I will just use this to make six figures next year again and not work nearly so hard.
Good luck with your seminar Dave.

[Tom]

The full moon - that is the missing link!
Thanks you so much! I now have it all!

[eurocapper]

The wai I see it there are two basic propositions.
1. Most horseplayers are stupid and one just needs a little effort or some special insight to find some permanent angle in order to beat them in a mechanical manner. That angle is to be found through statistical analysis.
2. Most horseplayers are smart and one needs to do more work than they do to win consistently. Computer applications can be helpful but are not required.

Maybe 1. used to be the state of things, but 2. closer to the truth nowadays.

[Tom]

Congratulations you are making money at the game of horse race wagering, but why should anyone else care but you; not unless they have a vested interest in your wagerimg. For you stating why someone come to this forum is just conjecture on your part to further an insidious agenda because I don't believe you know why the people who come here in anonimity, come here.

You miss the point.
The object of horse race wagering is to make money.
You and Traynor never get to the end game. Endless theoretical discussion without any validation of it is pointless. My point was that all the while this what we should do talk has been going on, people are out there using the stuff you put down to make real money.
One wonders if you guys ever actually bet.......

[cj]

Originally Posted by Tom

Endless theoretical discussion without any validation of it is pointless.

Bingo.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by baconswitchfarm

The difference is i am discussing the realities of wagering for a living with other people like myself, who wager for a living. We are not selling books, or theories of what might make it possible to wager for a living. I have an idea though which will take some hours out of my work day. I figured out over the last ten thousand races that horses dropping in class, and cutting back in distance, while on the River Downs turf course, with a jockey change to a Panamanian rider, under a full moon, in the horses month of birth, while in the six gate, while the third choice is a late scratch, on a Tuesday, have a positive ROI % while bet in a show parlay with the favorite in the first race. Of course I eliminated all the outliers. I will just use this to make six figures next year again and not work nearly so hard.
Good luck with your seminar Dave.

This angle should help and there is no charge except for the addons and works on any given day at the track.
On a even day you eliminate all the odd number horses in a race, you then look at the pp for the horses last race in days and elimiinate all the odd days for remaining horses and these are your contenders, If you have to go further to eliminate contenders i am working on that as i only have very small sample database.

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by Tom

You miss the point.
The object of horse race wagering is to make money.
You and Traynor never get to the end game. Endless theoretical discussion without any validation of it is pointless. My point was that all the while this what we should do talk has been going on, people are out there using the stuff you put down to make real money.
One wonders if you guys ever actually bet.......

Let me preface this by saying that I'm singling you out. I'm genuinely happy that you're cashing tickets and making money doing what you love to do. I appreciate your obvious intelligence and great sense of humor. However, I've yet to read any of your posts which I could categorize as thought-provoking. "Endless theoretical discussion" is what drives us to consider and test new ideas and to make them our own and enables us to "cash tickets" and "make real money". I could regale you with stories about "cashing tickets" and "making real money" that would make your head spin, but it wouldn't put a penny to your pocket. However, just one new idea that germinates and comes to fruition inside of you can make more money for you than you ever thought possible. Again, I mean the above respectfully and not in a mean-spirited way.

[Tom]

However, just one new idea that germinates and comes to fruition inside of you can make more money for you than you ever thought possible.

I agree 100% with you.
But we don't seem to get to that point here.
I would love to see some of this stuff put to practice.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Endless theoretical discussion without any validation of it is pointless.

One wonders if you guys ever actually bet.......

There you go!

[Magister Ludi]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Let me preface this by saying that I'm singling you out. I'm genuinely happy that you're cashing tickets and making money doing what you love to do. I appreciate your obvious intelligence and great sense of humor. However, I've yet to read any of your posts which I could categorize as thought-provoking. "Endless theoretical discussion" is what drives us to consider and test new ideas and to make them our own and enables us to "cash tickets" and "make real money". I could regale you with stories about "cashing tickets" and "making real money" that would make your head spin, but it wouldn't put a penny to your pocket. However, just one new idea that germinates and comes to fruition inside of you can make more money for you than you ever thought possible. Again, I mean the above respectfully and not in a mean-spirited way.

Tom,

I inadvertantly left out the word "not" in my previous post. I meant to say, "Let me preface this by saying that I'm NOT singling you out". You certainly don't have a corner on that market. I apologize for any misunderstanding.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Let me preface this by saying that I'm singling you out. I'm genuinely happy that you're cashing tickets and making money doing what you love to do. I appreciate your obvious intelligence and great sense of humor. However, I've yet to read any of your posts which I could categorize as thought-provoking. "Endless theoretical discussion" is what drives us to consider and test new ideas and to make them our own and enables us to "cash tickets" and "make real money". I could regale you with stories about "cashing tickets" and "making real money" that would make your head spin, but it wouldn't put a penny to your pocket. However, just one new idea that germinates and comes to fruition inside of you can make more money for you than you ever thought possible. Again, I mean the above respectfully and not in a mean-spirited way.

Quite right. Saying you are successful is just talk. Posting a substantial example of that success is something else. By substantial, I would think a whole meet at the same track, or 3 or 4 months at mixed tracks would be good enough to at least lend credence to your claims. A full year is even better. Chances are that if you can show success for a complete year, you are capable of repeating it, of course nobody can guarantee anything in the future, but at least some one who shows some example of more than a few races or cards would take much of the doubt out of his/her claims.

But, someone who continually posts negative remarks, and espouses that they know the best way, without producing any example of that method, ever, has no merit here, or anywhere else. Just saying that they have no interest in convincing anyone of anything, while continually posting the same things as being better, or even good, makes them a liar, pure and simple, and "once a liar always a liar", you can never again trust anything that person says.

So, how can one take any "nugget" of information from anything such a person might post? Why would one want to waste their time on something said by such a person, one they can't trust as being, at least, honest?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

Tom,

I inadvertantly left out the word "not" in my previous post. I meant to say, "Let me preface this by saying that I'm NOT singling you out". You certainly don't have a corner on that market. I apologize for any misunderstanding.

No problem.
I'm usually on someone's list or another!
I didn't even catch it.