What makes a bettable race?

[Robert Goren]

What makes a bettable race? There seems to some opinion that a large field does it by itself. Or large handles does. That is not true for me. First there has to be a horse I like a lot to win it. Second, there has be a horse( preferably 2) I don't like getting betting bet heavily. 3 or 4 horses with a very small chance of winning going off at 15/1 or higher doesn't cut it. Neither do horses going off at even money or less. I generally want at least 2/1 and a horse I don't like going off at 3/1 or less. With todays takeouts, the well bet horse with a small chance of winning is vital. Since I am a very small mostly win better handle does not come into play at all, although I can see how it might if you are betting large amounts especially in the exotic pools. What does it take for you?

[lamboguy]

a race that is full of first time starters and a horse in it that fooled the clockers and wiseguys.

[HUSKER55]

I hunt for races where I think the favorite is in tight. I try to find the horse that can beat it.

[therussmeister]

There also seem to be some who are of the opinion that a small field, by itself, makes the race unbettable. For me, it doesn't. A bettable race is simply one where I find an overlay. I assign probability to every potential bet I consider making and than calculate minimum acceptable payout based on this.

I find overlays in all types and sizes of races, and can't find overlays in all types and sizes of races. Therefore, unfortunately, I can't pin down before handicapping and viewing the tote board, which races are likely to be bettable with a few exceptions that have to do with my handicapping weaknesses.

[Robert Goren]

I would like to add that often the public has the chances of all the horses pretty close to right or least close enough to make finding a profitable bet impossible. The 16+% takeout rates are very hard to overcome.

[Charli125]

Good question.

For me personally, I only look at races with over 5 starters. Through my ROI research, I've found that I'll lose money on short fields. I also look for races with few if any first time starters.

Only at that point do I look to see if there are any overlays.

The only time pool size comes into account for me is in how much I bet. I know I ignore some tracks because the pool sizes are so small that a $50 bet would change the odds.

[Dave Schwartz]

While some race conditions obviously lend themselves to less favorites and more longshots, I feel strongly that it is the mix of horses in the individual race that determines playability.

In other words, there may be a 6-horse field with a 2/5 favorite you perceive as being significantly overbet, thereby creating a wonderful opportunity for you to exploit the race by wagering the rest of the field.

Conversely, there may be a 12-horse field with a favorite so good that he looks like the "dead nuts" (as they say in our vernacular).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[thaskalos]

The older I get, the more conservative I become...and this carries over to my horseplaying as well...

My confidence in a race peaks when I see mature horses, with full past-performances, and established form over the current track.

When I see sharp-looking shippers, layoffs, and young horses with sketchy past-performances...my interest wanes, and my money stays in my pocket.

[BombsAway Bob]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The older I get, the more conservative I become...and this carries over to my horseplaying as well...

My confidence in a race peaks when I see mature horses, with full past-performances, and established form over the current track.

When I see sharp-looking shippers, layoffs, and young horses with sketchy past-performances...my interest wanes, and my money stays in my pocket.

I love when a Horse that has had 6 or more starts runs a HUGE BEYER that is out of whack with their lifetime average figs. Invariably, the horse is crushed next start, often while MOVING UP in class.
Also, Any race where a horse with lifetime record like: 22starts, 2W - 7P - 3S & constantly bet down to one of the top two betting choices in an N3L race.

[Hanover1]

As an earlier poster replied, a seasoned field, well placed, with 8+ entrants does it for me. Cheaper fields i.e. N3L are the cup of tea for some, but not myself.

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Hanover1

As an earlier poster replied, a seasoned field, well placed, with 8+ entrants does it for me. Cheaper fields i.e. N3L are the cup of tea for some, but not myself.

I am just the opposite of Mr. Thaskalos...i love to find the shipper coming in,or the well bred firster,the horse coming off a layoff with a good work tab and back class and my favorite the horse making strong middle move and stepping up in class.....in my experience these are just some of the betting angles/horses the public seems to overlook.

[curious]

I look for a horse that has odds greater than or equal to 9-1, but has won a lot the last several races.

I find these guys all the time. I bet them X to win, 2X to place, and 4X to show. They might not win but they hit the board all the time.

[rrpic6]

Look at Pimlico when they run maidens or cheap claimers on the turf. They will have full fields with spotty running lines. Looking a little deeper into the family tree of these horses can find some juicy results.

RR

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by rrpic6

Look at Pimlico when they run maidens or cheap claimers on the turf. They will have full fields with spotty running lines. Looking a little deeper into the family tree of these horses can find some juicy results.

RR

I believe this holds true at most tracks,at least the ones that i play.

[iCoder]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

While some race conditions obviously lend themselves to less favorites and more longshots, I feel strongly that it is the mix of horses in the individual race that determines playability.

In other words, there may be a 6-horse field with a 2/5 favorite you perceive as being significantly overbet, thereby creating a wonderful opportunity for you to exploit the race by wagering the rest of the field.

Conversely, there may be a 12-horse field with a favorite so good that he looks like the "dead nuts" (as they say in our vernacular).


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

I have to agree with Dave. I like to catch a 2/5(1/9) that's over bet as well. The only difference for me is I like to bet the favorite as a key and go deeper on my bet. Had my biggest super payout that way even when the 1/9 won it. Of course it moved off 1/9 before post time but it held late and kept the odds up. If you can key one and go deep you can make some cash with the high odds field.

I also agree that a mid-sized field (8-12 horses) is better than a small or large field. No money in the small ones and too many angles in the large fields. Definitely better with lots of data (PPs) no matter what you're playing.

I also look for a purse over $20k. If the purse is there you'll have a better quality horse in the race that runs truer to form with greater repeatability.

By far, for deciding what race to bet versus another, I like to use consensus. The more sources I have agreeing with each other, my handicapping buddies, handicapping tools and internet/media sources the better I like it. If it includes the overlays I want, then it's a bet.