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Old 04-27-2023, 10:23 AM   #1
classhandicapper
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Derby Pace?

I just did a quick glance of the PPs. It doesn't look like there are any true front runners in the field. There are several horses that tend to race near the lead that might occasionally take the lead if the pace is comfortable or circumstances allow for it, but no real speed horses. The very large field practically ensures that a couple of them will be used a little early to secure position, but someone could get away a little easier than expected or someone could get compromised by being too far back unless someone pushes.

Anyone think the pace is going to be fast?
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Old 04-27-2023, 10:47 AM   #2
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Projected Pace

Front
Two Phil's
Practical Move
Kingsbarns
Verifying
Reincarnate
Wild On Ice

Presser
Confidence Game
Mage
Rocket Can

Stalker
Forte
Lord Miles
Derma Sotogake
Tapit Trice
Hit Show

Closer
Sun Thunder
Continuar
Raise Cain
Blazing Sevens
Disarm
Angel of Empire
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Old 04-27-2023, 11:00 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I just did a quick glance of the PPs. It doesn't look like there are any true front runners in the field. There are several horses that tend to race near the lead that might occasionally take the lead if the pace is comfortable or circumstances allow for it, but no real speed horses. The very large field practically ensures that a couple of them will be used a little early to secure position, but someone could get away a little easier than expected or someone could get compromised by being too far back unless someone pushes.

Anyone think the pace is going to be fast?
I'm not convinced that Jace's Road is the pacesetter in terms of natural early speed. He was outfooted by Kingsbarn at Fair Grounds and took back after trying to engage that one early in the race. The only race he actually set the pace in (Gun Runner) had tepid fractions. That said, he is the least preferred of the 4 B Cox horses, which makes him expendable & possibly in there solely as a rabbit. But does he truly have enough speed?

From what I've read, and hopefully someone with some skills can confirm, Derma Sotogake ran exceptionally fast in the UAE Derby at least as compared to older horses the Dubai World Cup later on the card. I presume that might mean that his pace performance was also above average. If so, he might be the sole frontrunner.

There's a slight chance that Kingsbarn could attempt to take the lead, too. He is light on foundation so perhaps wants to avoid being in and amongst horses in a roughly run race & Pletcher kills 2 birds with one stone as if he can't handle being up front, he will at least set it up for his two closers (Forte & Tapit Trice).

Meanwhile, history suggests that Baffert likes to send on Derby day (Medina Spirit, Authentic). Reincarnate won the Sham wire-to-wire as the bench warmer to more fancied stablemates Newgate & National Treasure. Baffert & Yakteen showed no interest in capitalizing on Reincarnate's willingness to close from off-the-pace after his troubled start in the Rebel. He pressed the pace early next time out in the Arkansas Derby. Wouldn't be shocked to see him go strong early.
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Old 04-27-2023, 11:04 AM   #4
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Projected Pace using BRIS Pace (using AE's too)

Early Pace
Confidence Game-102
Wild On Ice-99
Two Phil's-98
Reincarnate-96
Practical Move-95
Angel of Empire-94
Cyclone Mischief-94
Rocket Can-93
Mandarin Hero-92
Major Dude-91
Skinner-91
Verifying-90
Forte-90
Sun Thunder-89
Lord Miles-88
Mage-88
Hit Show-88
Tapit Trice-87
Blazing Sevens-82
Kingsbarns-78
Raise Cain-78
Jace's Road-76
Disarm-71
Derma Sotogake-N/A
Continuar-N/A

Late Pace
Disarm-110
Kingsbarns-109
Skinner-107
Mandarin Hero-106
Practical Move-103
Tapit Trice-102
Verifying-99
Jace's Road-98
Rocket Can-97
Forte-96
Mage-96
Major Dude-95
Angel of Empire-95
Lord Miles-95
Reincarnate-95
Raise Cain-95
Hit Show-93
Blazing Sevens-92
Two Phil's-89
Sun Thunder-89
Wild On Ice-89
Cyclone Mischief-88
Confidence Game-87
Derma Sotogake-N/A
Continuar-N/A
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Old 04-27-2023, 11:14 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I just did a quick glance of the PPs. It doesn't look like there are any true front runners in the field. There are several horses that tend to race near the lead that might occasionally take the lead if the pace is comfortable or circumstances allow for it, but no real speed horses. The very large field practically ensures that a couple of them will be used a little early to secure position, but someone could get away a little easier than expected or someone could get compromised by being too far back unless someone pushes.

Anyone think the pace is going to be fast?
Last year I thought it would be on the slower side and I was completely wrong.

This year thereís no e/p type that puts fear in your heart. Itíll be really interesting to see what practical move does if he draws more toward the inside. Has never been on the lead before

Generally I donít see a fast pace at all. But who knows. Pace setter should be kingsbarns verifying or practical move
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Old 04-27-2023, 11:23 AM   #6
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Looking at the workouts, I have a feeling one or both Japanese horses are going burner-mode, like what happened last year. I hope it doesn't happen, but I think it's possible.
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Old 04-27-2023, 11:53 AM   #7
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Last year I thought it would be on the slower side and I was completely wrong.

This year thereís no e/p type that puts fear in your heart. Itíll be really interesting to see what practical move does if he draws more toward the inside. Has never been on the lead before

Generally I donít see a fast pace at all. But who knows. Pace setter should be kingsbarns verifying or practical move
Um, I think Mage is one you have to fear with the E/P type running style IMO and might be my Derby pick this year

He was right there twice behind Forte in both of the preps they raced against each other and is the one who beat me twice for cashing tickets in those preps lol

In the Foutain Of Youth, he actually hit the starting gate then bumped Blazing Sevens right after the break then rushed 5 wide into the 1st turn; He pressed the pace the entire way and I thought he was going to win this race turning for home but unfortunately was too late making a bid to finish a solid 4th

In his last start the Florida Derby he was off slow as he broke last and was trailing at the first 2 calls; Then he made a huge run entering/exiting the top of the stretch to fight on Forte at the line which again I thought Forte was done but then again Forte got the last laugh to beat him just narrowly by 1 length

He is by a lower percentage win trainer but that doesn't matter as anyone can win the Derby! Also, his sire Good Magic finished 2nd in the 2018 edition of the Kentucky Derby and has that same running-type style that he passed down to Mage

One to definitely have a fighting chance for sure in this year's Derby
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Old 04-27-2023, 12:28 PM   #8
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I bet mage in the Florida derby and was super impressed. I guess Iím just worried about the distance. Did he get caught because he has limitations distance wise or because he had to make such a big move to get in that position?

He is one of the handful of horses that I wouldnít be surprised if he won.

I donít know if I would put any of the e/Ps in my top 5 most likely to win
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Old 04-27-2023, 12:29 PM   #9
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From what I've read, and hopefully someone with some skills can confirm, Derma Sotogake ran exceptionally fast in the UAE Derby at least as compared to older horses the Dubai World Cup later on the card. I presume that might mean that his pace performance was also above average. If so, he might be the sole frontrunner.

UAE @ 1900 meters : 23.78 /46.88 / 1:11.28 / 1:35.98 / 1:54.19 (racing post denoted fast by .99)
DWC @ 2000 meters : 23.48 / 45.78 / 1:09.88 / 1:30.78 / 2:01.63 (racing post denoted fast by .55)

When I looked into the UAE Derby I came up with the above fractions. Using the same run-up time... I backed into the Dubai World Cup.

You have to respect that my napkin math was piked off of a youtube video. (buyer beware!) They sort of make sense if you consider how deep Ushba Tesoro sat at the 1/4 - 1/2... and looks to me like 4.5 to 5 lengths back at the pace call. That race fell apart.

Having watched the Japanese horses work yesterday... I think Lemaire is going to use continuar as his yard stick. If I was Christophe... my plan would be to sit off of Continuar and adjust to be in striking distance at 6 furlongs. Just my opinion... but I don't think Derma is going to the front. I could be very wrong though. If you asked me a week ago... I honestly thought he likely to take the lead. They gunned continuar out of the gate from the parking lot of the UAE.
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Old 04-27-2023, 08:04 PM   #10
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I count eight of these that have won wire to wire, or very nearly so. A few only did it once, some of those in their maiden debut.

Kingsbarns and Jace's Road have the weakest late pace rating from TFUS. Jace's only non-maiden win was on the lead in the Gun Runner. Surely they'll be seeking the front early?

Confidence Game's only two wins on a dry track were wire-to-wire. It has the third weakest late pace rating.

Reincarnate's two wins were on the lead.

Verifying is more of a close presser (although it's the only one dubbed "leader" by TFUS, and "E" by BRIS), but it's fourth lowest late pace, so it doesn't want to chase many. Practical Move will probably be up there pressing hard. Rocket Can has been close.

That's four that could make a strong case for the lead, and three right there with them. Maybe one of the longer shots will send in desperation.

Thing is, there aren't many one-run closers or plodders, either. Sun Thunder, Angel of Empire, and Skinner stay back and come late. Half the field is designated "midpack" by TFUSónone "closer" or "plodder." Only three designated "S" by BRIS.

At least half the field has passed fewer than six horses. Only two have passed more than eightóand one of those was Mage making up for a slow break rather than a preferred running style. Yet there are 20 horses in the field.

I can't imagine anyone really want to pass a dozen horses, but they can't all have only five in front of them. We may not get a speed duel, but looks like we'll get some kind of musical chairs battle not to wind up in the back third of the pack with the three more comfortable being there. Won't that press the midpack mob forward somehow?

Do I think the pace is going to be fast? Maybe not, but I don't think anyone can afford to let it go slow.
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Old 04-28-2023, 05:02 AM   #11
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Is Brisnet actually correct with the running style designations?
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Old 04-28-2023, 08:56 AM   #12
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yes

Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I just did a quick glance of the PPs. It doesn't look like there are any true front runners in the field. There are several horses that tend to race near the lead that might occasionally take the lead if the pace is comfortable or circumstances allow for it, but no real speed horses. The very large field practically ensures that a couple of them will be used a little early to secure position, but someone could get away a little easier than expected or someone could get compromised by being too far back unless someone pushes.

Anyone think the pace is going to be fast?
Yes, I do think the pace is going to be fast.

these are obvious things, but I'll post for beginners or maybe someone who isn't sure exactly what I mean;

1. it is the Kentucky Derby (should be self explanatory but it's a big deal/event)
2. $3,000,000 (nice purse accelerates things a bit)
3. Twenty horses (if this were $3M Purse and the same billionaires had control of a couple horses in a five horse turf graded stakes, maybe it would be slow by design? w/ 20 always have more Competition and chaos and less guarantee of dream position or a choreographed effort)
4. Some of the horses capable of being forward are owned and/or trained as uncoupled entries or interconnected relatedness entries. (without necessarily blowing their own chances, their 'honest' pace ensures a better setup for their 'team').
5. Continuar - although he hasn't been a leader on form or necessarily proven that he has Derby-pace quickness, there is a threat of him being used/forced to set up his stablemate. Japan experimented last year with influencing the pace of the Derby, and Derma Sotogake is their hope in this year's Derby, and they seem to be training with Continuar setting a target. Continuar may not even be used this way, but horseplayers should be aware.


It's all relative. You know.... Compared to 2022 Kentucky Derby, it's obvious that it is highly probable that this race will be 'slow'. Compared to many of the preps and typical races, it's obvious that it is highly probable to be considered 'fast'.

A slug like Barber Road or Rich Strike was unlikely to get a setup in the 2022 Derby, and it is extremely unlikely that they will this year.
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Old 04-28-2023, 10:19 AM   #13
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From what I've read, and hopefully someone with some skills can confirm, Derma Sotogake ran exceptionally fast in the UAE Derby at least as compared to older horses the Dubai World Cup later on the card. I presume that might mean that his pace performance was also above average. If so, he might be the sole frontrunner.
It was unquestionably a fast race relative to the typical gap between the 3yo and older horses on that day. The final margin between 1-2-3 also indicates it was probably fast. So I think we can be reasonably comfortable it was fast.

When I watch the replay, I see a couple of riders urging their horses enough early to assume they weren’t going slow, but without knowing how much speed those horse actually have it’s hard to know if they were going fast.

CJ made some estimated pace and speed figures. Maybe he’ll post them here.

The thing I like about Derma is that he has some speed, but he can also sit and finish if the pace gets aggressive.

The thing I don’t like about him is that last race looks like it was a big lifetime top. If he can duplicate it, IMO a he has to be considered a serious contender, but he may have peaked one race too soon. Off a big top like that, maybe he’ll back off a little.

I’ll probably wind up using him, maybe a little more than some of the other contenders.
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Old 04-28-2023, 10:44 AM   #14
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Is Brisnet actually correct with the running style designations?
I would not rely on them for any serious betting.
Better to take the few minutes and assign them yourself.
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Old 04-28-2023, 11:44 AM   #15
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With the pace fiasco from last year, do you think they will send Derma?

Will there be an over compensation?

The best horses seem to be closers. But if a moderate pace?

GL
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