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04-07-2023, 09:45 AM
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#16
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
another examply
Code:
FACTOR>>>= 0.99 WIN BET
DATE TRACK RACE # PRNO
4/5 TAM 1 4
5
eliminate the 4 and 5 from the matrix |
after reviewing the data, I see this play presented a somewhat unique condition.
the 4 was the favorite with a bet size rating exceeding 15 and won.
checking back over many similar plays I determined the play should be the fav to win and the exacta of the fav/all my selected plays. the horse with a bet factor >=15 takes precedence in play design and the formulas have been adjusted accordingly
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-07-2023, 07:16 PM
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#17
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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example of win and exacta play
Code:
FACTOR>>>= 1.16 WIN BET RACE EXACTA COMBINATIONS AND BET SIZES
DATE TRACK RACE # PRNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 SUM, WIN BET SIZE
4/7 GG_ 6 6 $10.26 $0.00 $5.68 $1.73 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.68
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-07-2023, 07:30 PM
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#18
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
example of win and exacta play
Code:
FACTOR>>>= 1.16 WIN BET RACE EXACTA COMBINATIONS AND BET SIZES
DATE TRACK RACE # PRNO 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 SUM, WIN BET SIZE
4/7 GG_ 6 6 $10.26 $0.00 $5.68 $1.73 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $17.68
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6/4 exacta wins
$1 win return $2.90
$1 exacta returned $1.75
win bet size $17.68
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-13-2023, 11:54 AM
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#19
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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For what it's worth to anyone, I just discovered that any of my formulas using the exacta tote board dollars for fields larger that 8 horses is incorrect. I made the error.
I have about perhaps 250 races to correct!!! 
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 04-13-2023 at 12:02 PM.
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04-13-2023, 02:09 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Well good thing you haven't wagered an actual dollar during this time.
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04-13-2023, 03:32 PM
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#21
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,917
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Just more of the same...
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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04-14-2023, 09:22 AM
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#22
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SaratogaFan1
Join Date: Mar 2022
Posts: 356
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Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg
Just more of the same...
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04-14-2023, 09:53 AM
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#23
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by $w1fT
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Apparently you need your eyes examined.
However I wish you the best.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-14-2023, 09:56 AM
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#24
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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So far the results are improving. Go figure
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-16-2023, 08:58 AM
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#25
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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AS POSTED "LIVE" IN THE SELECTION FORUM
results when "factor">=1.50
FLAT BET $1 RETURN $0.89
MY "FACTOR BET SIZE">=1.50 $1 RETURN $1.16
MY "BET SIZE" $1 RETURN $1.30
MY $1 EXACTA RETURN $1.60
7 WINS IN 10 PLAYS=70% WINNERS
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-25-2023, 10:42 AM
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#26
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I have reviewed 218 races and feel confident about the race results both before and after 4/14/2023, the date I found the error in fields greater than eight betting interest. There are more races to review, however here are the current results. To accommodate the error correction, I needed to recalculate the “bet size” which now requires a min bet size figure of >=60. The “factor” remains the same, >=1.50
Out of the 218 races there were 20 favorite winners in 26 races, with bet size figure >=60 and factor>=1.50
$ flat bet return was $1.12, my bet size $1 return was $1.13.
Considering I may have a good idea of when the favorite may win, it seems I may have developed a profitable formula when to be against the favorite.
Three conditions are required, bh figure >=3, bet size <30 and factor <1.50
There were 14 winners in 21 plays, for a $1 return $1.37
So there you have it. A total of 47 playable races out of 218 races.
I have been posting my plays in the Selections Forum.
Using ATRpro, all betting is determined immediately after one minute to post.
I have about another previous 300 races to review beyond the daily plays posted to the Selections Forum.
Hopefully after 500 plays, requiring a review of about 2300 races, the condition stand up for providing a beautifully fitted bell cure, with favorite winners in one tale and betting against the favorite in the other.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-30-2023, 09:41 AM
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#27
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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beating the favorite results.
277 races reviewed.
24 playable races, 16 winners
66% winners
$1 return =$1.24
the favorite won but 2 times in the 26 races
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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04-30-2023, 09:59 AM
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#28
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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playing the favorite results.
277 races reviewed.
38 playable races, 29 winners
76% winners
$1 return =$1.19
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-05-2023, 11:28 AM
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#29
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
beating the favorite results.
277 races reviewed.
24 playable races, 16 winners
66% winners
$1 return =$1.24
the favorite won but 2 times in the 26 races
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OVER 300 RACES REVIEWED
38 PLAYABLE RACES, 25 WINS
66% WINNERS
$1 RETURN 1.20
THE FAVORITE WON BUT 5 TIMES IN 38 PLAYABLE RACES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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05-06-2023, 07:49 AM
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#30
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
playing the favorite results.
277 races reviewed.
38 playable races, 29 winners
76% winners
$1 return =$1.19
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over 300 races reviewed
47 playable races, 32 winners
68% winners
$1 return =$1.09
$1 exacta return =$1.09
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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